Republicans still seem to believe the path to victory is to ignore their base. Obama should have strongly disabused them of the notion that catering to your grassroots will negate your chances of winning the White House.
By now the rumors abound about Jeb Bush running for president in 2016. They almost are not even rumors anymore. There are articles saying that if Jeb Bush`s last name was anything else, conservatives would be begging him to run. I doubt that, but that`s neither here nor there. Jeb Bush should not run. Here`s why.
It simply comes down to this - his last name IS Bush. He could be far more conservative than his brother or father. It isn`t clear that he is mind you, but even if he were, it doesn`t matter. He could stop making liberalesque decrees that accuse Republicans of being heartless on amnesty as of today. It won`t matter.
A Jeb Bush nomination for president will ensure a Hillary Clinton presidency after the 2016 election.
Conservatives have had two Bush presidencies filled with domestic liberalism - tax increases, Medicare increases, suspect Supreme Court judicial nominations, softness on immigration and all sorts of other items. It`s true that W. still has a group of conservative supporters when it comes to national defense, but even in that there is no unanimity. Conservatives do not want another liberal Republican as their nominee. Another Bush will be perceived as another H.W. Bush or a W.Bush or another McCain, Romney, Ford or Bob Dole. Conservatives, particularly Tea Party conservatives will stay home in droves on election day.
Conversely, the far left are not huge fans of Hillary Clinton because for some reason she is perceived as mainstream by far too many people. While they may not be too inclined to turn out and vote for her, the dynamic changes completely if she is running against a man with the name Bush, whom they will view as a member of a clan of evil Bush gnomes. Bush hatred (aka Bush Derangement Syndrome) is not dead, only dormant.
It also should not be overlooked that a Bush win will also convey the message that the disconnect between
Republicans and conservative voters, has become an all out feud - an attempt to suppress the conservatives within the party in order to win in the center (which has already been redefined as far left of the original center by those on the left, and subsequently accepted as the center by the media). Disenfranchising voters is not a recipe for GOP success. Meanwhile, the GOP can not expect to win many new voters from the left of center who have been inundated with the message that Republicans are anti-human.
In short another Bush nominee ensures lower Republican turnout and higher Democrat turnout. That means not only does Hilary Clinton, a very liberal Democrat wins the presidency, but also a downstream impact in Senate, Congressional, and state offices will be negatively affected for Republicans. If Jeb Bush really wants to help his country, he won`t run in 2016.