October 20, 2020

More misleading evidence of Biden's electoral prowess

There's a poll out today in Michigan from MIRS/Mitchell Research that shows an uptick in Joe Biden's lead:


Biden +10?  Is it time to panic maybe?

Nope.  Back in 2016 the same pollster in the same window polled the following:


How did the state voting turn out? President Trump got 47.5% of the vote and Hillary Clinton got 47.3%. In other words they overstated Clinton's vote by 5.5% and understated president Trump's vote by 6.5%.  They were off by 12% total. And they had Clinton +12. If the same is the case in 2020, then we would expect to see the poll corrected to  Biden at 45.5% and Trump at 47.5%. That's a Trump win and improvement for Trump overall vs. his 2016 showing. 

When I look at valid polls in Michigan, and account for this bias (assuming it has not been corrected since 2016) I see Trump as high as +4.4% over three different valid polls.  While I do not believe it will be that high of a lead, I see him winning Michigan.

A few graphs that show a lot

 Back in 2016 the polls in the swing states tightened a lot in the swing states in the last couple of weeks.  The pollsters were predicting a Hillary rout of now president Trump.  But as election day neared they had to become more realistic or the pollsters risked their credibility.

Look what's happening in a few key swing states according the the RealClearPolitics averages (which are problematic in their own right) this time around and draw your own conclusions:

 





Sad news - Rush Limbaugh cancer has worsened

Yesterday I posted the good news that Jordan Peterson was on the mend and back making videos. Unfortunately we also got some less encouraging news from the one and only Rush Limbaugh. I pray he can still recover.

Rush Limbaugh's stage 4 lung cancer has progressed "in the wrong direction," the conservative commentator and radio host announced. 

More than eight months after revealing his diagnosis, Limbaugh, 69, said Monday on his radio show that his new health developments weren't "dramatic," but had nevertheless recently worsened.

"The idea now is to keep it where it is or maybe have it reduce again," he said, according to a transcript on his website. "We’ve shown that that is possible. If it happened once, it can happen again. So that’s the objective of the current treatment plan."

Limbaugh announced in early February that he had been diagnosed with "advanced lung cancer," confirmed by "two medical institutions back on Jan. 20." Speaking Monday, he said at the time, he did not believe he'd live past September.

October 19, 2020

Jordan Peterson returns

Jordan Peterson coming back from ill health is a wonderful thing, for him, for conservatives, and for humanity.

Something to see here folks

Nothing Something to see here folks:


The Bidens are like an organized crime family in an extortion racket that also owns mainstream media.

Addendum: The reaction?  Biden panics and goes into hiding.

October 18, 2020

EXCLUSIVE: Joe Biden's son emailed shop owner about hard drive to 'get it back'

 Via Sky News Australia:

This week in censorship

 Mark Dice shares the frustration.

This is what being woke should look like

 This woman is really thinking about what's going on. This is such a well done video.

The psychology of crowd momentum

This is fascinating from a psychological or sociological perspective. And it has deep implications for politics. One guy dancing weird is, well, weird.  But when a second guy joins it becomes a little less weird and after the third guy joins it becomes a flood.  It's now okay to join in. And at some point, maybe it becomes unacceptable to leave.


A better view of the crowd joining:

Sunday verse

 


October 17, 2020

Hunter Biden -Joe Biden corruption scandal is slow-rolling away his chances of winning

This may not kill Joe Biden's chances of winning the White House, but it should.  Then again a lot of there things should have done so already.

Saturday Learning Series - Geography (Netherlands)

 Netherlands:


October 16, 2020

One of the best videos of 2020

 This guy's enthusiasm is infectious.  His positivity is off the charts. And his logic is highly persuasive.  As someone mentioned in the comments, president Trump should get this guy on his staff. He's that good.


Share this with your unconvinced friends. Please.

Friday Musical Interlude - one for the Democrat voters

 STRFKR's Open Your Eyes from 2016:

October 15, 2020

Twitter and Facebook are acting in an evil manner right now

 Evil Big Tech:

More election malfeasance at Twitter

 This would be on the verge of being criminal if subverting your own moral imperative were a crime.

Another view on the reasons the polls don't make sense

Biden won't win.  Here's another view of why, Biden is not a juggernaut but they would have you believe that.

October 14, 2020

Obama hack Bruce Ohr out at DOJ

This comes a few years too late, but still good news: 

Facebook in high gear to protect Biden

Communications @Facebook Andy Stone on Twitter is hiding the bombshell from the NY Post about Hunter Biden and Joe Biden.

This is pure damage control.  In case you are not familiar with the breaking story:

Latest election round-up

Click to enlarge.
There have been a few new polls since my last update. Taking a look at the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the battleground states, president Trump currently has 250 electoral college votes while  Joe Biden currently has 237 electoral college votes and there are still 51 electoral college votes that have not yet been decided.*  

In the swing states the following results are observed:

-- Texas has a total of only 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up as a result. But Trump has 54.5% and Biden has 45.5% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 9.1%.    No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to the included polls.  But I'm assuming a Trump win.  The projected vote differential would be 579,250 in a regular turnout or 605,580 in a high turnout election.  

-- Florida has a total of 6 valid polls. Trump has 51.5% and Biden has 48.5% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 2.9%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 150,825 in a regular turnout or 157,681 in a high turnout election. 

-- Pennsylvania has a total of 4 valid polls. Trump has 50% and Biden has 50% of the weighted valid vote total. But Joe Biden leads by 0.1%.   Biden would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be a miniscule 2,748 in a regular turnout or 2,873 in a high turnout election. This state could be the difference in the election. 

-- Ohio has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 54.8% and Biden has 45.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 9.5%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 316,739 in a regular turnout or 331,136 in a high turnout election. 

-- Georgia has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 51.3% and Biden has 48.7% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 2.7%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 71,859 in a regular turnout or 75,125 in a high turnout election. 

-- Michigan has a total of 3 valid polls. Trump has 50.7% and Biden has 49.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 1.4%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 41,919 in a regular turnout or 43,824 in a high turnout election. 

-- North Carolina has a total of 3 valid polls. Trump has 49.3% and Biden has 50.7% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 1.5%.    Biden would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 42,295 in a regular turnout or 44,217 in a high turnout election. 

-- Virginia has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  I'm assuming a Biden win in the state. 

-- Arizona has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 52.2% and Biden has 47.8% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 4.4%.    No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  The projected vote differential would be 78,940 in a regular turnout or 82,528 in a high turnout election. 

-- Wisconsin has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 47.7% and Biden has 52.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 4.7%.    No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  The projected vote differential would be 80,595 in a regular turnout or 84,258 in a high turnout election. 

-- Minnesota has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls. 

-- Colorado has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls. 

-- Nevada has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls. 

-- Iowa has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 52.3% and Biden has 47.7% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 4.7%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 42,558 in a regular turnout or 44,492 in a high turnout election. 

-- New Mexico has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 42.6% and Biden has 57.4% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 14.8%.    No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  The projected vote differential would be 74,797 in a regular turnout or 78,197 in a high turnout election. 

-- New Hampshire has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 48.3% and Biden has 51.7% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 3.5%.    Biden would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 13,821 in a regular turnout or 14,450 in a high turnout election. 

-- Maine has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  Assuming a Trump win.  

*Based on the following parameters; polls taken in the last 17 days, with a sample size of at least 500 among likely voters, with a margin of error of less than 4.1%, among pollsters rated C- or better, using the Pollster Tracking by FiveThirtyEight.com, and removing 538's allocated pollster bias as well as my calculated temporal pro-Clinton bias vs. actual election results from 2016. States must have at least 2 valid polls to be considered.

I believe that president Trump will win Arizona bring his electoral college total to 261. He could also win North Carolina, New Hampshire, Minnesota and possibly Pennsylvania and Nevada. That gives him a lot of paths to victory. But in any of those states as well as Michigan I expect Democrats to mount legal proceedings to try to discount any of the president's victories.

That means this comes down to a legal battle, and the president will have to win more than 270-something or else it could be stolen.  But it's still possible that he gets as high as 326 electoral college votes if the election were held today.

This is gonna be another great Trump economic recovery

2021 is going to be an awesome economic year for the United States. The recovery to date under president Trump has been lightning fast and 2021 will be even better.


October 13, 2020

Amy Coney Barrett has a brilliant mind.

 The Supreme Court will be enhanced with her on board.

October 12, 2020

Electoral college and election night projection update

I've added a vote total component to my projection analysis and I've seen some interesting things to be a bit worried about. Remember, this is just a poll-driven analysis.  I'm only trying to account for poll errors and poll validity. With the addition of vote totals, I am looking at allocating the weighted average polling results for what I consider valid polls, on a  state by state basis.  It does not take into consideration registration changes, only Pew Research's state by state Republican/Democrat/Independent voter registration percentages (I have not paid for actual registration data because I am not rich).  These results are poll-viewed results, where I am unable to make a call in a state is it because there has not been enough valid polling being done in that state so far.  I expect a lot more polling to be done in the next three weeks and the valid data should be much more plentiful.

First the electoral college totals - I've refined my analysis to include only polls from the last 14 days, with 500 or more likely voters for sample sizes and a margin of error of 4% or less.  Including only those qualifying state polls, I have president Trump at 244 electoral college votes, Biden at 237 with 57  votes from states that are undetermined as of this moment - those being Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Texas I am assuming for Trump despite the lack of pollster information because even though there are many unknown pollsters, they are pretty much all clearly tipped towards the president.

Interestingly, after accounting for likely polling bias, I am seeing Michigan and Florida going for Trump but North Carolina going for Biden.  

There are also some interesting vote differential projections in both the regular and high turnout models. I am seeing a mere 10,000 vote win for president Trump in Florida. That's CLOSE. It's also something Democrats could paper over with mail in ballot malfeasance.

Pennsylvania I am seeing in Biden's column by 55,000 votes.  Georgia is in the president's column but by a mere 24,000 votes. Michigan he wins by only 11,000. Biden wins North Carolina by only 15,000 votes.  Despite only one valid poll, it would appear Trump will win the state by 80,000 votes.

The president's lead in Wisconsin would be smaller than 2016, winning the state by just 25,000 votes. According to the polls Biden would win New Hampshire by 16,000 votes but it's also possible that the vote differential could be less than 1000 votes.

The next three weeks are going to be very interesting.

COVID-19 and school choice


Every crisis is an opportunity. Democrats manage their crises that way. Conservatives and Republicans do not.  We have not taken advantage of COVID the way Democrats would have done were we enduring a Hillary Clinton administration.

Conservatives believe in border security and school choice. Conservatives have seen first hand the dangers of a tech monopolies. COVID was an opportunity to move the ball, in a massive way forward towards these  conservative principles and probably others too.

We didn't do it.  We never do and that's why we are always playing defense against a progressive onslaught.

For example the lockdowns and later teachers not wanting to be back in school was VERY FERTILE ground to move towards alternative education options and ultimately the viability of school choice as an option. It could have been part of any of the runs at a stimulus this year.

Conservatism is often equal to trying to keep America great by stopping change.  But liberty and other conservative principles were meant to be spread, not just protected and slowly eroded. 


October 11, 2020

October 10, 2020

October 9, 2020

Pence destroyed Harris in the VP debate

 Another post where no additional words are needed:

The bombshell you'll probably never hear about

 Just wow.  Words no longer do justice to the level of injustice that Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and their cabal of criminals committed on the people of America in 2016:


And many voters will not hear about this. Ever. Because of the media.

Friday Musical Interlude - Peace Frog

 The Doors, 1970.

October 7, 2020

A simplified election view and an explainer of why Trump is actually winning

 Based on the latest RealClearPolitics summary of polls, without looking at the partisan split and simply removing the partisan bias per FiveThirtyEight as well as the time-specific bias in polls by state that was evident in 2016 versus the actual results, I get some interesting results.

When I say time-specific bias, I think I owe an example. In Florida in 2016, in October, the RCP polls had Clinton at 48.2% and Trump at 42.4% support. The actual election had Trump garner 49% and Clinton at 47.8%.  So Clinton support was overstated in October in the polls by only 0.4%, but at the same time, president Trump got 6.6% more of the total vote than polls projected.  Combined, the pro-Clinton effect of Florida polls in October was the Clinton 'victory' margin was overstated by 7%.

It's true that the polls were not as far off in 2016 by the time November rolled around, but prior to that, they were either very wrong, deliberately very misleading or else something big changed in the last week to sway a massive shift in voter preference. I don't think the latter scenario was the case, even though Comey re-opened the Hillary Clinton email investigation in late October.  Why do I think that?  Because in a good number of the swing states the Hillary bias did not disappear in November polls.

What's more likely is that the polls were being used to push a narrative and that as election day closed in, they had to become more accurate or be viewed as untrustworthy in the future.  The bias often persisted right up to the election in 2016, but it was more muted than it was in November. 

Polls today have Biden outperforming Hillary's 2016 polls versus Donald Trump. Is that a concern?  Definitely - remember that Hillary Clinton had almost as high unfavorables in polls as  did Donald Trump.  Biden is, inexplicably, more likeable than Hillary Clinton to many.  That's why he's in hiding and not wanting to debate Trump again (ignore the lies that it is about Trump having COVID-19).

But it's possible the polls are biased towards Biden as much or more (or less) than they were  towards Hillary Clinton.  The bias is not easy to gauge.  Maybe by 2024 I'll be able to do that.  For now, I'm going to assume that the bias is the same for Biden as it was for Clinton.

With all that said - here's what my electoral college map looks like, removing the polling bias (or mistake):



Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

October 6, 2020

NBC 100% in the tank for Biden.

These two videos show you the lengths that NBC is willing to go to in order enable Joe Biden's bid for the presidency.

First the recent and clearly fake poll that has no basis in reality:


And then the "Town Hall" that was a softball -fest for Biden.

October 5, 2020

The latest look of the polls

Taking a look at the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the battleground states, president Trump currently has 218 electoral college votes.  Joe Biden currently has 199 electoral college votes and there are 121 electoral college votes that have not yet been decided.*
In the swing states the following results are observed:
-- Texas has a total of just 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 52.7% and Biden has 47.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 5.4%.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  I am assuming a Trump win. 
-- Florida has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 50.2% and Biden has 49.8% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 0.5%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Pennsylvania has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 50.2% and Biden has 49.8% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 0.5%.  Trump would get the electoral college votes.
-- Ohio has a total of 4 valid polls. Trump has 53.6% and Biden has 46.4% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 7.1%. Trump would get the electoral college votes.
-- Georgia has a total of 3 valid polls. Trump has 50.1% and Biden has 49.9% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 0.1%. Trump would get the electoral college votes.
-- Michigan has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 52.7% and Biden has 47.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 5.4%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- North Carolina has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 50.6% and Biden has 49.4% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 1.2%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Virginia has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 49.4% and Biden has 50.6% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 1.2%.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  I am assuming a Biden win.
-- Arizona has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Wisconsin has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 50.5% and Biden has 49.5% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 0.9%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Minnesota has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 48.8% and Biden has 51.2% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 2.4%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Colorado has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Nevada has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 43.8% and Biden has 56.2% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 12.3%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Iowa has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- New Mexico has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- New Hampshire has a total of 3 valid polls. Trump has 48.1% and Biden has 51.9% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 3.7%. Biden would get the electoral college votes.
-- Maine has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls. 

*Based on the following parameters; polls taken in the last 14 days, with a sample size of at least 500 among likely voters, with a margin of error of less than 4.1%, among pollsters rated C- or better, using the Pollster Tracking by FiveThirtyEight.com, and removing 538's allocated pollster bias and my calculated temporal pro-Clinton bias vs. actual election results from 2016. States must have at least 2 valid polls to be considered.

Given the above adjusted poll review, president Trump would need to win Florida (which he leads), Iowa (a reasonable assumption), Maine's 2nd district (a reasonable assumption), and 16 other electoral college votes to reach 270. Michigan alone could do that.  North Carolina could also almost do it, or Wisconsin plus Arizona could do it. Of those last three, it appears that Trump leads the first two.

Things do not look bad for the president at all.  His contraction of COVID-19 could have an interesting impact on the polling once polls come in post diagnosis.


Make corrections and retractions as big as the wrong story

This morning I was watching Tim Pool rant about the media (effectively, I might add) in the video below  and at 6:55 into the video he started talking about why the media sensationalizes the news, particularly fake news.  It's truth.  But it made me think that there's an easy way to make this stop:


What if every correction or retraction was required to be as forefront as the original story?  A headline in the Washington Post about Trump being severely ill that was incorrect, would require a headline correction and as much space in the story.  CNN leading the news hour with the same story for 2 minutes would require a 2 minute explanation of why they were wrong.

I know it's complex to enforce and there's a lot of loopholes, but at least notionally it's a good idea.  The New York Times does not want to cover the front page and all the editorial pages with retractions or corrections when it will kill their paper. A little forced accountability would be healthy for the news media industry.

Just a thought.

October 4, 2020

October 3, 2020

Saturday Learning Series - Geography (Nauru)

 If you thought like I did Nauru was a planet in Stark Trek, watch these videos.

 

October 2, 2020

Friday Musical Interlude - some Japanese Dreampop for you

2014's "Myrtle" by Tokyo band Oeil.

Trump got the COVID

 And it doesn't mean much, as long as he gets well. But that won't stop Democrats from harping on his "irresponsibility" in dealing with the disease.  But if the president gets well in a couple of weeks, he has a huge arrow in his quiver against Democrat hysterics about the disease.  We shall see.

Expect Biden to call for a cancellation of the debate in the coming days. Expect the president to resist. Perhaps even expect the president to turn up and debate an empty podium as Biden refuses to show up (you know they don't want him to debate Trump).  That said, an empty podium might help Biden. It won't mess up as much. 

October 1, 2020

Maybe I wasn't wrong about the debate.

 I said this, then Tim Pool said this, making me think possibly I was wrong.  Nope. Ben Shapiro sides with me on the net effect of the cluster**** of a debate:


I think the big loser in this is Chris Wallace.  He did a terrible job, by any measure, he was uneven in his treatment of the two men (to be kind about it) and he did not control the debate nor step out of the way.  He tried to control the debate and kept interrupting but never gained control.  So he did not accomplish an open debate forum and he did not  keep both men to stick to the rules. He was less than impartial, and somehow seemed to be a co-debater of Trump along with Joe Biden.

None of that matters in the Rorschach test of a debate.  People saw what they were expecting to see on both sides; their man won or nobody won.  Anyone not decided was not persuaded by this fiasco.  That said, Trump held his own, and Biden cleared the low expectations hurdle.  But that's not a win for either man.
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