October 28, 2014

Virginia: Gillespie's outside chance moving inside

Via Fox News:
Republican Ed Gillespie is making a tight race out of his ambitious plan to defeat Virginia Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, slicing deep into the incumbent’s lead in the final days to re-emerge as a player in the GOP set piece to take the Senate.

By some accounts, Gillespie, a former Bush White House staffer and Republican National Committee chairman, has already done his job by forcing Democrats and their supporters to keep spending money on an expected victory, instead of on the handful of other Senate races that they desperately need to retain control of the upper chamber.

But with 10 days to go before Election Day, Gillespie, who according to a recent poll has cut the lead to single digits, feels confident about winning and is in no mood to declare a moral victory for what Washington war room strategists refer to as “expanding the playing field.”
The big 'aha' moment for those of us outside of Virginia comes late in the Fox story - popular incumbent Democrat Warner is struggling in light of a recent revelation that's been a big deal in Virginia.
...the race could now be even tighter, following revelations in mid-October about Warner allegedly discussing a federal judgeship for a supporter in an effort to keep her father from quitting the state Senate and giving Republicans the majority.

Bell said the allegation, largely overlooked by the national media, is a big deal among Virginia voters, though no public polls have been released since it surfaced.

“It’s a big issue,” Gillespie said. “It’s deeply troubling that Mark Warner would play politics with an appointment to a federal bench. Something happened to Mark Warner on his way to Capitol Hill.”
Is that enough to actually put Virginia in play? Perhaps it is. Perhaps this race could now be inside of 5%. Maybe even 3% (i.e. the typical polling margin of error). Let's hope it's a big upset on election day.
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