August 28, 2015

What if Trump Wins? Then What?

It's Friday and I'm in a less serious mood so I'm going to play a little bit of a speculation game.  Let's start with the premise. Suppose Donald Trump, in a public fit of "throw the bums out", wins the presidency as an outsider.  If that sentiment is what drives this election cycle, you might even see Carly Fiorina or Ben Carson as is his running mate.  So now he's won.  He wants to get serious with a border fence with Mexico.  He wants to start calling China on illegal and unfair trade practices.  He wants to gut and simplify the 75,000+ page Tax Code and streamline the IRS.  And he's going to have to probably appoint a Supreme Court Justice or two during his tenure.

Now what?

Assuming the GOP hold Congress and the Senate, will the likes of Boehner and McConnell work with Trump to achieve these things?  Some of Trump's agenda items might be easy sells to the GOP establishment, others might be impossible.  

What will his foreign policy look like?  He's full of bluster now, but there is some danger to operating that way on a day to day basis.

And what happens when it comes to social policy?  Does he ignore issues like abortion?  What kind of Supreme Court justices will he nominate?  That's a particularly important question that has yet to be answered. Have Trump's own positions actually changed as he claims, or is he just saying what he needs to say to get elected?

Who might he surround himself with as Department Secretaries and advisors? Will it consist of yes-men/women, or will he appoint knowledgeable people to help him make informed decisions?  If he appoints lackeys then there's a danger of a lot of bad decision-making due to a lack of understanding of circumstances. On the other hand, if he appoints experts, it dilutes his image as a reformer bringing in a fresh set of ideas, and cleaning up the existing mess.

It could be an amazing presidency, it could be a disaster of a presidency. One thing is certain, it'll be an interesting one.  What's even more interesting is the growing number of Americans on both sides of the aisle seemingly frustrated enough to be willing to roll the dice on Trump.
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