February 20, 2020

Warren TKO's Bloomberg in Round 1

Yesterday I was speculating about the possible outcomes of the Democrat debate.  My last point seems to be the most apt with respect to the outcome.  Warren went after Bloomberg hard and fast and it made a difference. It could provide her with a mini-resurgence in polling.  More importantly she hurt Bloomberg.  Bloomberg meanwhile went after Sanders and got in a few jabs himself.

It was so bad it almost makes Bloomberg the preferred candidate for president Trump to trounce in November.  But watching the debate, it seems the candidates' impacts are as follows:

-everyone not on the stage, has become irrelevant (I'm looking at you Tom Steyer)
-Warren should see a mini surge but it is likely to not be a sustained trend unless she does something else to capitalize on it (i.e. when is the next debate where she has the opportunity to attack someone?)
-Bloomberg is definitely wounded and he needs to recover quickly.  More advertising is not the answer here, he will need to do interviews and brush up for the next debate so he can perform better.  His weakness was obvious and it's exploitable unless he can correct it quickly.
-Biden seemed annoyed that he had to debate, when he was making points it seemed like scripted talking points
-Klobuchar and Buttigieg both were unremarkable but looked like they were going after each other as a sort of under card, side battle.  It diminished both of them overall.

The real winner was president Trump.  The Democrats looked badly in disarray.  Coming out of this I think if I had to call a Democrat winner it was Sanders - he continues to lead and he wasn't the main target last night.  As long as that continues, he will be able to consolidate his lead unchecked, perhaps only stalled a little due to Warren's good showing.  The big loser was clearly Bloomberg.

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