October 31, 2020

In Defense of Western Culture

Western Culture is associated with whiteness and evil.  In fact whiteness itself is associated with evil by many on the far left, in an incredible stretching of believability. However, people are starting to stand up to the false narrative as seen both in this Tim Pool video that outlines the banning of Critical Race Theory in government, as well as the following article from Ammo.com

 Original Article from  below can be found here.

Elements of the left and their allies in the media are constantly driving this point home: White people are bad and so is the culture that they have created. Everything we value as a society is bad and, more than that, little more than an ex post facto justification for the subjugation of non-whites. Western culture is white culture, and all things white are bad.

But as with everything else which these elements of the left and their allies in the media push, this is simply false. While the overlap between white people – that is, people of European descent and some Christian populations in the Caucasus – and Western culture is undeniable, it is likewise undeniable that Western culture is no longer the exclusive domain of whites. What we can call, without the slightest bit of stretching the truth, Western culture is present not just in Western Europe, North America and Australia, but also in former British colonies such as Israel, Singapore and Hong Kong.

What’s more, a country simply being part of Europe does not make it “Western” in any meaningful sense. While there is a certain Western cultural continuum based around Christianity that extends from Lisbon to Vladivostok, it would be overly simplistic (and indeed, a bit demeaning) to label the post-Soviet countries as “Western.” They have a similar set of cultural values rooted in Christianity, however, even the introduction of democracy has not made many post-Soviet and post-colonial nations more liberal in the true sense of the word – open markets, an emphasis on free speech, strong private property rights, an independent, impartial judiciary, and the primacy of the individual over that of the group.

Throughout this article we will provide some terms to define what we mean by “Western culture.” We will also make the case that Western cultural values have a universal aspect in the sense that they can be applied with success anywhere in the world, that these values are objectively superior to other value sets at maximizing human freedomquality of life, and potential, and that the belief in this superiority has nothing to do with “racism” in the sense that it is commonly understood by ordinary people.

One demonstration of the proof that these values are objectively superior is that "people vote with their feet", as Dr. Jordan Peterson points out: "The fundamental assumptions of Western civilization are valid. Here's how you know: Which countries do people want to move away from? Not ours. Which countries do people want to move to? Ours! Guess what, they work better. And it's not because we went around the world stealing everything we could get our hands on. It's because we got certain fundamental assumptions right - and thank God for that."

Trump 279, Biden 245, Uncalled 14 (maybe).

I meant to get this update done yesterday, but it is now looking to me like Trump is in a good position for Tuesday based on deconstructed polls. The following is based on the Clinton 2016 bias reduced to 85% of that bias impact for Biden this cycle.  I think there will be a couple more updates between now and Tuesday but the momentum in the polls seems to be on Trump's side over the last week, a good sign.  The predictions below are based on some assumptions that are listed below wherein I am trying to be as objective as possible.  Personally I think the president could over-perform these results by quite a bit.  Conversely the pollsters could be more correct than they were in 2016, but I cannot find evidence that such is the case.


Taking a look at the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the battleground states, president Trump currently has 279 electoral college votes.  Joe Biden currently has 245 electoral college votes and there are 14 electoral college votes that have not yet been decided.*

*Based on the following parameters; polls taken in the last 13 days, with a sample size of at least 500 among likely voters, with a margin of error of less than 4.3%, among pollsters rated C/D or better, using the Pollster Tracking by FiveThirtyEight.com, and removing 538's allocated pollster bias as well as my calculated temporal pro-Clinton bias vs. actual election results from 2016. States must have at least 2 valid polls to be considered.

First the good news.

In Texas, Trump leads Biden 51.8% to 48.2%. This represents a difference of 3.6%. In a regular turnout election, this represents a vote difference of 230,728. In a high turnout election, this equates to a vote lead of 251,703. This is measured across 3 valid poll(s). Trump wins the electoral college votes for Texas because while it has tightened, it is not a swing state.

In Florida, Trump leads Biden 51.9% to 48.1%. This represents a difference of 3.8%. In a regular turnout election, this represents a vote difference of 198,592. In a high turnout election, this equates to a vote lead of 216,646. This is measured across 8 valid polls. Trump I think wins the electoral college votes for Florida by enough that there will be no recourse for Democrats to challenge it.

There are a couple of other states that the Trump victory should be similarly too large to contest: In Ohio, Trump leads Biden 53.4% to 46.6%. In Iowa, Trump leads Biden 52.4% to 47.6% (In a regular turnout election, this represents a vote difference of 43,976, too much for a small population state to be thrown into chaos recounts).  In Arizona, Trump leads Biden 51% to 49%. (in a regular turnout election, this represents a vote difference of 35,710, probably too much for Democrats to contest).

Similarly in Minnesota, Trump leads Biden 51.5% to 48.5%. enough of a difference to negate any sort of recount or missing ballots showing up in the trunk of a car. But there's a caveat to this one - it is measured across only 1 valid poll, which I am always hesitant to do. I would leave it as a toss-up for now, despite non-polling evidence momentum is in Trump's direction.

Then there are the states that are going to vote Trump but are worrisome due to the tightness of the race.

In Pennsylvania, there's a tight, tight race but Trump leads Biden 50.1% to 49.9%. This represents a difference of just 0.2%. In a regular turnout election, this represents a vote difference of 5,576. In a high turnout election, this equates to a vote lead of 6,083. This is measured across 6 valid polls. Trump should win the electoral college votes for Pennsylvania. But what is concerning is this is a tight enough race for Democrats to try to flip the result to Biden by voter fraud or through some type of court challenge followed by endless recounts a la their Florida 2000 efforts.

In North Carolina, Trump leads Biden 50.1% to 49.9%. This represents a difference of 0.1%.  In a regular turnout election, this represents a vote difference of 2,998.  In a high turnout election, this equates to a vote lead of 3,270.    This is measured across 7 valid polls.

In Georgia, Trump leads Biden 50.1% to 49.9%. This is only a difference of 0.2%.  In a regular turnout election, this represents a vote difference of 5,422.  In a high turnout election, this equates to a vote lead of 5,914. This is measured across 3 valid polls. That's definitely a recount scenario effort for Democrats.

Now the challenging parts.

There are a few states polls after factoring in bias still show Biden leading: In Michigan, Trump trails Biden 50.4% to 49.6% across 7 valid polls.  In Wisconsin, Trump trails Biden 51.2% to 48.8%,  measured across 4 valid polls. In Nevada, Trump trails Biden 52.3% to 47.7% across 2 valid polls.

Virginia appears to be a lock for Biden but I see only one poll that I would factor in, and I don't think the Biden lead will be as massive as the polls predict. And in New Hampshire, Trump trails Biden 52.2% to 47.8% but only across one poll that is worth mentioning. Should this be accurate, Trump cannot demand a recount, the lead is just too big.

In Colorado, New Mexico and Maine there are no polls that are worth factoring in but I suspect Biden will win all three.

All of this said, (1) there may be a few new polls posted today that need to be considered and (2) this is with a bias towards the Democrat at 85% of what we saw in 2016 for Hillary Clinton in October. That polling error/bias could be 0% this time around (giving Biden a massive win).  It could also be 150% of the previous bias (which means a Trump landslide. For example, if the bias is 100% of 2016, Michigan flips to Trump's column by 50,000 - 60,000 votes.

Saturday Learning Series - The Psychological Significance of the Biblical stories

Jordan Peterson talks about the importance of the Bible stories in this 17 part series.

Warning:  this is an intense intellectual lecture that requires your time and attention.  It's worth it though.

October 30, 2020

Mark Dice, still good and why Biden is in Iowa

 Mark Dice doesn't need my repost of his latest video, but he's got it anyway.


I do still expect an October surprise from Democrats but I think it's too little, too late to make a difference.  Election Day is Tuesday and I think the Democrats believe it's done.  

Why is Joe Biden in Iowa today?  He's not going to win Iowa. I think he's trying to help the Democrats' chances in the senate and trying to help upset Republican incumbent Joni Ernst.  If he felt like he was going to win the election, he would be in a more swingy, swing state.  Not Iowa.

Friday Musical Interlude - Fake Plastic Trees but it's an orchestra

 Epic Orchestra performs the Radiohead song Fake Plastic Trees, epically.

My predictions have been wrong all along (slightly)

Two days ago I pointed out that if the polls in 2020 had 85% of the same October bias as did the polls in October 2016, Trump was leading Biden at 247 to 243 electoral college votes with 48 electoral college undecided. Today, with the same bias level,  and giving Virginia, New Mexico and all of Maine to Biden, Trump is leading Biden 264 to 260 with only New Hampshire and Minnesota remaining undecided.  

If Trump  gets Maine District 2 and wins New Hampshire, he actually gets to 269 - the dreaded tie scenario if Biden were to win Minnesota.  However I took a closer look at North Carolina which I was seeing as perilously close.  If Trump were to win that he would actually have enough electoral college votes to win the election even without New Hampshire and Main District 2.

It got me thinking - I'm applying both my own view of the 2016 bias as well as the 538 pollster bias. I could be double counting the bias.  But thanks to a video (I cannot relocate the exact one) from Red Eagle Politics (a great YouTube channel worth checking out), I decided to take a closer look at the 538 pollster bias ratings. As was pointed out on the video I saw, the pollster ratings provided by 538 are kind of suspect. The New York Times/Siena polls are rated as a +0.7% bias towards - Republicans??? 

Looking Just at North Carolina polls in October 2016, they had Clinton +2 (late September) and Clinton +8 (late October).  In their poll of the last three days before the election they rated it a 44-44 tie, with a margin of error +/-3.5% (their CYA poll).  In North Carolina in 2016 Trump won 49.8 to 46.2.  That represents a victory of 3.6%, actually just outside their margin of error. And in fact, they underrepresented the Trump support by 5.8% and Clinton by 2.2%.  Clearly (1) they got it wrong by even their own Margin of Error on 1 of the 2 data points as well as the overall result, and (2) how the hell are they rated Republican +0.7%? What is that rating based on? Perhaps congressional polling results? It doesn't matter, their bias factor clearly cannot be  attributable to upcoming election at a presidential level. That's just one example, and I found others.

The takeaway - The 538 pollster bias is sketchy at best, and I am backing it out of my calculations.

Stay tuned for a revised update of my polling-adjusted view of the electoral college situation later today. That's not to say all of the 538 data is bunk.  The do provide a pollster grade rating that is, for the most part, reasonable - especially when it comes to lesser known pollsters.  I will still be filtering out those pollsters that they have rated below a C+.  That may be a generous inclusion of me when it comes to certain pollsters, but I do still have other means of filtering out garbage polls (old polls, Margin of error issues, sample sizes to small for example) and those will remain intact. 

I expect my look later today will be more accurate than what I have been showing and I expect it to break slightly more in Trump's favor.

October 29, 2020

The economy had a pretty good third quarter

 Via Breitbart:

The U.S. economy grew at the fastest pace ever recorded in the third quarter, expanding at an annualized pace of 33.1 percent, the U.S. Commerce Department said Thursday. 

The economic rebound means the U.S. recovered significant ground following the record-breaking collapse of output due to lockdowns intended to stem the spread of the coronavirus. Despite the third-quarter gains, the economy is still 3.5 percent smaller than it was as the year began. 

Economists had expected the economy to grow 30.9 percent, according to Econoday. Some economists, however, had been expecting a bigger expansion following the release this week of positive data in recent news on durable good data and international trade. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow had third-quarter growth at 37 percent. 

The third-quarter GDP gain was fueled by a record 40.7 percent increase in consumer spending. Business investment surged 20.3 percent during the quarter, reflecting a 70.1 percent jump in investment in equipment. The housing market is booming: residential investment grew at a rate of 59.3 percent.

That's the largest growth quarter in history.  Following the worst quarter in history, the best.  CNN will spin this as 'people are still hurting but this proves that the president gets economics. Under Biden and a shutdown this would be another quarter of contraction with a negative GDP in Q3.

October 28, 2020

Predicting the presidential race comes down to belief

The 2020 election comes down belief. I'm not taking just who believes in their candidate.  I'm talking about predicting who is going to win depends on what and who you believe.  The pols seem wonky and over-dramatically pro-Biden. But that's what I believe. I believe that man cannot generate enthusiasm.  Then again, you might believe there's a rabid anti-Trump enthusiasm that overshadows Biden himself.

Maybe there's a revenge factor for Democrats who really, really wanted Hillary Clinton to  win.  Conversely Trump supporters have a reason for revenge of their own - 4 years of phony impeachment to oust a duly elected president.

Now election  prediction - that's a different sort of beliefs, going back to what you believe about the polls.  In 2016 they were wrong. Badly wrong.  Oh, granted in the final days they got close. But that was right at the end.  I pointed this out yesterday.  The real question is: "Is the same thing happening again in 2020"? It's hard to believe that the Democrats chose a candidate that is even more lackluster than Hillary Clinton was, but they actually did it. So yes, I believe that the polling is again in 2020 either erroneous or deliberately misleading.  How much so?

That's the real question. I'm seeing some truly dramatic election impacts if the reasonable and recent polls (margin of error less than 4.3%, done in the last 13 days and by reasonably reputable pollster) are scaled to the same level of bias (or less) compared to how off they were in 2016.

For example, if the polls are only 80% as biased towards Biden as the were to Hillary. Biden has almost won.  In this scenario he probably gets all of the states that cannot be called based on polling, except maybe Iowa and ends up 305 electoral college votes - a solid win.  However, in order to ensure that he wins the level of bias would have to drop all the way to 45% where Biden would also capture Florida.


But if the bias is 85% of the Clinton bias, Trump is actually leading right now.  And interestingly, Pennsylvania is the first state to flip from Biden to Trump's column.


At 90% of the Clinton bias in polls applied to 2020, North Carolina flips from Biden to Trump as well, but he still has not won.


At a bias level in late October 2020 matching that of October 2016, Michigan flips and Trump wins.


If there is zero bias in the polls Biden has 308 electoral votes and likely garners most of the 48 undecided states. His potential ceiling is 356 electoral college votes.  That shows this is definitely a matter of belief.  After all the bias could be even worse this time around. Biden is less energizing than Hillary Clinton was, right?  If the bias is 125% of what Hillary got in October 2016, Trump get 288 electoral votes comfortably and at possibly 28 of the undecided 48 undecided states (where the polling is just not sufficient to make a plausible call), for a total of 316 electoral college votes.

What do you believe? The polls are right, or close, or wrong?  That's what leads to an inability to make a reasonable prediction right now and we are less than a week away.

For the record, I see no evidence that the pollsters recognized and adjusted their methodologies from 2016. As a result, I believe Trump is going to win (minus any cheating). I just don't know how soundly he is going to win. My hope is that it's enough to overcome any potential "insurance policies" on the part of the left.

This says it best

October 27, 2020

Voter interference in Texas

This woman, working for a Republican, is trying to switch voters' votes to Democrats.  That's messed up.

Project Veritas reveals the corruption once again:

***How the polls understated Trump in 2016, and what it means for 2020***

Looking back at the 2016 Trump vs. Clinton election, There was some interesting shy Trump voter effect.  I'm not worried about the actual results in 2020 if this time the polling misses the same voters it did in 2016. Trump's support was often understated.* Below are some of the key states showing how the polls got it wrong leading up to the 2016 election by month.  Interestingly, the polls in 2016 often understated* Clinton support, albeit typically by a smaller percentage.  That all could be from the impact of third party votes switching late, or cheating.  But the polls having Biden +15 are likely experiencing the same mistakes they did last time.

*Note, where the number is negative, it indicates the polls have overstated the candidate's support in that month. Where both candidates' numbers equal exactly zero, it indicates there was no polling in that time frame.

In Florida: Trump highly over-performed his polling right into November. Hillary Clinton in October polls was actually doing worse than her polling, though by November the polls were back to understating her actual results.


In Georgia: Polling generally improved month over month for both candidates, but Trump was hurt more by being understated throughout the late polling cycle.


In Iowa: The polls massively underestimated Trump but were fairly close on Clinton.


In Michigan: The story is similar to Iowa, in October short-selling his support by almost 8% while overselling Hillary's by 1%!



In Minnesota: In October the total error of support for Clinton and Trump was 8%!


In North Carolina: The polls were off by a combined support error of 4.6% in October and even more in November.


In New Hampshire: There was an interesting reversal of error in November but in October the effect was a +8 shift towards Hillary.


In Ohio: Trump was again slighted. You get the idea and pattern forming among all the states here, right?


In Pennsylvania: Much the same as other states, the Trump shy voters are not getting picked up just like elsewhere.  Unless, just like elsewhere, the differential that largely evaporates in November was fictitious to begin with.  Did the pollsters suddenly figure out how to spot shy Trump voters in November 2016? Or did they not want to be labelled as untrustworthy, and had to start reflecting the truth? The former is more likely true because there are pollsters who largely got it right in 2016 (Trafalgar) that are showing a tighter race than other pollsters who are still showing large Biden leads today. Remember, these graphs are the pollsters in the aggregate by month, not differentiating between correct and incorrect pollsters. A lot (if not most) of the same players are showing the same type of results this time around - both the Trafalgars and the Ipsoses of the polling universe.


In Texas: Here's one they hurt Hillary, dramatically (as well as Trump).  But most notably in every month but October.  October is THE month this time around, since there are only 2 days worth of potential polling in November, and more realistically, just 1 day.


In Virginia: The bias probably doesn't matter because Biden is obscenely ahead in the state.  However, it raises the question - are the polls (either deliberately or through error) overstating the Biden lead even more strongly that they did for Hillary Clinton?  Or is Biden actually really that far ahead?  If he is, the contest is over. But if not, what is the ratio of Hillary oversampled voters in 2016 to Biden oversampled voters in 2020?  I have in all of my assessments so far assumed it's 1-1.  Interestingly in my analyses so far, if the Biden bias is only 85% of Clinton's, he still wins the election. At 90% it's not decided yet and at 95% or more, Trump wins.


Finally in Wisconsin: The error was clear.  In November they finally got Clinton support right, but there was still a massive undercounting of Trump support.


So what's it all mean? It means GO VOTE. For Trump.  Nothing matters - not the polls, not the early voting split, nothing matters except the final tally.  I have statistical knowledge and I'm saying the polls don't matter as much as you are being told.  If all the polls were done properly, they might.  But there's a lot of bias at work, both political and technical.  We won't understand it until after the election, and then and only then, is there a chance for pollsters to start correcting their mistakes of 2016 and 2020 (if the latter are still suffering from the same  issues as the former). But that's not the election.  The election is you turning out and making a difference.

Waiting in a line is not voter suppression

 Unless, unless, you are AOC.

October 26, 2020

Joe Biden will outperform...George?

Based on all his missteps during this campaign, I think Biden thinks he is running for the senate, against George Bush and asking for all of the votes of people left over after the 150 million Americans killed by guns and the 200 million killed by COVID

October 25, 2020

The race is closer than they say

 According to Jim Lee, a pollster with Susquehanna Polling and Research.

Sunday verse

 


October 23, 2020

Did Biden end his own chances to win last night?

A lot of commentators have pointed out that Biden's stance on ending oil might cost him Pennsylvania.  Here's one example from Tim Pool:

October 22, 2020

Meanwhile in Canada

The ultra-liberal Trudeau government is acting above the law, involved in yet another scandal, and almost got forced into an election just ne year after their previous narrow electoral win.  Unfortunately the even more liberal (in fact outright socialist) NDP party voted to keep the government intact.

October 20, 2020

More misleading evidence of Biden's electoral prowess

There's a poll out today in Michigan from MIRS/Mitchell Research that shows an uptick in Joe Biden's lead:


Biden +10?  Is it time to panic maybe?

Nope.  Back in 2016 the same pollster in the same window polled the following:


How did the state voting turn out? President Trump got 47.5% of the vote and Hillary Clinton got 47.3%. In other words they overstated Clinton's vote by 5.5% and understated president Trump's vote by 6.5%.  They were off by 12% total. And they had Clinton +12. If the same is the case in 2020, then we would expect to see the poll corrected to  Biden at 45.5% and Trump at 47.5%. That's a Trump win and improvement for Trump overall vs. his 2016 showing. 

When I look at valid polls in Michigan, and account for this bias (assuming it has not been corrected since 2016) I see Trump as high as +4.4% over three different valid polls.  While I do not believe it will be that high of a lead, I see him winning Michigan.

A few graphs that show a lot

 Back in 2016 the polls in the swing states tightened a lot in the swing states in the last couple of weeks.  The pollsters were predicting a Hillary rout of now president Trump.  But as election day neared they had to become more realistic or the pollsters risked their credibility.

Look what's happening in a few key swing states according the the RealClearPolitics averages (which are problematic in their own right) this time around and draw your own conclusions:

 





Sad news - Rush Limbaugh cancer has worsened

Yesterday I posted the good news that Jordan Peterson was on the mend and back making videos. Unfortunately we also got some less encouraging news from the one and only Rush Limbaugh. I pray he can still recover.

Rush Limbaugh's stage 4 lung cancer has progressed "in the wrong direction," the conservative commentator and radio host announced. 

More than eight months after revealing his diagnosis, Limbaugh, 69, said Monday on his radio show that his new health developments weren't "dramatic," but had nevertheless recently worsened.

"The idea now is to keep it where it is or maybe have it reduce again," he said, according to a transcript on his website. "We’ve shown that that is possible. If it happened once, it can happen again. So that’s the objective of the current treatment plan."

Limbaugh announced in early February that he had been diagnosed with "advanced lung cancer," confirmed by "two medical institutions back on Jan. 20." Speaking Monday, he said at the time, he did not believe he'd live past September.

October 19, 2020

Jordan Peterson returns

Jordan Peterson coming back from ill health is a wonderful thing, for him, for conservatives, and for humanity.

Something to see here folks

Nothing Something to see here folks:


The Bidens are like an organized crime family in an extortion racket that also owns mainstream media.

Addendum: The reaction?  Biden panics and goes into hiding.

October 18, 2020

EXCLUSIVE: Joe Biden's son emailed shop owner about hard drive to 'get it back'

 Via Sky News Australia:

This week in censorship

 Mark Dice shares the frustration.

This is what being woke should look like

 This woman is really thinking about what's going on. This is such a well done video.

The psychology of crowd momentum

This is fascinating from a psychological or sociological perspective. And it has deep implications for politics. One guy dancing weird is, well, weird.  But when a second guy joins it becomes a little less weird and after the third guy joins it becomes a flood.  It's now okay to join in. And at some point, maybe it becomes unacceptable to leave.


A better view of the crowd joining:

Sunday verse

 


October 17, 2020

Hunter Biden -Joe Biden corruption scandal is slow-rolling away his chances of winning

This may not kill Joe Biden's chances of winning the White House, but it should.  Then again a lot of there things should have done so already.

Saturday Learning Series - Geography (Netherlands)

 Netherlands:


October 16, 2020

One of the best videos of 2020

 This guy's enthusiasm is infectious.  His positivity is off the charts. And his logic is highly persuasive.  As someone mentioned in the comments, president Trump should get this guy on his staff. He's that good.


Share this with your unconvinced friends. Please.

Friday Musical Interlude - one for the Democrat voters

 STRFKR's Open Your Eyes from 2016:

October 15, 2020

Twitter and Facebook are acting in an evil manner right now

 Evil Big Tech:

More election malfeasance at Twitter

 This would be on the verge of being criminal if subverting your own moral imperative were a crime.

Another view on the reasons the polls don't make sense

Biden won't win.  Here's another view of why, Biden is not a juggernaut but they would have you believe that.

October 14, 2020

Obama hack Bruce Ohr out at DOJ

This comes a few years too late, but still good news: 

Facebook in high gear to protect Biden

Communications @Facebook Andy Stone on Twitter is hiding the bombshell from the NY Post about Hunter Biden and Joe Biden.

This is pure damage control.  In case you are not familiar with the breaking story:

Latest election round-up

Click to enlarge.
There have been a few new polls since my last update. Taking a look at the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the battleground states, president Trump currently has 250 electoral college votes while  Joe Biden currently has 237 electoral college votes and there are still 51 electoral college votes that have not yet been decided.*  

In the swing states the following results are observed:

-- Texas has a total of only 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up as a result. But Trump has 54.5% and Biden has 45.5% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 9.1%.    No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to the included polls.  But I'm assuming a Trump win.  The projected vote differential would be 579,250 in a regular turnout or 605,580 in a high turnout election.  

-- Florida has a total of 6 valid polls. Trump has 51.5% and Biden has 48.5% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 2.9%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 150,825 in a regular turnout or 157,681 in a high turnout election. 

-- Pennsylvania has a total of 4 valid polls. Trump has 50% and Biden has 50% of the weighted valid vote total. But Joe Biden leads by 0.1%.   Biden would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be a miniscule 2,748 in a regular turnout or 2,873 in a high turnout election. This state could be the difference in the election. 

-- Ohio has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 54.8% and Biden has 45.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 9.5%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 316,739 in a regular turnout or 331,136 in a high turnout election. 

-- Georgia has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 51.3% and Biden has 48.7% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 2.7%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 71,859 in a regular turnout or 75,125 in a high turnout election. 

-- Michigan has a total of 3 valid polls. Trump has 50.7% and Biden has 49.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 1.4%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 41,919 in a regular turnout or 43,824 in a high turnout election. 

-- North Carolina has a total of 3 valid polls. Trump has 49.3% and Biden has 50.7% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 1.5%.    Biden would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 42,295 in a regular turnout or 44,217 in a high turnout election. 

-- Virginia has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  I'm assuming a Biden win in the state. 

-- Arizona has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 52.2% and Biden has 47.8% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 4.4%.    No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  The projected vote differential would be 78,940 in a regular turnout or 82,528 in a high turnout election. 

-- Wisconsin has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 47.7% and Biden has 52.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 4.7%.    No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  The projected vote differential would be 80,595 in a regular turnout or 84,258 in a high turnout election. 

-- Minnesota has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls. 

-- Colorado has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls. 

-- Nevada has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls. 

-- Iowa has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 52.3% and Biden has 47.7% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 4.7%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 42,558 in a regular turnout or 44,492 in a high turnout election. 

-- New Mexico has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 42.6% and Biden has 57.4% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 14.8%.    No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  The projected vote differential would be 74,797 in a regular turnout or 78,197 in a high turnout election. 

-- New Hampshire has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 48.3% and Biden has 51.7% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 3.5%.    Biden would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 13,821 in a regular turnout or 14,450 in a high turnout election. 

-- Maine has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  Assuming a Trump win.  

*Based on the following parameters; polls taken in the last 17 days, with a sample size of at least 500 among likely voters, with a margin of error of less than 4.1%, among pollsters rated C- or better, using the Pollster Tracking by FiveThirtyEight.com, and removing 538's allocated pollster bias as well as my calculated temporal pro-Clinton bias vs. actual election results from 2016. States must have at least 2 valid polls to be considered.

I believe that president Trump will win Arizona bring his electoral college total to 261. He could also win North Carolina, New Hampshire, Minnesota and possibly Pennsylvania and Nevada. That gives him a lot of paths to victory. But in any of those states as well as Michigan I expect Democrats to mount legal proceedings to try to discount any of the president's victories.

That means this comes down to a legal battle, and the president will have to win more than 270-something or else it could be stolen.  But it's still possible that he gets as high as 326 electoral college votes if the election were held today.

This is gonna be another great Trump economic recovery

2021 is going to be an awesome economic year for the United States. The recovery to date under president Trump has been lightning fast and 2021 will be even better.


October 13, 2020

Amy Coney Barrett has a brilliant mind.

 The Supreme Court will be enhanced with her on board.

October 12, 2020

Electoral college and election night projection update

I've added a vote total component to my projection analysis and I've seen some interesting things to be a bit worried about. Remember, this is just a poll-driven analysis.  I'm only trying to account for poll errors and poll validity. With the addition of vote totals, I am looking at allocating the weighted average polling results for what I consider valid polls, on a  state by state basis.  It does not take into consideration registration changes, only Pew Research's state by state Republican/Democrat/Independent voter registration percentages (I have not paid for actual registration data because I am not rich).  These results are poll-viewed results, where I am unable to make a call in a state is it because there has not been enough valid polling being done in that state so far.  I expect a lot more polling to be done in the next three weeks and the valid data should be much more plentiful.

First the electoral college totals - I've refined my analysis to include only polls from the last 14 days, with 500 or more likely voters for sample sizes and a margin of error of 4% or less.  Including only those qualifying state polls, I have president Trump at 244 electoral college votes, Biden at 237 with 57  votes from states that are undetermined as of this moment - those being Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Texas I am assuming for Trump despite the lack of pollster information because even though there are many unknown pollsters, they are pretty much all clearly tipped towards the president.

Interestingly, after accounting for likely polling bias, I am seeing Michigan and Florida going for Trump but North Carolina going for Biden.  

There are also some interesting vote differential projections in both the regular and high turnout models. I am seeing a mere 10,000 vote win for president Trump in Florida. That's CLOSE. It's also something Democrats could paper over with mail in ballot malfeasance.

Pennsylvania I am seeing in Biden's column by 55,000 votes.  Georgia is in the president's column but by a mere 24,000 votes. Michigan he wins by only 11,000. Biden wins North Carolina by only 15,000 votes.  Despite only one valid poll, it would appear Trump will win the state by 80,000 votes.

The president's lead in Wisconsin would be smaller than 2016, winning the state by just 25,000 votes. According to the polls Biden would win New Hampshire by 16,000 votes but it's also possible that the vote differential could be less than 1000 votes.

The next three weeks are going to be very interesting.

COVID-19 and school choice


Every crisis is an opportunity. Democrats manage their crises that way. Conservatives and Republicans do not.  We have not taken advantage of COVID the way Democrats would have done were we enduring a Hillary Clinton administration.

Conservatives believe in border security and school choice. Conservatives have seen first hand the dangers of a tech monopolies. COVID was an opportunity to move the ball, in a massive way forward towards these  conservative principles and probably others too.

We didn't do it.  We never do and that's why we are always playing defense against a progressive onslaught.

For example the lockdowns and later teachers not wanting to be back in school was VERY FERTILE ground to move towards alternative education options and ultimately the viability of school choice as an option. It could have been part of any of the runs at a stimulus this year.

Conservatism is often equal to trying to keep America great by stopping change.  But liberty and other conservative principles were meant to be spread, not just protected and slowly eroded. 


October 11, 2020

October 10, 2020

October 9, 2020

Pence destroyed Harris in the VP debate

 Another post where no additional words are needed:

The bombshell you'll probably never hear about

 Just wow.  Words no longer do justice to the level of injustice that Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and their cabal of criminals committed on the people of America in 2016:


And many voters will not hear about this. Ever. Because of the media.

Friday Musical Interlude - Peace Frog

 The Doors, 1970.

October 7, 2020

A simplified election view and an explainer of why Trump is actually winning

 Based on the latest RealClearPolitics summary of polls, without looking at the partisan split and simply removing the partisan bias per FiveThirtyEight as well as the time-specific bias in polls by state that was evident in 2016 versus the actual results, I get some interesting results.

When I say time-specific bias, I think I owe an example. In Florida in 2016, in October, the RCP polls had Clinton at 48.2% and Trump at 42.4% support. The actual election had Trump garner 49% and Clinton at 47.8%.  So Clinton support was overstated in October in the polls by only 0.4%, but at the same time, president Trump got 6.6% more of the total vote than polls projected.  Combined, the pro-Clinton effect of Florida polls in October was the Clinton 'victory' margin was overstated by 7%.

It's true that the polls were not as far off in 2016 by the time November rolled around, but prior to that, they were either very wrong, deliberately very misleading or else something big changed in the last week to sway a massive shift in voter preference. I don't think the latter scenario was the case, even though Comey re-opened the Hillary Clinton email investigation in late October.  Why do I think that?  Because in a good number of the swing states the Hillary bias did not disappear in November polls.

What's more likely is that the polls were being used to push a narrative and that as election day closed in, they had to become more accurate or be viewed as untrustworthy in the future.  The bias often persisted right up to the election in 2016, but it was more muted than it was in November. 

Polls today have Biden outperforming Hillary's 2016 polls versus Donald Trump. Is that a concern?  Definitely - remember that Hillary Clinton had almost as high unfavorables in polls as  did Donald Trump.  Biden is, inexplicably, more likeable than Hillary Clinton to many.  That's why he's in hiding and not wanting to debate Trump again (ignore the lies that it is about Trump having COVID-19).

But it's possible the polls are biased towards Biden as much or more (or less) than they were  towards Hillary Clinton.  The bias is not easy to gauge.  Maybe by 2024 I'll be able to do that.  For now, I'm going to assume that the bias is the same for Biden as it was for Clinton.

With all that said - here's what my electoral college map looks like, removing the polling bias (or mistake):



Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

October 6, 2020

NBC 100% in the tank for Biden.

These two videos show you the lengths that NBC is willing to go to in order enable Joe Biden's bid for the presidency.

First the recent and clearly fake poll that has no basis in reality:


And then the "Town Hall" that was a softball -fest for Biden.

October 5, 2020

The latest look of the polls

Taking a look at the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the battleground states, president Trump currently has 218 electoral college votes.  Joe Biden currently has 199 electoral college votes and there are 121 electoral college votes that have not yet been decided.*
In the swing states the following results are observed:
-- Texas has a total of just 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 52.7% and Biden has 47.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 5.4%.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  I am assuming a Trump win. 
-- Florida has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 50.2% and Biden has 49.8% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 0.5%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Pennsylvania has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 50.2% and Biden has 49.8% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 0.5%.  Trump would get the electoral college votes.
-- Ohio has a total of 4 valid polls. Trump has 53.6% and Biden has 46.4% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 7.1%. Trump would get the electoral college votes.
-- Georgia has a total of 3 valid polls. Trump has 50.1% and Biden has 49.9% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 0.1%. Trump would get the electoral college votes.
-- Michigan has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 52.7% and Biden has 47.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 5.4%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- North Carolina has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 50.6% and Biden has 49.4% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 1.2%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Virginia has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 49.4% and Biden has 50.6% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 1.2%.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  I am assuming a Biden win.
-- Arizona has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Wisconsin has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 50.5% and Biden has 49.5% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 0.9%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Minnesota has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 48.8% and Biden has 51.2% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 2.4%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Colorado has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Nevada has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 43.8% and Biden has 56.2% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 12.3%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Iowa has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- New Mexico has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- New Hampshire has a total of 3 valid polls. Trump has 48.1% and Biden has 51.9% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 3.7%. Biden would get the electoral college votes.
-- Maine has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls. 

*Based on the following parameters; polls taken in the last 14 days, with a sample size of at least 500 among likely voters, with a margin of error of less than 4.1%, among pollsters rated C- or better, using the Pollster Tracking by FiveThirtyEight.com, and removing 538's allocated pollster bias and my calculated temporal pro-Clinton bias vs. actual election results from 2016. States must have at least 2 valid polls to be considered.

Given the above adjusted poll review, president Trump would need to win Florida (which he leads), Iowa (a reasonable assumption), Maine's 2nd district (a reasonable assumption), and 16 other electoral college votes to reach 270. Michigan alone could do that.  North Carolina could also almost do it, or Wisconsin plus Arizona could do it. Of those last three, it appears that Trump leads the first two.

Things do not look bad for the president at all.  His contraction of COVID-19 could have an interesting impact on the polling once polls come in post diagnosis.


Make corrections and retractions as big as the wrong story

This morning I was watching Tim Pool rant about the media (effectively, I might add) in the video below  and at 6:55 into the video he started talking about why the media sensationalizes the news, particularly fake news.  It's truth.  But it made me think that there's an easy way to make this stop:


What if every correction or retraction was required to be as forefront as the original story?  A headline in the Washington Post about Trump being severely ill that was incorrect, would require a headline correction and as much space in the story.  CNN leading the news hour with the same story for 2 minutes would require a 2 minute explanation of why they were wrong.

I know it's complex to enforce and there's a lot of loopholes, but at least notionally it's a good idea.  The New York Times does not want to cover the front page and all the editorial pages with retractions or corrections when it will kill their paper. A little forced accountability would be healthy for the news media industry.

Just a thought.

October 4, 2020

October 3, 2020

Saturday Learning Series - Geography (Nauru)

 If you thought like I did Nauru was a planet in Stark Trek, watch these videos.

 

October 2, 2020

Friday Musical Interlude - some Japanese Dreampop for you

2014's "Myrtle" by Tokyo band Oeil.

Trump got the COVID

 And it doesn't mean much, as long as he gets well. But that won't stop Democrats from harping on his "irresponsibility" in dealing with the disease.  But if the president gets well in a couple of weeks, he has a huge arrow in his quiver against Democrat hysterics about the disease.  We shall see.

Expect Biden to call for a cancellation of the debate in the coming days. Expect the president to resist. Perhaps even expect the president to turn up and debate an empty podium as Biden refuses to show up (you know they don't want him to debate Trump).  That said, an empty podium might help Biden. It won't mess up as much. 

October 1, 2020

Maybe I wasn't wrong about the debate.

 I said this, then Tim Pool said this, making me think possibly I was wrong.  Nope. Ben Shapiro sides with me on the net effect of the cluster**** of a debate:


I think the big loser in this is Chris Wallace.  He did a terrible job, by any measure, he was uneven in his treatment of the two men (to be kind about it) and he did not control the debate nor step out of the way.  He tried to control the debate and kept interrupting but never gained control.  So he did not accomplish an open debate forum and he did not  keep both men to stick to the rules. He was less than impartial, and somehow seemed to be a co-debater of Trump along with Joe Biden.

None of that matters in the Rorschach test of a debate.  People saw what they were expecting to see on both sides; their man won or nobody won.  Anyone not decided was not persuaded by this fiasco.  That said, Trump held his own, and Biden cleared the low expectations hurdle.  But that's not a win for either man.
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