This is not an April Fool's Day joke

I wish it were. In France the popular party leader Marine Le Pen has been banned. Why? Because she's been deemed "Far Right".  Europe is pretty much dead. Maybe not Italy and Eastern Europe but the traditional Western Europe is anything but Western now. Maybe it is a joke; not the story, but rather Western Europe.

France will implode with this as the guaranteed outcome

The center and the left colluded against the right to ensure Le Pen did not become the leader of France. Macron is so hostile to the right he'd rather be a minority partner in the far left's coalition. 

Two things; (1) the center really isn't a center, and that goes beyond just France and (2) France is doomed to destroy itself unless this can be fixed, and the only way that happens is for more French to wake up to reality. I'm not optimistic about a great French awakening so France will implode.  Good move France.

As they might say in French, "Félicitations France!"

French leftist parties collude with French centrists

In France, the leftist and "centrist" parties are having candidates drop out for the second round of voting to stop the conservative parties from winning an outright majority. Why would the centrist parties do this with the left?  Either they are leftists themselves, or they are being spiteful about their loss, or they realize that they will disappear if there are only left and right candidates holding the vast majority of seats. They don't want to be irrelevant. France may yet succumb to the self inflicted status quo they don't want because of this, joining the U.K. in the sadly, seemingly unstoppable drift leftward that has plagued most of western society, despite the growing desire to stop it.

French elections explained

This is a great explainer of how French elections work and how difficult it might be for the French, female Trump, Marine Le Pen, to win the second round of French elections coming up outright. These weird tactical set-up elections favor the centrists or the left. Stay tuned.

The coming French election

Paul Joseph Watson's comical but accurate take on the panic over a possible Le Pen win in the coming election:

French media calls out America's 'woke dictatorship'

Via Fox News:

While you weren't looking (or being told) France caves

Remember that Paris Agreement on climate change that president Trump withdrew from on behalf of the United States?  Turns out people in France are not so keen on the imposition of more taxes on gasoline either.  As a result France's leader Macron has backed down, for 6 now at least:

Populism it turns out, is not strictly an American phenomenon.

France Trumps Le Pen

Marine Le Pen, populist nationalist leader - not really the far-right extremist as the media so resolutely describes her - lost France's runoff election to Globalist, Socialist (aka "centrist" if you ask the mainstream media) and clueless neophyte, Emmanuel Macron in a blowout election.  Sad as it is for reformers around the world, it's not surprising.  France has become hopelessly socialist, hopelessly globalist and hopelessly the opposite of Brexit and Trumpian nationalism in America.

Heck, Macron has already threatened Poland with sanctions for not accepting their share of Syrian refugees.  

Le Pen was a long shot, not because her message was wrong, but because France is so far gone. It's going to turn into Greece (economy-wise) + Germany (immigration-wise) on a much larger scale because of this election.  And when that inevitably happens it's going to be hard to continue to feel sympathy for such a misguided nation of rubes.  Sorry France, but that's the truth.

France's Le Pen has no shot of winning the election (à la Trump)

To read the opinion pieces in Western media, Marine Le Pen is a far-right nationalist candidate in France.  She won enough support to make it to the run-off second election.  While she is trailing the other top vote-getter, Macron, by a very substantial margin, so too did Donald Trump trail Hillary Clinton.  Trump as we know, emerged victorious.  So too was the case with Brexit, which was supposed to be a trouncing for the attempt to leave the E.U. but turned out to be a win for the Brexit supporters.

Le Pen is portrayed as a far right candidate.  That's what the media equates nationalism to these days, regardless of nation, regardless of any other factor.  If you are proud of your country, and want to put your country first, you are a far-right radical.  Nationalism is being repressed in subordination to globalism.  Without getting to far down into the rabbit hole of globalism helping a few versus nationalism being self-defeating, France is facing a question of nationalism, just as America and the U.K. recently have also done.

There is nothing wrong wanting to put your country first.  There is problems with radical nationalism just as there is with radical Islam - it can devolve into a hatred for others.  But there is a very, very long walk from issues like border security and trade and jobs to "destroy all others" .  The supposed far right or alt-right desire to fit the latter view is misleading.  This is why Trump won the election.  If the media tells you that you are a crazy loon if you support Trump, and you support Trump, and know you are not crazy, then perhaps the only possible conclusion is that the media is wrong.

Which brings us back to Le Pen.    She has a steeper hill to climb than Trump, and the establishment and practically everyone else is aligned against her and her supporters in favor of an untested newbie with no discernable ability to lead.  Nonetheless he holds a powerful lead, and Le Pen has a short window to overcome it.  Odds are she will not win, and I'm skeptical to put the same faith in the French people's spirit and pride as I do with the American people.  It's possible, and I am hopeful that she can pull out a victory.  France needs to step away from the brink of being culturally swamped by immigrants who hold neither western nor French values or culture in anything but contempt.

Le Pen does not have a 0% chance of winning. She is undoubtedly a long shot but a number of long shots have paid off in the past year. 

France elections loom large

Speaking of elections - France is about to go to the polls and the French Trump, Marine Le Pen, is very possibly going to finish top 2 and face a run-off of her own. Despite a surging... communist?!?

One of the frontrunners in the French presidential election, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, says she would suspend all legal immigration to France.

The National Front (FN) leader told a rally that she wanted to stop "a mad, uncontrolled situation".

Polls suggest she is neck and neck with centrist Emmanuel Macron, ahead of Sunday's first round of voting.

Mr Macron warned voters that choosing far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon would be like Cuba without the sun.

Odds are that at the end of the day Marcon will win the runoff. But they claimed similar outcomes for both Trump and Brexit. Stay tuned.

Saturday Learning Series - Geography (France)

Geography Now's look at France.


And the flag video:

Mew

France and Russia have promised Holy Hell in retaliation for the terrorist events that affected their nations. Russia probably will back up it's tough talk (so I'll exempt Russia from the remainder of this commentary).  France is flying sorties and bombing ISIS camps. Weak tea, but still it's something.  Britain and the U.S. have denounced ISIS, using ramped-up stern language.  Canada's new Prime Minister is sticking to his election promise of stopping flying sorties in support of combating ISIS and instead will up our training contingent who are training Iraqi's.  Even if we double that effort it's still likely less than 200 boots on the ground, nowhere near combat if they can help it.

Oh and Obama is doubling down on closing Gitmo. 

Bunch of pussy cats.

History Repeating: Could the start of WWI instruct us now?

With president Hollande of France speaking in terms last night of a pitiless war, something far more aggressive than the tone taken by president Bush, is France on the brink of a War on Islamic jihad and ISIS in particular? With British Prime Minister stating that France's fight was their fight as well, and Obama (incorrectly) stating that this was an attack on all humanity (really, it's an attack on the West and Western values by another faction of humanity), is an alliance forming, and war inevitable? Are we past the point of no return?

What causes a war? Often the mirror of history looks at simple events first and later complexity is layered in.  The cause of World War I was supposedly an assassination, but the reality around it, and leading up to the events that triggered the war was far more nuanced (excuse the progressive word that dismisses black and white explanations, but in this case it may have been true).

How did WWI start?

The simplest answer is that the immediate cause was the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, the archduke of Austria-Hungary. His death at the hands of Gavrilo Princip – a Serbian nationalist with ties to the secretive military group known as the Black Hand – propelled the major European military powers towards war.

The events that led up to the assassination are significantly more complicated, but most scholars agree that the gradual emergence of a group of alliances between major powers was partly to blame for the descent into war.

By 1914, those alliances resulted in the six major powers of Europe coalescing into two broad groups: Britain, France and Russia formed the Triple Entente, while Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy comprised the Triple Alliance.

As these countries came to each other's aid after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, their declarations of war produced a domino effect.

Perhaps more important than the establishment of alliances is the fact that a singular event can have such a large ripple effect. Whether a war or terror is a good idea or not (and I believe it's simply a necessity at this point), what strikes me now is that this sure looks like history repeating. We would be wise to learn the lessons of history, if for no other reason than to understand the events that envelop us.

Recent ISIS activity - more than just France

A day prior to the attacks in Paris, ISIS perpetrated 2 suicide bombings in Lebanon.



And there was a possible ISIS attack on the Russian Airbus recently as well.



Is ISIS starting a major offensive, or is it a coincidence? One thing is certain, the group is not JV.

ISIS no longer JV

What is currently going on in France is horrific. One arrest has been made and the suspect claimed to be from Syria, with others and recruited by ISIS.  That is not Junior Varsity, that's an al Qaida level of scary.  The president's prior dismissive remarks on ISIS, for political purposes, was clearly and is now indisputably wrong.

If I were in Germany now, I'd be really worried about the welcome provided Syrians by Angela Merkel. Frankly, anywhere in Europe right now, I'd be quite nervous. Not just today, for the foreseeable future. 

It's about time the West draws a line in the sand on ISIS, and by in the sand, I mean somewhere in Iraq and/or Syria.

Because socialism works in Europe, right?

Europe has a history of failed socialism (stretching back decades) and successful capitalism (stretching back centuries). So when Germans want to be like the French, is all finally lost?

All across Europe, political parties are under strain. After years of high unemployment and flatlining economies, voters have had enough of austerity and budget cuts. They don't want any more rhetoric about tightening belts - they want promises of milk and honey. Just one problem: There is no money left.

Europe is experiencing is a classic middle-class squeeze - a typical fixture of American politics that has crossed the pond to pester European politicians. Leaders across the Continent are left facing this dilemma: How to strengthen the middle class in an adverse environment where money is tight, debts are high, and budget deficits loom large?

It gets worse.

Recently, another European think tank released yet another graph projecting the aging of populations in the coming 20 years. The findings revealed deep trouble for a country thought to be at a peak of economic power: Germany. And even as its population starts to shrink and age, resulting in a smaller labor work force and dwindling fiscal contributions to social programs, the demands of Germany's middle class are increasing.

Peugeot and Camembert cheese or Mercedes, BMW, and Volkswagen? Which has been a more successful economy?  

And now there's word Greece wants to leave the E.U. Let them go (see Let California fail for the reasoning).  Seriously GErmany, let them go.  Before you turn into France.  And make them pick up their own over-the-top-social-programs-debt themselves.

President Obama is above the law...

...according none other than president Obama:

Ironic that he's meeting with the French president when he made this comment.  It was Louis XIV of France who supposedly claimed "I am the state."

Charlie Hebdo has angered Muslims

Charlie Hebdo is not a person.  Charlie Hebdo is a satirical magazine in France and it has angered Muslims with an editorial cartoon.  The magazine follows the French tradition of skewering religion.  Free speech in France, is under a microscope as a result.

Conservative Christians might find themselves in an awkward position of having to defend those who would attack religion, or else those who would attack religious disrespect.  French Christians no doubt have felt Charlie Hebdo's sting in the past.

Many French newspapers have rushed to the defence of Charlie Hebdo after the weekly satirical paper published cartoons showing the Prophet Muhammad.

Others, however, accuse the paper of acting irresponsibly in the current context and run front-page headlines warning of the consequences.

A front-page editorial in the centre-left daily Le Monde says the "fundamental" principle of freedom of expression outweighs any other concerns, including religious ones.

The fact that religions may be subjected not just to criticism but also to ridicule has been "clear since Voltaire", it says.

"Whatever people may think of Charlie Hebdo's editorial choices... the only conceivable limit to its freedom is that which the courts might judge to be justified," the paper concludes...

Other papers emphasise the need to act responsibly.

A front-page editorial by Yves Threard published by the centre-right daily Le Figaro says publishing such cartoons is "as easy as it is irresponsible". Resorting to "silly provocations" to respond to Islamists' attempts at intimidation means "falling into their trap", the paper judges.

A commentary by the writer Jean-François Bouthors in the best-selling regional daily Ouest France warns that "claiming to defend the freedom of expression by in turn engaging in a game of contempt, sarcasm and stigmatisation is very wrong".

Mature Subject Matter - Reader Discretion Advised

Go play, grown ups are talking.

If you are in France, you can't read this. You just voted in a socialist government because you couldn't handle the necessary austerity measures, in a country so socialist already, it shouldn't make much of a difference that the socialist won - there isn't much room to move left anyway:

France currently has a government that absorbs more than 50 percent of its economy. They have a cradle-to-grave employment system, where once you have a job it is virtually impossible to lose it no matter your level of performance.

The retirement system for many union and government employees allows a person to retire at age 55 at close to full pay. For a while they had in place a 35-hour work-week law, which is still followed by many businesses and government entities. 

With these types of policies, it would seem difficult to imagine what a socialist government would change. But there is still room for movement to the left, according to the folks who are running. 

One candidate, who was eliminated from Sunday’s runoff but whose ideas linger on, proposed that all income above $350,000 should go to the government. A cause célèbre of the campaign has been a $22 million euro bonus which reflected in large part accrued, deferred compensation paid to the head of one of France’s fastest growing and most profitable companies that has added hundreds of new jobs.

Dictator Watch - World War Iran edition

Iran is trending towards being a danger spot for a breakout of hostilities very quickly, and it looks like there is the potential for it to drag everyone into something of a broader conflict. France is being affected, Israel is widely seen as a future Iranian target, and meanwhile Russia and China are likely to back Iran in any conflicts as they did with Syria, an Iranian ally.

While Britain is worried that there could be an escalation of tensions with Iran, Iran is stopping oil to the U.K. and France:

"Exporting crude to British and French companies has been stopped ... we will sell our oil to new customers," spokesman Alireza Nikzad was quoted as saying by the ministry of petroleum website.

Meanwhile reports are that they are on the brink of a nuclear capabilities jump in their peaceful purposes nuclear facilities built in bunkers deep underground.

Iran is poised to greatly expand uranium enrichment at a fortified underground bunker to a point that would boost how quickly it could make nuclear warheads, diplomats tell The Associated Press. They said Tehran has put finishing touches for the installation of thousands of new-generation centrifuges at the cavernous facility -- machines that can produce enriched uranium much more quickly and efficiently than its present machines.

While saying that the electrical circuitry, piping and supporting equipment for the new centrifuges was now in place, the diplomats emphasized that Tehran had not started installing the new machines at its Fordo facility and could not say whether it was planning to.

Still, the senior diplomats -- who asked for anonymity because their information was privileged -- suggested that Tehran would have little reason to prepare the ground for the better centrifuges unless it planned to operate them. They spoke in recent interviews -- the last one Saturday.

The United States is not so naive as to be standing by - at least diplomatically.  When the time comes the Obama administration may be reticent to help out Israel, but at least they are talking;

JERUSALEM — President Barack Obama’s national security adviser huddled with Israeli leaders on Sunday to discuss Iran’s nuclear program following growing speculation that Israel is planning military action against Tehran. 

 Tom Donilon was to meet with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak before leaving on Monday.

While the White House seems on the surface, worried about Israel's possible actions, with Iraq and Afghanistan slowing or slowed to a halt, and a president with precious little to trade on for re-election, perhaps the president sees Iran as a way to build on his tough guy image which he didn't really even earn when the navy seals got Bin Laden.

I'm not one for conspiracies, and I don't believe it's the case, but it almost seems as if the die has been cast for a regional conflict to grow into something far more substantial and global in nature.  If China and the United States end up on opposite sides of a military conflict, even if by proxy, there will be trade and balance of payment implications that should have both countries very concerned, in addition to the potential damages of the hostilities themselves.  That's something that should have everyone worried right now.