July 22, 2020

George Friedman predicts the rest of the 21st century

The American age.

One possibility that Friedman does not consider is artificial birth.  Birth rates may indeed naturally decline over time and the need to expand populations could create as a result, a desire to increase immigration. But if women are not required to endure labor to have a child then perhaps family sizes could begin to rise again.  There are other dependencies that impact that one factor - for example religion, or the ability to have designer children, or the extension of lifespan that would change the dynamic or timelines of child rearing age. 

The point is there is a logic to Friedman's projections but in order to get the geopolitics right, it's important to get other components like technology right.  Most of us will be around longer than septuagenarian George Friedman.  He posited these things in 2015.  We may be around long enough to see if he's right.  I would hazard a guess that if he gets the other parts right, the geopolitics he predicts are highly probable.  But it's those other parts that are the really really tricky bit.

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