July 24, 2014

Thursday Hillary Bash - Wednesday Warren Warning?

Yesterday I posted a Wednesday Warren Warning for the first time.  I still believe Hillary Clinton is the inevitable Democratic nominee for president in 2016, but now I'd say "almost inevitable" rather than inevitable.  The left, at least the progressive left, is having their temper tantrum with Hillary right now.  After an awful stretch of events recently for Hillary, anyone but Hillary seems to be more plausible than it was 6 months go.

But at some point in 2015, Hillary will be the de facto nominee again for Democrats. Almost inevitably.  While Biden won't step aside for her run, he's not a serious challenger.  Warren however, could somehow manage to duplicate Obama's unlikely successful 2008 run.  But Hillary has stumbled before (in 2008).  And while she's likely to stumble yet again in her march towards the White House, she's probably very happy to be getting her latest stumbles out of the way now instead of later on.

Hillary's tumbles haven't stopped her from making wads of money for her run.  Money makes a big difference between success and failure.  And while she's no close friend of the media, they are still going to fall in line for her.  As soon as Warren makes her own inevitable next stumble ("you didn't build that", "I'm 1/8th Indian"), they'll fear a Republican win and flock back to Clinton.  2016 will not be 2012.  The American public won't have an incumbent to begrudgingly reward (see Bush or Obama) with another term.  It's going to be an open contest.  They're going to need the odds-on favorite in the Democrat column.

The Hill for example  has already started to fall in line.  In n article yesterday they seemed to be trying to help her shape her message and vision out of no real message or vision:
But as necessary as it is for the former first lady to come up with a simple message — the lack of which, Clinton allies say, was perhaps a fatal flaw of her 2008 campaign — it’s also a difficult task. In essence, Clinton needs her own “hope and change” theme.

Clinton allies say one is emerging.

“Hillary Clinton has made it clear that should she run for president, her forward-thinking agenda will be reflective of her life’s work — leveling the playing field and giving everyone a chance to succeed,” said Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for Correct the Record, a pro-Clinton super-PAC. “She said very clearly, just this month, that the current disparity must be fixed so that hard work is rewarded and our system works for everyone.”
Apparently some believe that theme is a message. There is no message. No explanation of how to achieve fairness, only a notion of "fairness". She's clearly trying to cut off Warren's play to the left for now. But do I need to point out the childishness of her 'message'? Okay. Hard work is not always rewarded. Last year the Denver Broncos worked very hard to make it to the Superbowl and lost. In fact they were crushed. Hard work is important but the government can't control every external environmental factor up-to-and-including luck.

But The Hill remains undeterred, trumpeting a poll showing a strong Hillary lead in Florida today. Dutifully done The Hill, dutifully done. Perhaps you could change your name to "The Hillary"?

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