State of the race

Here's my latest take on the race, based on polls of likely voters within the past 14 days, with at least a 500 sample size. The only state with no valid polls based on my criteria, is Georgia.

Interestingly, outside of one poll in North Carolina, there are only two pollsters with polling that qualifies, and both tend to favor Republicans in their methodology.  Is it possible there's a bias in my selection? Yes, seeing as how the included polls are clearly right-leaning.  But the problem with that conclusion is that they are the most recent polls, they do have a reasonable sample size, and they are polling likely voters, which is more informative than registered voters or just all adults.

Without getting into the crosstabs of voters and whether the sample compositions are indicative of the electorate, it's a better quick and dirty than how RealClearPolitics just does a recency and non-duplicate pollster check. I trust my averages more than that of RCP. 

Further, check out The Peoples' Pundit on Benny Johnson, who explains some more details on why Trump is very likely winning right now.