State of the race - Nov 3rd

So a rush of Kamala Harris leading polls dropped this weekend, one even showing Harris winning Iowa. Tis to laugh. But there are a bunch of New York Times swing state polls spelling good news for Kamala Harris, among others. I just don't buy it.  Here's what I am seeing as of this morning:

I see Trump winning handily in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. I also see him winning in Nevada and Pennsylvania by slim margins, and I see nailbiters that either candidate could win, in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Now let me caveat my own findings.

In Michigan there's a Marist poll that's got Harris ahead by 3, while the rest of the recent and reasonable polls have the race too close to call. So as a nailbiter I still think Michigan is leaning Trump but it is a too close to call state. With Trump typically overperforming his polling, I think this should still go Trump.  However, I do not say that with overwhelming confidence and it could be stolen by Democrat shenanigans. 

The story in Wisconsin is similar to Michigan; a Marist poll pulling the average towards Kamala. Looking at only the three polls that I think fit the late stage and reasonable margin of error, sample size and likely without sample issues, I see Trump at 50.5% and Harris at 49.5%. Tight but winnable for Trump.

North Carolina has swung closer to Trump, but all of the four polls I am including are what most consider right-leaning pollsters; Fox, Rasmussen, Atlas Intel and Trafalgar. I'm not suggesting these pollsters are wrong, but there is a risk of confirmation bias and polling bias overstating Trump support. 

The same is true for Georgia (two polls, both from the aforementioned group) and to a lesser extent, Arizona (three polls, two right leaning and one I am unfamiliar with). It is also the case for Nevada, with 3 reasonable late polls all showing Trump ahead, but all three are right leaning pollsters. That said I think the first two states are both pretty solidly Trump. Nevada is probably a lot closer but I'd give a slight edge to Trump.

That leaves Pennsylvania, where there are seven viable polls. On the left leaning side, the Washington Post has Harris ahead by roughly 1, Marist has her ahead by 3. The other poll I think skews a bit left is Quinnipiac, which actually has Trump ahead by 2. The right leaning polls are as follows, Fox - Trump +2, Insider Advantage - Trump +1, Rasmussen - Trump +2 and Atlas Intel - Trump +2. I think Trump wins the state.

Overall, I still see Trump winning the electoral college, handily, minus any malfeasance.

For what it's worth, for the national popular vote I am seeing Trump at 50.94%.