Why Lieberman will stay put with Democrats.

The Hill is reporting that John Cornyn is inviting Joe Lieberman to caucus with the GOP. That's a tactic the Democrats used with Arlen Specter and it did him not a lick of good. But that aside, there is a bigger reason that Lieberman would continue to hang with the Democrats; the Tea Party.

On the surface it might make some political sense for Lieberman to switch sides. He would keep any seniority in committees and in a blue state, he has enough of a track record to maintain his liberal bona fides and win again. But that's where the story ends. Lieberman doesn't need to switch parties in the next election cycle to hope to survive a GOP Wave II in 2012. He's still a liberal leaning Senator in a liberal leaning state.

But even more important than the Specter example, the mostly leftward bent of his home state, is the state of the GOP. The Tea Party narrative will dominate the GOP agenda the next two years and perhaps beyond. That's too right leaning for Lieberman and it also leaves him out of any real power in his would-be new caucus. He'd be left standing on the sidelines or stepping into a major power struggle within the GOP. Why would he accept that? What would be his incentive? Would he accept a role as a new RINO in a grass roots conservative driven team? It makes no sense.

And why would Cornyn be saying any of this before the polls close? Is that not an admission that the GOP is going to come up short in the Senate? Could that not suppress the conservative turnout in today's close Senate races? Bad tactical move Senator. Bad tactical move.

On a personal level, does that not set up Cornyn as a possible Republican foil to the likes of Jim DeMint and the Tea Party? It looks like he's trying to counterbalance conservatives with another moderate/liberal. It looks like he buys the media hype about a Republican Civil War. Is that where he or anyone in the GOP elite need to be right now - being seen as fighting those who gave them another chance?

Try it tomorrow if you have 1 Senator short of a majority. Then you look like a hero if you pull it off and or as a cagey tactician for trying if you don't. Try it now and it looks desperate for whatever reason. That in itself is one more reason Lieberman is likely to turn up his nose to the offer and stay put.