January 1, 2022

2022 a potential retrospective

I'm not sure whether I'm optimistic or pessimistic about 2022.  On one hand there's another 3 years of dealing with the "Let's Go Brandon" administration.  On the other hand, it's expected that there will be a substantial red wave in the congressional elections. That should put a stop or at least a brake on Democrat overreach for the time being.  That is, if it materializes.  On top of that, a red wave comes with it's own downside; Brandon might not run in 2024 after a midterm trouncing.  I don't think, other than possibly Jimmy Carter, there has been a more beatable incumbent in  my lifetime. I want Let's Go Brandon to flail around aimlessly for another three years, to help ensure a massive Republican landslide in 2024 across the board.

Here's another potential pitfall, if the Republicans come in and do too well, some of the credit will unfairly land with the ineffectual incumbent among low information voters. Their success may be their own undoing if that happens. You know the likes of CNN, after bashing Republican legislative efforts will anoint any successes upon the Let's Go Brandon administration.

Still my recommendation would be investigate, censure sure, but do not impeach him.  If he's gone there's no way Kamala Harris runs in 2024, and then you are into wildcard territory with the next presidential election. The next Democrat might look as appealing to Democrat voters as did Brandon at one point. You don't want that.  Let the Democrats marinate in their own 2020 mistake. It can only help. Pile on a little, but mostly stand back and let their mistakes compound rather than give them a common enemy to rally against.

Then there's still also COVID-19 Omnicron panic or more correctly, societal abuse among the establishment media and power elites. They don't want society returning to normal. Not when their mantra includes "never let a crisis go to waste".  That will continue to ebb away in terms of general panic though.  It just cannot be sustained outside of the most Karen-y among us.

Then there's inflation. It's going to continue to get worse for quite some time before it gets better.  2022 is not that 'better' time frame. We might get to QE47 (the 47th attempt at Quantitative Easing by the Federal Reserve) before 'better' happens. But seriously, it ain't happening this year. Maybe 2023 or 2024.

And you've got to combine the COVID next after next lockdown panic with the supply chain mismanagement and you've got a recipe for rising unemployment in 2022. Inflation plus unemployment is stagflation. It's not supposed to happen and the odiferous Jimmy Carter was the poster boy for that.  He may end up supplanted by Let's Go Brandon as the king of the horrible economy.

Then there's Russian aggression in the Ukraine and China's hunger to take Taiwan. Despite the feckless and brainless Let's Go Brandon, I don't think either of those situations will come to fighting in 2023. All Brandon has to do is endorse Ukrainian membership in NATO and Russia will be forced to back down.  Of course Brandon has a history of intervening in the Ukraine, but always on the wrong side of justice, so maybe he won't. That's the the risk that Russia might act on it's territorial expansion in 2023. It's possible, but I'd say at best the odds are 50/50.  

As for China, they have serious economic challenges to focus on.  That's a distraction from Taiwan.  Unlike in America, using a war as a distraction a la Bill Clinton, is not necessary.  China owns the media.  But they have to focus on their own brewing economic issues first. Yes Taiwan might help in that regard BUT, only if things go perfectly smoothly for them in an invasion and takeover scenario. That is far from guaranteed. The possibility that the economy gets so bad China wants to take over Taiwanese semi-conductor production and hold the world hostage based on a monopoly exists but again that scenario is probably further out in time than 2022. I'd say at best there's a 33% chance China invades. At best.

Lastly, Betty White will not make it to her 100th birthday sadly.  But that's a strike against late 2021 not 2022.

So am I going to look back retrospectively on 2022 as a good year at this point next year? No.  But I don't think it will be bad either.  It's looking like a definite mixed bag year.  After an abysmal year of Let's Go Brandon, I'll take that as an improvement.

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