July 12, 2020

COVID19 Deaths vs. New Cases in America

The number of COVID-19 related deaths in the United States is clearly declining, even as the number of cases rises. This of course explains the media's new obsession with the number of cases as it paints a worse picture for the president.

The two charts below show the decline in deaths and the rise in cases in a time series.

This is not to say that deaths might not surge once again, but there are a lot of factors in play here besides reopening states for business: seasonality, the increasing number of tests being conducted, people's behaviors, co-morbidity and how the cases are being counted, the demographics of the newly infected, BLM protesters not being admonished for not social distancing, and a number of other things.

To draw any conclusions about the path of the disease over the next few months is no better than speculation.  It is incumbent on the media to report both the above trends rather than sensationalizing the news cycle or using it for political purposes. 

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