July 3, 2024

Best outcome for GOP/Trump?

Many Democrats want Let's Go Brandon to step aside for the sake of the party. Many Republicans do too, for the sake of the country. What's actually better for the country and for the Republicans?

What's best for the country is not in question - a guy who is supposedly alert between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. is not best for the country. For that reason he should definitely step aside.  

It's arguable either way whether it's better for Democrats to stick with him or to replace him.  But what's best for Republicans? To do what they can to foster/enable the Democratic Party discord for as long as possible? To call for Let's Go Brandon to leave the race? To stay out of it?  To secretly root for him to stay in the race? To secretly root for Kamala Harris to be the replacement? To have Trump face Gavin Newsome instead? Or Gretchen Whitmer?

That's a lot to unpack. What we know with almost certainty is that if Let's Go Brandon stays in the race, Trump will win. Yes, there is a slight chance Let's Go Brandon could recover with some good campaign speeches, some good interviews, and a really good second debate. I wouldn't put my own money on that happening. Additionally if Let's Go Brandon stays in the race, there is probably a down-ballot impact that affects congress, and hopefully the senate too. That is a good scenario for the GOP  

We know if Let's Go Brandon decides not to run again, there will be chaos within the Democratic party.
Here's a taste of that:

That's also a win for the GOP, at least in the short term. If the Democrats come up with a candidate that they can rally around, that could end up being bad news for the GOP. While that's not highly likely, it is a possibility. It's a bit of a wildcard scenario come November. I would classify that as less desirable than an almost certain Trump win with Let's Go Brandon in the race.

If he decides to step down from the presidency before the election, the chaos would be much greater. Kamala Harris would become the president in that case, and most likely (but not necessarily) the nominee as well.

As I write this, it may all be moot - more to follow:

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