Lindsey Graham, waffle

Lindsey Graham has no problem with Let's Go Brandon's skin color basis for choosing a Supreme Court nominee to replace retiring justice Breyer.  David Rubin says it's a shock. Really its not. I mean what Graham said on the surface is not caving.  As David Rubin points out, there are likely many qualified candidates within the universe of black women candidates for the role.  But it's pandering.  It's a cave.  There's no reason Graham could not have stated that and still made a point about qualified black women.

Sunday verse

 

The ubiquity of cowardice

 For your consideration.

Meanwhile in Canada

Meanwhile in Canada, truckers have started a protest rally that has grown into a substantially broader anti-mandate protest:

Top Heavy Industry in America

I've never been a fan of Carl Icahn because I've had this perception of him being this ruthless, cutthroat man who buys companies, breaks them up and makes a profit off of the destruction.  Maybe my perception has been wrong, maybe it's been right, I don't know.  But despite being a stalwart conservative, I'm open minded (as most conservatives are to new ideas and opinions - you can't reject an idea like socialism if you don't understand it first).  So being open minded I decided to watch this video of Carl Icahn talking about why he fired 12 floors of people.

Even if I was completely right about him, I can still admit he's right about this - American businesses are top heavy and it's a big part of the problem. 

I think the part he misses out on is when he says it's nobody's fault.  In America the government demands a level of beaurocracy in support of business that is burdensome.  Some of those people in those buildings were undoubtedly there to support cumbersome accounting and risk functions that relate to government regulation.  The people who work there were likely people who got degrees from educational institutions where a political ideology that supports bigger government, more regulation and impositions on businesses that make less competitive not only domestically but internationally.  Some (not all) of those people would carry that indoctrination forward into the workplace and reinforce the need for more and more burdensome requirements within the company.  The CEOs who get huge salaries (often while barely being able to compete) are beholden to shareholders with short term views on profit and dividends rather than longer term growth strategies.  The market demands that and some of the blame can be found in that as well.

And if you get right down to it, the market demands that because human nature demands that.  But maybe not.   Other nations are not all short term focused. The Chinese Communist Party may have been snuffed out if not for The Long March.  They had understood that every day is not a victory.  That long term victory is more important than short term success.  Short term success may be an inherent weakness of capitalism.  It may be THE inherent weakness of capitalism.  That does not make capitalism wrong, it makes it vulnerable.  Perhaps that what government should be trying to address rather than systemic racism, or gender inclusivity or making sure the next Supreme Court nominee has to be a black woman (I'm looking at you Let's Go Brandon).  Understanding this weakness is not only understanding a risk, it's uncovering an opportunity - an opportunity to gird the strength of capitalism by addressing a weakness through policy. Perhaps somehow incenting long term investors through tax policy would be a good idea for example.

Meanwhile I will remove my existing judgment of Carl Icahn and before pronouncing any opinion, I will circle back to him after further review.  

Dave Rubin talks Canada trucker protest

My home and native land, despite my preference for America. Our sad excuse for a Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is conveniently COVID isolating as the convoy is going to reach Ottawa.  If it's a small fringe of people as he says, he would be willing to be there to face them down.

Kudos to Dave Rubin (and the Daily Wire) for highlighting this.

The fierce urgency of Let's Go Brandon

Dinesh D'Souza makes the case for the urgency of disempowering the enablers of the Let's Go Brandon administration in congress.

The Do Nothing Fed

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell announced nothing new.  No rate hike, but it's coming soon.  We've heard that before. This was a do nothing announcement. 

Woke media is killing America

Batya Ungar-Sargon, Deputy Opinion Editor of Newsweek, and definitely liberal, argues that woke media has undermined democracy, undermined America and will continue to do so if it remains unchecked. I disagree with much of her premise around systemic racism, but if a left-leaning liberal who beliefs are like that sees issues with woke-ism, then it's a real problem.

More supply chain issues

 I'm not sure this supply chain disruption by government mandate is deliberate. If it is, it's evil but if it just unintended consequences of an ill-conceived policy decision, it's downright stupid. It will be inflationary for both Canada and the United States, and it will mean less product for consumers in both countries, especially with respect to food.

A scenario I had not considered

Russia and China both invade Ukraine and Taiwan respectively, knowing Let's Go Brandon has crumbled on Ukraine in advance.    I previously discussed with friends that there are reasons neither country would invade but the reality has changed since then. Namely, the perception of the U.S. as still having some backbone, is crumbling.

Sunday verse

 

Good news

I haven't posted since Sunday, it's been an extremely busy week for me for a number of reasons, and it continues to be the case. In the interim, here's a good news projection for the 2022 election cycle from Red Eagle Politics.

The downside of the story is that thanks to some poor redistricting in some states, and some regional entrenchment, there is an upper boundary to how many seats the GOP can pick up in congress and the senate.  It doesn't matter if a GOP candidate in a liberal district loses 51-49 instead of 71-29.  A loss is a loss.  Speaking of which, state redistricting in Republican states was not as aggressive as it should have been.  So here's some free advice for state and local Republicans -  when you win, act like winners!! The Democrats have no compunction about doing so and that's why you are always ceding ground, not taking ground in the Overton window battle. Oh and conservative voters; you have to be more involved.  Get involved in the primaries and elect conservatives not RINOs. Just my two cents.

On other damper on the good tidings; this is January not November.  There's lots of time for things to change, for the better or worse. 

Sunday verse

 

SCOTUS killed the unlawful vaccine mandate

 In case you missed it, Ben Shapiro and others at The Daily Wire gleefully (and rightfully so)  summarize:

A fantastic discussion from Tim Pool et. al.

Tim and regulars Ian, Luke, and Lydia were joined by author and editor of Newsweek Batya Ungar-Sargon to discuss what it happening to CNN's ratings.  But the discussion went well beyond that into the media in general and what has happened to it.  CNN's ratings are merely a reflection of what preceded that in the news media behind the scenes.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is going to fudge it on inflation in 2022

Interesting: the Bureau of Labor Statistics has a couple of Notices on their Consumer Price Index page. One note indicates that "Starting in January 2022, weights for the Consumer Price Index will be calculated based on consumer expenditure data from 2019-2020. The BLS considered interventions, but decided to maintain normal procedures."   That's interesting. During the COVID lockdowns people bought a lot more toilet paper initially, but the most impactful change would be the reduction of fuel usage, particularly gasoline, as people were forced to stay at home, vastly reducing fuel expenditures.  This as fuel prices have started to skyrocket in 2021 and 2022. In other words, they are going to try to dampen or hide the inflation numbers they are going to share by treating it as a smaller factor in consumer spend, by using fuel expenditures during the height of COVID lockdowns as part of the calculation.  During COVID that share of spend most definitely shrunk, dramatically. That effect will take about two years to work it's way through the system, disappearing in a presidential election year.

Let's Go Brandon.

The other note states "Each year with the release of the January CPI, seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated to reflect price movements from the just-completed calendar year. This routine annual recalculation may result in revisions to seasonally adjusted indexes for the previous 5 years. Recalculated seasonally adjusted indexes as well as recalculated seasonal adjustment factors for the period January 2017 through December 2021 will be made available on Tuesday, February 8, 2022."

This one is a bit trickier because they have not yet posted any of the adjustments as of yet. What they do is take an item in a basket of consumer goods like say potatoes, and adjust it's cost impact based on the month of the year.  In January for example they might see it at 98.928 and in July at 103.920 but seasonally adjusted factors to smooth the months, it might be factored instead at 98.921 in January and 103.946 in July.  This sort of tweaking is done to smooth the rate towards a more annualized sort of number and make it less volatile.

That alone is not a problem.  The issue arises when they use it for politics.  There are so many items that factor into the total number that it is fairly easy to hide the fudging.  And keep in mind that this is something they typically do annually. It may amount to nothing.  It may even be a distraction from their other note.  But if some of the numbers are significantly different from what they used in 2021, it is a sign of malfeasance. The problem is that it will probably be  hard to find.   Stay tuned.

Inflation and other factors mean Sour Times in America

Prepare for a period of sour times in America. The 12-month percentage change of inflation was 7% for December.   Think about that.  The target rate according to the Federal Reserve Board's target rate is 2%. Instead we've had the Let's Go Brandon administration and the monetary establishment give us this:

That chart is scarier than I had predicted.  I thought 2023 might be year we see steep increases in inflation. Nope. 2021. Energy alone was up 29.3%. I recently said it was going to be bad, repeating what I've said many times in fact. If energy is up that much, and it continues to be up, it will have a downstream effect of food prices, and everything else. Energy is the lifeblood of everything. It takes energy to get food to your door. Energy costs are embedded in everything. But with the Fed having trillions of dollars (almost 9 trillion in fact) on it's balance sheet, effectively money printing (which takes a bit of explaining - for a decent explanation check here -- and ignore the incorrect conclusion).

Now The Fed has to do something and it appears they will. Slowly. They'll start running off some of the 'assets'  on their balance sheet along with decreasing the pace of increasing it in the interim. Yeah, they're that late to the party. And Let's Go Brandon plans to re-nominate Jerome Powell to his current role. This is more of the same, more "nothing to see here", from the same crowd that told you almost a year ago that this inflation would be transitory.

Meanwhile, while the reported unemployment rate and the more telling U6 unemployment rate are returning towards pre-COVID levels, they have not reached Trumpian levels. Neither has the labor force participation rate, where we were seeing a turnaround of a decades long macro trend for the first time in decades: 

source: tradingeconomics.com

Things do not look normal by any stretch. Given the inflation, given the soft stance on trade deficits by the Let's Go Brandon administration, expect to see offshoring return. Perhaps due to energy prices affecting transportation costs, it might move to Mexico instead of China. The effect is the same. Unemployment. Rising costs mean rising prices. Businesses have few levers to pull, but one of the biggest is labor. Shifting to part time and offshoring are two options but ones that hurt American workers.

This is good news for Republicans but unfortunately at the expense of the economy.  But if they can win the House and Senate this November, which is looking very possible, perhaps they can work on turning the situation around.

The medicine is going to be painful, but it's something that is necessary.  Higher interest rates.  Much higher interest rates.  That has it's own costs and fallout including bankruptcies, a soaring government debt burden, and mortgage foreclosures. But if the bleeding can be condensed to a 12-18 month period, it could halt inflation and return us to a normal growth economy fairly quickly.  Then underlying macroeconomic issues like the trade deficit and the Debt-to-GDP ratio could be a little more easily addressed. Of course that demands a return to normalcy from the COVID-aided mass psychosis sweeping the globe.

Are America's best days still ahead?  At this point I am not optimistic about the current state of the union. There's still a light of hope, but it keeps getting further away. It's a very different feeling than during the Trump years. What we need is more people to wake up and demand change. 

Is it going to be a red wave in 2022?

 Here are three views on what is going to happen in the midterm elections. First Tim Pool explains why he sees a red wave coming.

Next, Red Eagle Politics discusses what he sees as the best case for Republicans in 2022 in the senate and governorship races:

And lastly, the left-leaning Let's Talk Elections has a reasonable assessment of what he sees as the 2022 senate scenario that's shaping up.  Kudos to him for being even-handed in his assessment.

Keep in mind it's still very early.  But the tea leaves in the form of the generic ballot are currently leaning Republican (which is rare in polls), and the Let's Go Brandon sentiment is also quite strong at the moment.  There would have to be something very positive for Democrats on the horizon to swing the mood in the opposite direction it's headed now. And I don't think that's going to happen.

CDC got it wrong on vaccine efficacy

David Rubin talks about Rochelle Walensky of the CDC appearing on TV admitting they got it wrong. Meanwhile on Joe Rogan's,  show Dr. Robert Malone talked about mass formation psychosis. It's amazing how the ceaseless one size fits all narrative of the left is being destroyed by the omnicron variant of COVID-19.

Inflation is going to hurt

The inflation rate in the United States has passed the point of V1 (that's the term that pilots use to indicate takeoff speed) inflation. Under president Trump inflation had an annual rate of 2.1% in 2017, 2.4% in 2018, 1.8% in 2019, 1.2% in 2020. Let's Go Brandon took office in January of 2021.  In that month the rate of inflation was 1.4%.  Since then it's taken flight.  In April the rate of inflation jumped from 2.6% to 4.2%.   They said it was transitory as things went back to normal following COVID.

Then in May it hit 5%, in June and July 5.4%, after a 0.1% drop in August it returned to 5.4% in September.  That's really bad. In October it hit 6.2% and in November 6.8%.  That's the worst rate of inflation since 1982.  But it's not over. The rate for December 2021 will be released tomorrow morning.  Don't expect it to be good.  It may be lower than November, but I doubt it.  In the end though it won't matter because the inflation rate for 2022 is going to be much higher than it will have been for 2021.  The Federal Reserve printed trillions of dollars during the COVID crisis. The Democrats meanwhile have tried to massively increase spending but have so far settled for less (not for lack of trying though). You cannot have that amount of dollar bills arbitrarily added to the system and not have each dollar that exists be worth slightly less as a result.  You have diluted the value of each dollar bill.  That causes inflation.  It's going to be bad.  My hope is that it is not going to be unbelievably bad, but I'm leaning towards slight pessimism at this point.

Jeff Booth, despite claiming he's an optimist, seems to be even more pessimistic than me, at least in the near to mid term.

Doug Masterino announce runs for PA governor

 He announced yesterday. This is good news.

AOC gets COVID, but not the irony of it

 There's not really anything that needs to be added to this:

Sunday verse

 

Infiltration of conservative media

I subscribe to SiriusXM satellite radio. My favorite channel is the Patriot Channel.  They focus on conservative shows in the mold of Rush Limbaugh.  There are a number of great shows and hosts.  My concern is the news.  The News is done by an ostensibly conservative source - TownHall.com So when I'm listening to the news and I hear them incorporating leftist talking points it makes me cringe.  Is someone infiltrating conservative 'news sources'?

This morning in talking about the January 6th capitol fiasco (not riots), TownHall news referred to them as the "deadly January 6th riots". Technically there was at least one death but to hear them framed that way on a purportedly conservative news source is as maddening as anything Liz Cheney has ever said or done. They are playing into the hands of Democrats who claim this is the worst event ever on American soil. 9/11? ANTIFA? Pearl Harbor? The Civil War? You are feeding that lunacy by not calling it out and by using terminology that Saul Alinsky himself would be proud to have written.

Have they been co-opted or infiltrated by the left?  Are they influenced by or partnered with the anti-Trump establishment Republicans?  I don't know the answer but I am nonetheless perplexed that TownHall is doing it, even if they are unaware it is happening.   And why is anyone on SiriusXM Patriot channel not challenging it? Are they being silenced or are they perhaps not listening to the news broadcasts on their own channel?  I doubt any of the conservative hosts would agree with that as the correct characterization of events that day.

Manchin's no hero for conservatives, but then again he is

Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia has been one of the stalwarts holding up the Let's Go Brandon "Build Back Better" debacle of a massive spending bill for months.  Conservatives should be thankful that he's standing on principle and not caving to the AOCs, Pelosis and Schumers of the Democratic party. In fact there has been talk of co-opting him into the Republican party.  Hold up conservatives, not so fast. He's not a sudden new hero for the future, he's just a hero for right now.  This is just a marriage of convenience.

The reason that Joe Manchin has surged on popularity with Republicans is not a result of some awakening or slow drift to the right on his part, but rather his view of his own West Virginia electoral base. True, Manchin has publicly claimed he is no liberal.  But that extends only as far as the fact that the liberal wing of the Democrat party has openly drifted so far left as to be an absurdity. Manchin is blocking the Let's Go Brandon agenda only because it's anti-coal. Manchin is pro-coal because his voters are pro-coal, in turn because his state is a coal state. That's just self-preservation. So standing on those principles is not a sudden conversion to common sense.  In fact, Manchin already has common sense; with regard to his own political positions and their impact on his electability. 

Take a look at his recent surge in voter approval within his state, it comes from carving out a position aligned with his state voters and not his Democratic colleagues. Manchin is to be fair, an old school Democrat and much further to the right than his party; he's generally pro-business, pro right to life and pro 2nd amendment. But if he were to switch parties he would not be a stalwart conservative Republican. As a reference point, the ACLU rated him 100% and the Republican Liberty Caucus rated him at 43%.  These are not ringing endorsements to conservative ears.

To be sure, we have common cause with Manchin at the moment, and we should support his efforts to withstand the onslaught from his fellow party members. But while to work with him where possible is a good idea, to embrace him would be a mistake. Remember, he voted with the Democrats to impeach president Trump on a bogus made-up scandal.  He has repeatedly voted against a repeal of Obamacare. Meanwhile West Virginia has shifted presidentially so far right since the 1990's as to be a potential senatorial pick up for Republicans in 2024. Minus Manchin, the state would almost certainly have elected a Republican to the senate seat long ago. 

In 2024, Manchin will be 77 by the time the election rolls around. It's not clear if he would run again but if he did he would likely win again.  At that point, it may be worthwhile making a deal, with Manchin - if it makes political sense to do so. If he doesn't run again, the senate seat by all rights will flip to Republican anyway.  A GOP candidate from the state is far more likely to support a patriot type agenda than Manchin would ever do. Ronald Reagan said that the person who agrees with you 80% of the time is a friend and ally, not a 20% traitor. That is not the situation with Manchin.  He's not a bad guy per se, but having perhaps 50% common cause with him does not make him an outright conservative ally.

Turns out Johnny Cash hated anti-war hippies...

Johnny Cash doesn't hold back in this newly unearthed 1967 audio interview:

"Let's Take That From Them"

Progressives are forward-thinking. For real. Luckily (or perhaps unfortunately) the way they are forward thinking is limited to the political sphere, and even then it's not in all ways.  When it comes to the long game of converting hearts and minds, they have been out-thinking conservatives for many decades. By sheer synergy of art and liberalism, the left has had a near monopoly on the entertainment industry for most of the past century. They've used it as a tool to subtly (originally) and then more overtly (now) to try to mold public opinion towards their viewpoint.  The same has essentially been true for journalism and the news media in general. At one point they still possessed the underpinning of needing to tell the truth. No longer.  They've realized (erroneously) that lies work better than the truth. Still, they were forward-thinking on that point. They realized that Hitler's Big Lie worked pretty well, so why not do it now in the name of social justice and progressivism?

And here's where their forward thinking has been especially effective; they realized that there is no better place to indoctrinate the uninitiated than school children, where they could have unfettered access to young minds for six hours a day. So they set about taking control of the agendas of schools.  The idea was to own participants (mainly the school boards and the unions), then force education to be what they want in exchange for re-election, higher pay and more job security. The taxpayers would fund it and progressives get their agenda both subsidized and ingrained in generation after generation until The Big Lie becomes the perceived truth. It's evil, but it's brilliant.

They didn't stop there though, what they have done, in arena after arena, is to look at what social structures conservatives still possess (e.g. churches, sports, corporations (including Big Tech) and some types of clubs/organizations like the Boy Scouts), and they said to themselves "Let's take that from them." And where they felt they could not succeed, they would simply choose to erode interest or support in those organizations. It's sinister, but it's brilliant.

Immigrants, primarily from socialist-leaning South and Central America were encouraged to come, legally or otherwise.  It was a short-cut to an overwhelming demographic advantage. Let businesses get away with below-minimum-wage pay because they can help fund the  ideological invasion. It's immoral, but it's brilliant.

And so for decades, they have effectively and systematically take one conservative social construct after another, and subverted it to their own agenda. They did so for most of that time subtly, imperceptibly and slowly, as if it were some sort of long march.  They were playing the long game and conservatives and even moderates and many liberals did not notice.

Now however, could be the point where their whole agenda collapses.  Because with the advent of president Obama, they undertook an effort to rapidly accelerate that drift towards socialism. In the last decade they have ramped up their efforts so drastically that it is now out in the open. They may have thought they had achieved overwhelming numerical and tactical superiority that there was no longer any reason to be covert about their efforts.  They were wrong.

The openness of their nonsensible advance towards Marxism is easy for all to see. They've overplayed their hand and now been caught in the midst of it. They are more victims of their own success and of a conservative counter-cultural revolution, in that their over-reach has been the birth of a counter-revolution. They have gone about re-creating what they sought to destroy. They have given birth to not just a potential red wave in 2022, but also a conscious understanding among regular Americans that they it is time to not only push back, but work to reverse the flow of a change that has been for the far worse. And yet they do not see it. In the face of resistance they double down, invoke the slurs of racism, sexism or any other 'ism' they can throw at it.  And they have created their own echo chambers and continue to believe they are winning and only need to continue accelerating towards the communist goalposts. They are sure they are that close, despite this awakening of conservatives to realize they must work hard to defeat this. They are sure it is within reach despite many moderates coming to the realization that this is bad, and even liberals starting to question where this is all headed and why so quickly. They are seeing people jump ship from socialism. They are saying not "Let's take that from them" but rather "Let's take back our country to when it worked." In other words, let's Make America Great Again.

The irony of it all is perhaps immoral to enjoy, but it's brilliant.

Consensus is not science

Consensus is not science. Einstein's theory of relativity is widely believed to be the most accurate model of space time we have.  But it's still just a theory because it has yet to be proven as a law of physics. That's not to discredit Einstein, but rather to point out that as advanced as his thinking was, as accurate as it was, as peer reviewed as it was, it is still not considered complete fact.  That's because it is not complete.  Perhaps if Einstein had another 100 years to work on it, he may have been able to do even more with it.  Unfortunately no one has that time, and others have had to take up the torch as it were. Einstein's view of space and time was in fact counter to the consensus at the time.

So far we have a theory of physics of the universe that explains a tremendous amount, but none of it is a Law.  We have laws of thermodynamics, the law of gravity, and other scientific laws but nothing so grandiose as to be able to claim "the science is settled".  Remember that Al Gore dictum about global warming?  It's the same now with Dr. Fauci proclaiming his word on COVID is law. Wear a mask, don't wear a mask, get a vaccination, get your 5th booster shot, now it's safe for kids.  He seems to think he's the king of science.

At one point the consensus was that the earth was flat and another consensus was that the universe revolved around the earth.  Now people like Fauci have taken the idea of consensus one step further to the point that the universe revolves around their dictates.

When someone tells you the science is settled, just tell them the earth is no longer flat. Any scientist who says something is inarguable is not a real scientist.  They want you to simply accept their opinion. The dangers in that extend far beyond the boundaries of science. After all, the man said it himself:

"Science can flourish only in an atmosphere of free speech." 

~  Albert Einstein

Sunday verse

 

2022 a potential retrospective

I'm not sure whether I'm optimistic or pessimistic about 2022.  On one hand there's another 3 years of dealing with the "Let's Go Brandon" administration.  On the other hand, it's expected that there will be a substantial red wave in the congressional elections. That should put a stop or at least a brake on Democrat overreach for the time being.  That is, if it materializes.  On top of that, a red wave comes with it's own downside; Brandon might not run in 2024 after a midterm trouncing.  I don't think, other than possibly Jimmy Carter, there has been a more beatable incumbent in  my lifetime. I want Let's Go Brandon to flail around aimlessly for another three years, to help ensure a massive Republican landslide in 2024 across the board.

Here's another potential pitfall, if the Republicans come in and do too well, some of the credit will unfairly land with the ineffectual incumbent among low information voters. Their success may be their own undoing if that happens. You know the likes of CNN, after bashing Republican legislative efforts will anoint any successes upon the Let's Go Brandon administration.

Still my recommendation would be investigate, censure sure, but do not impeach him.  If he's gone there's no way Kamala Harris runs in 2024, and then you are into wildcard territory with the next presidential election. The next Democrat might look as appealing to Democrat voters as did Brandon at one point. You don't want that.  Let the Democrats marinate in their own 2020 mistake. It can only help. Pile on a little, but mostly stand back and let their mistakes compound rather than give them a common enemy to rally against.

Then there's still also COVID-19 Omnicron panic or more correctly, societal abuse among the establishment media and power elites. They don't want society returning to normal. Not when their mantra includes "never let a crisis go to waste".  That will continue to ebb away in terms of general panic though.  It just cannot be sustained outside of the most Karen-y among us.

Then there's inflation. It's going to continue to get worse for quite some time before it gets better.  2022 is not that 'better' time frame. We might get to QE47 (the 47th attempt at Quantitative Easing by the Federal Reserve) before 'better' happens. But seriously, it ain't happening this year. Maybe 2023 or 2024.

And you've got to combine the COVID next after next lockdown panic with the supply chain mismanagement and you've got a recipe for rising unemployment in 2022. Inflation plus unemployment is stagflation. It's not supposed to happen and the odiferous Jimmy Carter was the poster boy for that.  He may end up supplanted by Let's Go Brandon as the king of the horrible economy.

Then there's Russian aggression in the Ukraine and China's hunger to take Taiwan. Despite the feckless and brainless Let's Go Brandon, I don't think either of those situations will come to fighting in 2023. All Brandon has to do is endorse Ukrainian membership in NATO and Russia will be forced to back down.  Of course Brandon has a history of intervening in the Ukraine, but always on the wrong side of justice, so maybe he won't. That's the the risk that Russia might act on it's territorial expansion in 2023. It's possible, but I'd say at best the odds are 50/50.  

As for China, they have serious economic challenges to focus on.  That's a distraction from Taiwan.  Unlike in America, using a war as a distraction a la Bill Clinton, is not necessary.  China owns the media.  But they have to focus on their own brewing economic issues first. Yes Taiwan might help in that regard BUT, only if things go perfectly smoothly for them in an invasion and takeover scenario. That is far from guaranteed. The possibility that the economy gets so bad China wants to take over Taiwanese semi-conductor production and hold the world hostage based on a monopoly exists but again that scenario is probably further out in time than 2022. I'd say at best there's a 33% chance China invades. At best.

Lastly, Betty White will not make it to her 100th birthday sadly.  But that's a strike against late 2021 not 2022.

So am I going to look back retrospectively on 2022 as a good year at this point next year? No.  But I don't think it will be bad either.  It's looking like a definite mixed bag year.  After an abysmal year of Let's Go Brandon, I'll take that as an improvement.