This Alan Lichtman guy has cooked himself and is ruining the shreds of his own credibility and that of his model. This election cycle he was way off, and instead of addressing why, he continues to dig himself into a deeper hole.
I can tell you why his model can be right and still provide the wrong answer. It's actually pretty amazing. His model has been highly accurate previously. It isn't perfect, but it was a pretty good model. Here's the problem with it; it's open to a high degree of subjectivity from the person inputting stuff into the model. I read the keys to the model and got a different score than Lichtman did and a different score than Tim Pool did when he tried it.
The model did not fail, Alan Lichtman fed partisan garbage into it. I don't even mean that in a pejorative way. I mean garbage in -> garbage out. The model wasn't wrong, Alan Lichtman was wrong. If he had been far more objective in his assessment of his own keys, he would have gotten it right. He live-streamed the election and you can see his slow burn meltdown, trying to convince himself that his model was correct.
Now, was his judgement clouded by partisanship or was his partisanship that night a result of his projection and trying to have his model come up a winner again? I don't know for sure but I suspect the former; his original inputs were weirdly partisan skewed. It was a rose-colored glasses view of the Harris campaign, across the board. Either he's ill-informed at that point, or purely partisan.
I believe he's highly partisan. He's taking any criticism (and there have been a lot, from many different corners) as a personal attack. That's still not enough evidence that it's the partisan views that sank his model vs. just not being well informed about the state of the nation and political winds. But this ought to clinch the deal on the partisanship; here he is throwing the credibility of his model out the window in a quest to defame president-elect Trump. It's partisanship over reason at the highest setting:
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