December 30, 2014

2015 Predictions

I don't relish predicting the upcoming year as I have a lousy record at predicting events.  Nevertheless, it makes for a funny review at year end.  That said there are a few things I think are probable.  To protect myself from future ridicule I will mix in what I think is probable with what I think is less probable (much less in some cases) in the predictions below.  Keep in m ind these represent predictions, not preferences.

(1) Announcing a run for president in 2015: Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, Ted Cruz

(2) Not announcing a run in 2015: Joe Biden, Mitt Romney, Scott Walker, Sarah Palin and Ben Carson

(3) New England will play Seattle in the Superbowl. The win I see as a toss up, so I'm going with New England.

(4)  Hillary Clinton will stumble and her status as heir apparent in the Democratic party will be shaken, perhaps for good.

(5) Oil prices will stay low for at least half of 2015, more likely through September and maybe even the whole year.

(6) Japan, Europe and China will feel economic weakness in 2015 and the recessionary pressures could spread to North America.

(7) President Obama will continue to work around Congress and his approval ratings will reach the into the 30's (37%?).  He will not recover above 41% for the remainder of his presidency.

(8) Joblessness will continue to decline slowly, but at the end of his presidency Obama will have a record-setting unemployment legacy that dates back to the Depression era numbers.

(9) Russia will slow it's economic decay but the slide will continue throughout the year.

(10) Terrorist activities will continue to plague the Western world, not just America, however, the success of ISIS will abate and the acts of terror will tend to be lone-wolf or small cell group  sorts of problems.

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