Iran to Obama - Stop Meddling

CNN is reporting today that Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, has told President Obama to back off.

Also Thursday, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the declared winner in the disputed June 12 election, told President Obama to stop "interfering" in Iran's affairs, the semi-official Fars news agency reported.

"The question is, do you want to use this kind of literature to address Iran and create a dialogue?" Ahmadinejad said. "If this is your position, then there is nothing to talk about."

Good thing that don't meddle approach was taken or he'd REALLY, REALLY be accusing the United states of interference.

At least the July 4th hot dog open invitation to the last man standing in Iran has been taken off the table.

You know the old saying: "Better LAME than never."

How To Fake An Electoral Victory

Ahmadinejad clearly has got a lot to learn about how to stage an electoral victory. If you are going to fake an election, you can't just go old school like the Soviet Union used to do and declare margins of victory over 90%. Why? It doesn't work any more. You know how you can tell? They are fighting in the streets of Tehran.

How obviously did the election results in Iran have to be bogus in order to cause demonstrations and international denunciation? Ahmadinejad claimed 67% of the popular vote. Clearly, that number is so high as to be universally regarded as bogus. Would the results have been the same if Ahmedinejad had beaten Mousavi by say 51% to 44% with the remainder going to other candidates? Would the results have been any different if the results were not announced for 4 to 8 hours after the election closed, rather than even before they could have possibly been counted and verified?

One of the oldest despot tactics is to claim a resounding victory in a rigged election. It's intended to lend an air of international and domestic legitimacy to an otherwise illegitimate regime. But fooling the public and fooling the world has become increasingly difficult in the age of the Internet, and wireless technology.

It's become far trickier for tinpot dictators in these times to write a credible storyline for their own victories. Many have had to drive down their victory margins to a level that potentially undermines their mandate for total and supreme command. Although it's not universally true.

Kim Jong Il 'won' re-election in March 2009 with 100% of the popular vote with 100% voter turnout. A stunning victory to say the least. With support like that, maybe he should rule the planet. He could pose a real challenge to Obama.

The Castro brothers won another election in 2008, this time Raul Castro, not Fidel won the job with a 99.4% support level and 95% turnout. Clearly a legitimate victory when compared to the 100% Jong Il clearly faked.

Further down the despot chain, you start to see more 'credible' deceit start to creep in.

Hugo Chavez, having tried unsuccessfully to win a constitutional reform to allow him to remain in power indefinitely, had to lower the bar for his victory. Having won an election in 2006 with 63% of the vote, he tried immediately in 2007 to get the Venezuelan constitution changed to ensure himself an unending Presidency. He lost gaining only 49% support. He went about tightening his grip on the media in order to be able to perpetrate the big lie when he tried the referendum again. In February 2009, on his re-try, that margin had fallen to 54% in support of his reform.

Perhaps the real master at this is Vladimir Putin. He didn't change his countries Constitution (yet). After winning re-election in 2004 with his strong-arm tactics and a 71% support level, he backed off in 2008 and inserted a puppet replacement so that his power could continue from behind the scenes. There's no obvious impropriety there. It's as ingenious as it is evil.

Bringing it all back to Iran, as time passes and as people become more interconnected via technology, deceptions become harder and harder to perpetrate. There are only two possible outcomes of the opening up of societies like Iran to the truth. The first is more freedom and openness. Perhaps real elections might follow. With a very young populace, it could mean more alignment with the West eventually. And that would be a good thing. Secondly, there's a more sinister possibility. A brutal repression of the people of Iran that might make the Chinese disgrace at Tiannamen Square look like a family picnic. When a despot's power is threatened, especially despots', they can lash out violently. It would mean further isolation of the nation and a descent into some very dark days for the people of Iran.

What the country needs now is a strong international condemnation and demands for a new, internationally monitored election. There's supposedly a risk of causing Iran to re-ignite the insurgency in Iraq, but if a new election were demanded, it would give the Mullahs that run the theocracy enough to keep their hands full trying to maintain their grip own on power. It's a roll of the dice that the US government should be more than willing to take. Shaking up the Middle East now, is much more an opportunity than a threat. Unfortunately, I trust the Obama administration to get this one wrong too.

UPDATED: Iranian Elections

Rush Limbaugh today is pointing out President Obama's credit-taking for the 'robust debate' taking place in Iran today. We all know that Obama doesn't deserve credit for that.

But I disagree with Rush somewhat on how tightly controlled Iranian society is by the Mullahs. Yes, it is. And the election process is most likely corrupted. But the moderates sat out the last election - not so this time.

A huge percentage of the Iranian electorate was born post-Revolution. They like 'unacceptable' music and dress. The moderates are in line to win the election. It doesn't mean the reign of the fanatics is over. But it is a positive step if it transpires.

But the credit belongs to the Iranian people, not President Obama.

UPDATE: Looks like the fix is in. Either Iranians really want Ahmedinejad, or the election was fixed. My suspicion is that Mousavi would be the real winner in a fair fight.

TEHRAN (Reuters) - State media declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner of Iran's election but challenger Mirhossein Mousavi alleged irregularities and claimed victory for himself.

The state election commission said early Saturday that Ahmadinejad, a hardline conservative, was ahead with 66 percent of the votes in Friday's election after 21 million ballots were counted.

Ahmadinejad's main challenger, moderate former prime minister Mirhossein Mousavi, had 31 percent, according to the commission, which is part of the Interior Ministry. It said 61 percent of all ballot boxes had now been counted.

Dictator Watch - June 10, 2009

Today we're taking a pre-election look at the improbable end of the reign of Ahmadinejad in Iran. June 12th is the election in Iran.

Breitbart has the following surprising development;

Persian hip-hop thumps from car speakers and young hipsters—men with spiked hair and women in spike heels—dance in the streets.

It's another night and another campaign rally-turned-party for their unlikely hero: a self-styled reformist from the early years of the Islamic Revolution who is now seen as their best hope to defeat hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

But while Mir Hossein Mousavi generates the noise, passion and electricity in Tehran, Ahmadinejad has the backing of the powerful Islamic establishment and deep support in the countryside, leaving Friday's vote too close to call.

Mousavi would appear to have the momentum, drawing staggering crowds and all-night street bashes. But all that noise, fervor and electricity doesn't necessarily add up to a juggernaut, with critical stakes at play, including possible talks with Washington after a nearly three-decade diplomatic estrangement.

The post-midnight raves in Tehran's leafy suburbs are uncorking passions that seem to have caught even Mousavi by surprise. He stood in awe Monday at one end of a nearly 12-mile human chain of supporters along one of Tehran's main thoroughfares, linked by green ribbons and banners in the symbolic color of his campaign.

It's good news for the potential thawing of relationships if Ahmadinejad is ousted. True to the rock star image, Mousavi appears to be headed towards a possible upset.

In the last election in 2005, 20 million moderates sat out, all but handing Ahmadinejad his victory. Iran is one country where moderates would be most welcome. Moderation from radicalism is a good thing. Ironically, the big problem this time around, the reason for the Iranian public's displeasure with their leader, has been the country's economic woes.

Many of his reforms, including gas rationing and capping interest rates that lenders could charge, would not be unfamiliar to those critical of the policies being implemented by President Obama in the United States. Further, in an another eerie similarity, President Ahmadinejad, established a new budget planning body directly under his control, a move that gave him a much freer hand to control and implement his economic policies which have been blamed for driving up prices, in other words, interventionism causing inflation.

GM RIP

As much as I hate to see an American icon go bankrupt, it needed to be done. The bloating and hemorrhaging could not continue unabated.

That said, I'm not so sure this 'solution' that involves government ownership is the smartest thing to do. In fact, I'm sure it's NOT. GM could not protect itself from it's myopic decisions of the past, and now, it's going to have another layer of not only myopia, but political considerations layered onto it's decision-making process. How does that help? The answer is of course, it doesn't. When the government is involved, particularly one beholden to the UAW, decision making on what, where, when, and how to produce automobiles becomes a political question and not a business decision. How to sell them, how to price them, how to package them, what color to make them all are impacted by the new dynamic of government not only oversight, but direct involvement in the decision-making process.

And if the business decisions were poorly made before, they will be absolutely unfathomable going forward. It makes more sense to let GM die completely than to nurse it back to supposed health for the sake of the UAW. The talent from GM would be better suited to a new domestic automotive venture - one not beholden to dealers, auto workers, pensions, previous bad decisions, and legacy issues or government micro-management.

This bankruptcy so far looks like it will really only solve the dealership problem, and if Chrysler's Dealergate turns out to be an indicator, then the dealership problem looks like it's positioned as too many Republican dealerships 'solution'.

The government also puts itself in a conflict-of-interest position here. By owning a car company and dictating the rules to ALL domestic manufacturers, it risks the viability of the other companies (i.e. Ford, and possibly Chrysler) by being able to stack the deck in favor of GM.

No matter which way you look at the bankruptcy there's nothing good coming out of it. The government will have major control of a failed company. Who does that premise instill with any sort of confidence? If you are one of those who thinks this is a glorious opportunity (like Michael Moore), then you need to consider some of the great government involvements of the past.

Look at what it has managed to do for Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. Look at what it has done for Iran under the regime of Ahmadinejad. Those who think they know best, are often the least prepared for the unintended consequences of their decisions. Why is that? It's because people, especially those most motivated by dogma, are blinded to the realities that surround them - far more so at least, than the free market which manages to supply a demand or fill a void so efficiently. Free markets are a truly wonderful thing and a spectacle to behold. In that light, a GM bankruptcy is not to be viewed as a death of an American icon, but as an opportunity to birth something even better. And in that light, a government managed salvaging of GM, should be viewed as an attempt to keep alive a patient that is already, well...dead.

As much as I argued for bankruptcy, I now find myself arguing for a non-managed bankruptcy, free of politically motivated oversight. This does not bode well for the automobile industry in America. It does not bode well for debt holders of GM, it does not bode well for freedom from government tyranny and it does not bode well for the future of America.

Once again, a crisis is being co-opted for political purposes, and a philosophical bent. How much longer can that trend continue before something gives out for good? And by something, I mean something really big - like capitalism, or the Constitution, or the entire country.

Dictator Watch - May 25th, 2009

It's been a while but we're due for an update on the world's slate of top tier dictators.

Kim Jong Il - North Korea

I'm as strong as an ox!

The sickly looking crackpot tested an underground nuclear bomb today. There are no obvious answers to this, only questions. Why? Is he starved for attention? Is he really still in charge? Is his ailing health making him itch for war or to put his stamp on history?

Japan has condemned the action already. There have been protests in South Korea. The UN has held an emergency meeting. President Obama has called it a threat to international peace.

If I may; the condemnations really don't seem to be working.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - Iran

Tell me you didn't just say that!

There's more saber rattling today.

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran has sent six warships to international waters, including the Gulf of Aden, to show its ability to confront any foreign threats, its naval commander
said on Monday.

I bet Ahmadinejad is livid that this happened on the day that North Korea one-upped him by detonating a Hiroshima-bomb-sized nuclear device.

Trying to stay on the same page (the front page), Ahmadinejad rejected the West's nuclear proposal to stop his nuclear program in exchange for no new sanctions being imposed on his country. He also offered to debate President Obama at the UN. Why?

This time there's answers. He's facing an election next month. Debating President Obama sure would look world-stage-like. Even President Obama isn't naive enough to fall for this one (I hope). Remember Iran has recently banned Facebook - it's because of the election. State control, state control, state control. You want a compliant press and no alternative news sources for your opposition.

At least that dictatorial approach is not being paralleled in the United States. There's the Fairness Doctrine, the compliant MSM... wait, what?


Vladimir Putin - Russian

I've got the coolest bottle rocket ever!

Old Vladimir has recently warned the West not to interfere with the Ukraine. Apparently that's his personal conquest playground and others are not welcome. Still steamed over the potential placement of missile defence systems in Poland, Putin is not content to lick his wounds. He's placed Russia into the wounded grizzly bear role. We're likely to lash out so back off.

Powers have become so concentrated in Russia that the inevitable power struggle that will result may have already started;

A senior adviser to Dmitri Medvedev, the Russian president, has made a thinly-veiled attack on Vladimir Putin saying Russia will remain a second-class power until it stops concentrating power in the hands of a hard-line elite.

Delivering a rare critique of the political and economic system created by Mr Putin, Igor Yurgens accused the prime minister of abandoning reforms that he had embarked upon in 2000 at the outset of his presidency.

In an interview with the Daily Telegraph, Mr Yurgens said Mr Putin had put power in the hands of a small ruling elite, creating an energy-dependent model that was beginning to creak as the financial crisis began to weaken Russia.

An increasingly influential figure in Russia, Mr Yurgens' comments will be taken as further evidence of a rift between Mr Putin and Mr Medvedev.

Although he holds no official position, Mr Yurgens runs a think tank headed by Mr Medvedev and is one of a handful of economic and political liberals close to the heart of power.

Sweet. Shoots of reform. I'm not being overly optimistic here, just like President Obama sees shoots of recovery, clearly that represents it being all but a done deal...wait, what?

Hugo Chavez - Venezuela

We've got to find the common ground, and I have just the idea to do that.

(This section brought to you by Sean Penn...)

Not much to report here, other than Boss Hugo has continued to tighten his grip on the Venezuelan news channel Globovision. Coming soon to a country near you;

The channel, which is vehemently opposed to Mr Chávez’s socialist project, has been in the President’s sights for weeks. He says that the private media are “fascist bourgeoisie” that are “inciting hate — even war” and has ordered Globovisión to be investigated under legislation that allows the Government to shut broadcasters down.

The moves are the latest in a series of strikes against opponents as Mr Chávez seeks to deepen socialism in Venezuela. Since a February referendum victory allowing his indefinite re-election, he has sharpened his assaults on the private sector, curbed the powers of opponents in public positions and ordered corruption inquiries against critics.

The showdown with Globovisión took an aggressive turn last week when a property belonging to Guillermo Zuloaga, the president of the company, was raided. On Thursday morning government helicopters circled overhead, a team of agents and military entered the building, alleging criminal activity relating to Mr Zuloaga’s car business.

It'll never happen here. Fox is viewed by the left as not being a hate machine, but an alternative viewpoint. Wait, what?

Obama = Carter - Part II

Pre-election fears



meet post-election truths. On inflation.



On Iran, effete.



Meanwhile, reality continues to intrude;



His hypocrisy is astounding. Those who walked out were expressing their freedom of expression. He listened to the speech of the President and equates that to his own sick diatribes? All those countries walked out because of Ahmadinejad's arrogance and vile racism. But Obama will sit with him.

Weak. And racist. Just like this.

Shoe time: Israel, Iran and America

Compare and contrast the following. Iran's leader is a racist. He wants Israel destroyed. Israel is not going to back down from the threat. President Obama wants dialogue. The U.N. has a surprise in store for Ahmedinijad.

Background: Netanyahu vs Ahmedinijad



Obama's reach out:



And Ahmedinijad's response at a UN anti-racism conference:



And a possible shoe toss moment!



Unlike the President, some people at the UN seem to have developed a sense of moral absolutism (i.e. grown a pair).

Dictator Watch - April 19, 2009

A quick analysis on the state of world dictatorships: At the Summit of the America's, there was an instructive event that indicates the future state of dictatorships over the next four years. It's good news - if you happen to be a dictator.




Nicaraguan Socialist and Sandinista Daniel Ortega lashed out at the United States of America for over 50 minutes. President Obama - took notes.

As reported by Fox News;

Obama sat mostly unmoved during the speech but at times jotted notes. The speech was part of the opening ceremonies at the fifth Summit of the Americas here.

Later, at a photo opportunity with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Obama held his tongue when asked what he thought about Ortega's speech.

"It was 50 minutes long. That's what I thought." Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ignored two questions about Ortega's speech, instead offering lengthy praise of a cultural performance of dance and song opening the summit.

"I thought the cultural performance was fascinating," Clinton said. Asked again about the Ortega speech, Clinton said: "To have those first class Caribbean entertainers on all on one stage and to see how much was done in such a small amount of space, I was overwhelmed."

A senior administration official declined to criticize Ortega, saying the president wanted to focus on the future.

"His expectation is that these debates of the past can remain that, debates of the past and that the leaders can take advantage of this opportunity to focus on what they can do in the future to advance the interests of all the people of the hemisphere."

Ortega, meanwhile, droned on about the offenses of the past, dredging up U.S. support of the Somoza regime and the "illegal" war against the Sandinista regime he once led by U.S.-backed Contra rebels in the 1980s. Ortega was a member of the revolutionary junta that drove Anastasio Somoza from power in 1979 and was elected president in 1985. He was defeated in 1990 by Violeta Chamorro and ran unsuccessfully twice for the presidency before winning in 2006.

Daniel Ortega overthrew a government and then whined when the US helped the Contras try to overthrow him by helping finance the effort. Man up Ortega.

Call it focusing on the future but what it really resembles is avoidance. See No Evil, Hear No Evil. Or sticking your head in the sand until the problem goes away. It looks like that's going to be the best part of American foreign policy during this administration - avoidance. Any problem they avoid is a problem the won't exacerbate. Chavez cheated in his referendum in Venezuela, but at least he gave a present to Obama. Now Obama can say everything has been patched up.


Meanwhile North Korea and Iran are making unfettered progress on their nuclear launch programs and that head in the sand policy seems to be working wonders. The administration is still exploring talks with Iran and managed to get North Korea a parking ticket or something. Wait no, not even that. The UN got a non-binding, hands-on-the-hips and a sour faced look at North Korea. Maybe Obama can send him some stimulus money.

EXIT Question: If Clinton is "overwhelmed" by how so many dancers can fit into one space, do you think it's best to have her at the head of the State Department? Maybe it explains how she thought she was under fire flying into Bosnia.

Obama Shouldn't Talk To Ahmadinejad

President Obama is reportedly reaching out to the Iranian regime. Why? Because he promised during the election that unconditional talks were not only acceptable but a good idea. Debatable. But okay, that's his position. The question is - how unconditional?

Wired is reporting that US fighter jets shot down an Iranian drone over Iraq;

An American fighter jet shot down an Iranian drone as it was flying over Iraq, U.S. military sources in Baghdad tell Danger Room.

Details of the previously-unreported shoot-down, which occurred last month, are still sketchy. But we do know that American commanders have long accused Tehran of supplying weapons and training to all sorts of Iraqi militant groups. Shi'ite militias fired Iranian rockets at U.S. troops in Iraq, according to the American military; Sunni militias allegedly used Iranian armor-piercing bombs to reduce U.S. vehicles to ribbons.

In early 2008, however, the torrent of Iranian weapons into Iraq slowed to a trickle, the U.S. said. And now, the new Obama administration is looking for ways to reach out to the Tehran regime -- dangling invitations to international conferences,
and offering promises of renewed relations.

Which means the drone incident comes at a particularly sensitive time.

Apparently it isn't all that sensitive. If the story is correct, then the President had to know about this last month, and still proceeded with trying to put feelers out to Iran to hold talks. So it doesn't matter that there is further tangible evidence that Iran is meddling in the Iraqi rebuilding effort and trying to consolidate it's regional power by undermining and potentially subjugating it's former enemy. It doesn't matter that Iran is still seeking to build nuclear warheads. Apparently nothing matters. Unconditional means unconditional.

Unlike the President, I'm speechless.

Dictator Watch - Feb 28, 2009

Keeping up with the Tyrants

Russia: Vladimir Putin

[Where's the Red October?]

Vladimir Putin has warned people that protesting the economic crisis, being felt quite steeply in Russia, that protesting is okay, but that it has to be orderly and within the law.

NOVO-OGARYOVA, Russia, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warned opposition critics on Friday not to use the economic crisis as an excuse to challenge his government and told them to abide by the law.

Unrest across Russia over economic upheaval has been muted, with the biggest protests so far taking place in the Far East port of Vladivostok where hundreds were arrested in January demonstrations over car tax.

Speaking at a meeting with leaders of Russia's dominant political party, United Russia, ahead of regional elections this weekend, Putin said that criticism of the Russian government during a crisis was allowed, but only within the laws.

Later in a veiled reference to countries like the Ukraine, he indicated he wouldn't allow protests like the ones that led to Democratic reforms in those countries to take place in Russia. In other words, don't get out of line or we'll stomp you. It's a kinder, gentler brutal regime.

Venezuela: Hugo Chavez

[It was love at first sight.]

This guy is just loopy. In a response to a State Department report that points out problems in Venezuela, ChinaView reports:

CARACAS, Feb. 26 (Xinhua) -- The Venezuelan government on Thursday rejected a U.S. report that denounced its human rights record.

The government in defense of the sovereignty of the Venezuelan people, strongly and firmly rejects the publishing by the U.S. Department of State of a report that pretends to evaluate the general condition of Venezuela's human rights," a statement said.

The U.S. report on human rights in Latin American countries was published on
Wednesday.

Regarding Venezuela, the report pointed out "the widespread corruption, the harassment of the press and opposition, the polarization of the judicial system, and the violence against women and traffickers."

The Venezuelan statement said the country does not accept such practices of the U.S., adding that the U.S. has "the darkest record in disregarding and violating human dignity in contemporary history, yet still takes power without mandate and legitimacy to become judges of other countries."

The report was "fake and interfering," it said.

Hopefully that last line was just the result of bad interpreter - it's barely one step above 'liar, liar, pants on fire'.

North Korea: Kim Jong Il

[Still doesn't understand why Simon Cowell doesn't like him.]

The isolationist country has announced it's launching a rocket for a communications satellite. Isn't that a bit of an oxymoron? Why does an isolated country that likes to keep it's populace uniformed need a communications satellite? It's about test-firing ballistic missiles, and it's about ego.

North Korea's move comes with talks on an aid-for-disarmament deal - involving the US, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea - currently stalled.

Relations between the two Koreas are also tense following South President Lee Myung-bak's decision to link the provision of bilateral aid to progress on denuclearisation. Pyongyang has recently scrapped several peace agreements with
Seoul.

The mooted launch also follows speculation about the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, who is believed to have suffered a stroke in mid-2008. On a trip to Asia last week, the new US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned North Korea against any rash moves, saying a test-launch would be "unhelpful".

Thanks Hillary. Way to be intimidating to a despot. It's a good thing you didn't go all out and say that it was "approaching the level of near-concerning".

Brace for hostilities in the region or a possible squeeze of more economic concessions. Probably the latter. If Gaza can get $900 million, just think what Jong Il can extract from a spendaholic administration in Washington.

Iran: Ahmadinejad

[Nice parade of an Iranian missile destroying a U.S. flag. Nothing says national pride like despising America]

Of course the focus is on the missile development and nuclear development issues with Iran, but right now this appears more troubling;

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Friday that his country sees no limit for its expansion of cooperation with Iraq, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Ahmadinejad made the remarks in his meeting with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, who arrived in Tehran late Thursday for a three-day visit to the neighboring Islamic republic.

"Expansion of cooperation among regional states in different sectors, economic domain in particular, is of prime importance regarding ongoing global conditions," Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying.

"Quadrilateral cooperation among Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria is of extreme significance and is a basic pillar of sustainable security and promotion of fraternity," he added.

No mention of the United States. Presumably because they're pulling out and leaving a massive residual force that will dwindle to zero by 2011. President Obama is drawing down to please his base and get out of a 'war' (is it really still a war?) he never wanted the United States to be involved in. But the void left by the departure of American Forces, will undoubtedly be filled with regional interests attempting to take advantage of a still-weakened Iraq. Look at the countries mentioned - Syria, an Iranian puppet state, Iran, Iraq and Turkey - presumably asked to be at the table because of the Kurd issue. This does not bode well for the region, for Israel, for America, and for the renewal of terrorism fermentation.

Maybe Obama should re-think the exit strategy. I'm just saying...

Dictator Watch - Feb 14th, 2009

What better way to celebrate Valentine's Day, or perhaps more appropriately the St. Valentine's Day massacre, than with an update on dictatorial regimes?

Hugo Chavez

Yep, those are celeb-tards with the dictatorial drama queen.

According to the AP, Chavez is up to his old election tricks again. This specific one reported on Thursday, curiously does not involved arrests, beatings or intimidation but rather that old standby - blaming the United States for something. Apparently he hasn't mentioned the U.S. specifically, but give it time - the vote isn't until tomorrow. He's got to give the appearance of taking time to dig up the facts;

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez denounced a new plot against him just days before a referendum on allowing him to seek re-election, although many voters are likely to be skeptical.

Chavez, who once led a failed coup and was briefly ousted himself in a coup after he been voted into office, frequently tells of plots to oust him in the OPEC nation, without producing much evidence, before a national vote.

The Cuba ally invariably says the plot is directed from the United States and backed by the opposition.Chavez is campaigning for a referendum on Sunday that would allow him to stay in power for as long as he keeps winning elections. If he loses he
should leave office in 2013.

Pollsters say that, whether true or not, the accusations can fire up the ex-soldier's supporters, even if many Venezuelans suspect they are for political effect.

According to some polls 55% of voters oppose his attempt to change the laws on term limits that will allow him to remain in power until, as one supporter put it '2000-and-forever'.

IMPACT of a loss for Chavez? Well, he's familiar with the coup d'etat system, so that's an option for him. He would strongly suspect that by doing so he would not risk intervention from the Obama administration, who he probably views as less hawkish than the Bush administration was. Conversely the impact of a win, would simply be bad for Venezuelans. Even if many agree with his policies, allowing anyone unfettered access to power for an unlimited amount of time invites corruption. Someone wanting power as badly as Chavez does may even have himself convinced that his motives are for the good of the people. But if his motives were 'for the good of the people', he is still clouded by either ambition or grandeur, as if no other Venezuelan could come after him and continue his socialist agenda in his footsteps. He wants power far too badly for purity of motives.

Vladimir Putin

Was this guy just a frustrated Calvin Klein model-wannabe?

This from Fox News yesterday;

Less than a week after Vice President Biden told NATO and European Union diplomats in Munich that Obama wanted to “push the re-set button” on Russian-American diplomacy and reduce U.S. nuclear weapons “by 80 percent,” Moscow responded with some “new initiatives” of their own.

On Saturday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev - widely viewed as a puppet of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin - convinced Kyrgyzstan’s President Kurmanbek Bakiyev to reject American offers to renew a lucrative lease on the U.S.-built Manas Airbase outside the capital, Bishkek. Since 2001, the Manas “Airhead” had been crucial to U.S. and NATO forces operating in Afghanistan. It is even more so today, since the Taliban interdicted the overland route from Pakistan to Kabul. The next day, Moscow agreed to allow U.S. shipments of “non-lethal supplies” through Russian territory into Afghanistan over a route that was closed after Russia invaded Georgia last summer.

Just to make sure that the “new team” in Washington is paying attention, on Monday, Putin met with Cuba’s new dictator, Raul Castro. Despite Russia’s ongoing currency crisis, the collapse of the Moscow stock exchange and falling oil prices, Putin cobbled together a deal the Castro brothers are glad to get: a new financial aid package. According to press reports in Moscow and Havana, the Russians have promised $270 million in “loans” and $37 million in Russian commodities such as grain and “commercial aircraft.” Unmentioned by either country is what the Russians expect in return.

A former U.S. intelligence official warns: “The Russians never give anything away for nothing. With them, everything is a quid pro quo. Keep an eye on Lourdes.” The location referred to was a Soviet signals-intelligence site south of Havana used for “listening” to U.S. defense and NASA communications. On October 17, 2001, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced its closure.

Putin is a long road type of guy and a deceptive one too. What's clear is that he is also one who sees what he is up against and reacts accordingly. Seeing the US beef up after 9/11 he closed down the Cuba listening operation. Now, seeing a more dovish presence in the White House he's ramping up everywhere - including Cuba, efforts against the Ukraine and Georgia. He's going to push the boundaries as far as he can, while President Obama is in the mood to be conciliatory. Not a good coupling of factors as far as national security goes.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad


It looks like the country is still largely in the grip of his delusions. Mainly I suspect because they are not his alone. This report from Al Jazeera, 'respect us' like you mean it. But at the same time we'll have a carnival of throwing shoes at effigies of your leaders. Oh, and we still want Israel to be gone. You know, because THAT's fair.




Kim Jong Il

Snazzy - a wonderful cross between Philip Michael Thomas and George Kastanza.

Yet another thorn for President Obama to pick out of his side. According to the Telegraph, while North Koreans are busy celebrating the birthday of former dictator Kim Il Sung, father of the current impotentate, they were also up to some missile shenanigans.

According to the latest intelligence reports from Washington, Kim has recovered "significantly" from his bout of ill health and is back at the helm of the world's only hereditary communist government.

Other reports from the US and South Korea indicate that Pyongyang is assembling an intercontinental ballistic missile at a launch site on its east coast. The suggestion is that the Taepodong-2 missile – which could strike a target anywhere in Japan – could be fired before the end of the month and is a show of force to the incoming administration of President Barack Obama.

Oh goody.

As hawkish as Obama has been on this stimulus bill, expect him to ignore this problem until it's critical. Why? North Koreans don't vote in the mid-term elections. In fact, they don't even get to really vote. Judging by the hubris of the Democrats since November, they seem to be a little jealous of that fact.

Lessons learned

Some advice Mr. President on dealing with foreign leaders over the coming years of your administration - take a cue from how well your supposedly bi-partisan approach has worked with Congressional and Senate Republicans - it hasn't. And it just goes to prove that you can't be friends with everybody, all of the time. Oh, sure you can pretend that everything will be cool and great while you are campaigning, but you are in the real world now Mr. President.

A press tour might convince people that you are reaching out, but it doesn't change the reality on the ground. Republicans, conservatives, don't like your ideas. Or Nancy's ideas. And so too, the majority of the public. They may not be keen on any particular alternative, but they know this stinkulus package is not the answer.

What's the lesson to be learned here? Well, there are several, but let's focus on the foreign policy learnings. Not everyone wants to be your friend Mr. President. And if you can't convince Republicans that they should just get along, how do you think that same approach will work any better with Chavez/Putin/Ahmadinejad/Jong Il?

And since I'm at it, let's add in a second learning - YOU WON. So guess what, no matter how hard you try to cover your 'bases', Republicans don't agree with this fiasco of a stinkulus package and you can't get them to buy in. THIS IS YOUR BABY. YOU OWN IT. Deal with it. If it fails, you get the blame. Why? Because YOU WON.

GOP - what's the take away for you? Gallup seems to be carrying Obama's water for him.

President Obama would appear to have the upper hand in the current focus on
Congress' efforts to pass a major economic stimulus bill. Not only does Obama
get much higher approval ratings for the way in which he is handling the
stimulus issue than do either the Democrats or, in particular, the Republicans
in Congress, but a majority of Americans agree with him that passing such a bill
is critically important for improving the nation's economy.

Somebody has got this wrong - Gallup or Rasmussen? No matter to the GOP. Hold your ground and if this bill passes without your buy in, which it will, and it goes down in flames as the most wasteful, ill-conceived idea EVER, which it will, you'll be in better shape for having stuck to your guns.

Dictator Watch - Feb 1/09

Since everyone is going to be busy watching or avoiding watching the Superbowl today, it might be prudent to put together a watch list update while we are all distracted in one way or another, gorging on guacamole and pizza and burgers etc. Here then, is a brief update of the status of a few of the more infamous dictatorial regimes that we must be ever-vigilant against, even on Superbowl Sunday.

Since you might not read to the end of this post, let me pre-state the punchline;

Don't let this one slip past you America. DON'T ALLOW OBAMA TO CUT MILITARY FUNDING BY 10% .

Russian President Vladimir Putin - It looks like the ever tighten iron grip of the former KGB apparatchik, turned leader, turned shirtless dictator has hit a bit of a snag. According to the British newspaper The Daily Mail, protests are spreading across the former Soviet gulag now simply known as Russia. The deepening economic crisis that Vlady-baby has tried to pin on the evils of America and the West, are hitting Russia harder than other countries. The nation remains a possible flash point, especially if the Cardinals win this evening.

The disparate ideological range and geographic range of protest groups is creating a tinderbox of potential problems - some of the groups are ideologically opposed and could be at odds with each other, but most (not all) are at odds with the present leadership.

A possible suggestion for a solution Mr. Putin, flash 'em a bare chest again (or not);

As an aside, President Obama, this shirtless thing is never a good idea.

Looks like you are trying too hard. And Putin looks much tougher, not good.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - Mahmoud (or 'Mammie' as his still living sycophants call him) appears to be be suffering from a Persian strain of Bush Derangement Syndrome Withdrawal. Not have Bush to figuratively spit at appeared at first to have a slight calming effect on the nerdy terrorist wannabe. But no longer. He launched a tirade against President Obama recently according to Breitbart. Apparently he feels that Obama's willingness to chat is a sign of weakness (didn't McCain mention something about that during the campaign?);

"This request means Western ideology has become passive, that capitalist thought
and the system of domination have failed," Gholam Hossein Elham was quoted as
saying by the Mehr news agency.

Further detail from Breitbart,

After nearly three decades of severed ties, Obama said shortly after taking
office this month that he is willing to extend a diplomatic hand to Tehran
if the Islamic republic is ready to "unclench its fist".

In response, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad launched a fresh tirade against the United States, demanding an apology for its "crimes" against Iran and saying he expected "deep and fundamental" change from Obama.

Oh yeah, and about that nuclear bomb thing we're working on President Obama...Hey! look over there!

Venezuelan Crackpot Hugo Chavez - well not to be outdone, Hugo has three bullet points (no pun intended) for discussion this morning.

1. Chavez is orchestrating for himself a slim lead in his national referendum on Constitutional change that would allow him to remain el Presidente forever. Having lost the last few cycles, he can tamper with this one to his heart's content and still have a victory appear reasonably legitimate. Those socialist, they're not quick studies, but they do eventually learn how to win in the sneakiest of ways and still have an above-board appearance (cough-cough-ACORN). Never mind the violence associated with the win.

2. Hugo is TELLING Obama to give Guantanamo back to Cuba (uh, no.) and URGING the return of a Cuban exile and former CIA operative that Bush refused to hand over (uh, no). The exile in question, Luis Posada Carriles, would likely suffer a fate of torture, interrogation and death. Isn't this sort of like an emboldened anti-American world being more aggressive in the face of an apparently weak foreign policy President in America? I'm just asking.

3. Lastly and most importantly, Al Jazeera is reporting that Chavez and Ahmadinejad (the Iran guy) have unveiled an anti-US fund designed to help countries 'escape US imperialism' (uh, yeah, right). Some interesting points from the report;

"This fund, my brother," Chavez said, "will become a mechanism for liberation."
Chavez said the fund "will permit us to underpin investments ... above all in those countries whose governments are making efforts to liberate themselves from the [US] imperialist yoke ... Death to US imperialism."

During a visit to Iran last September, Chavez came out in support of Iran's
nuclear programme, as well as denouncing Israeli military operations in Lebanon.

and

Ahmadinejad arrived in Nicaragua late on Saturday, where Daniel Ortega has just
returned to power. The Iranian president was met at the airport by the new
Nicaraguan president.

On Monday, Ahmadinejad will take part in the swearing-in ceremony of Ecuador's new president Rafael Correa, who has vowed to forge stronger ties with Venezuela and not to renew a lease for a US military air base on the country's Pacific coast.

The Iranian president will also hold meetings with other South American presidents including Bolivia's Evo Morales on the sidelines of the ceremony in Ecuador, before finishing his tour on Tuesday.

WOW! Look at all that fermenting socialism in Central America. It's like all of the work done by Reagan and Bush 41 to free up or reinforce resistance against countries in the Western hemisphere dominated by socialist dogma ( notably Columbia - Democrats squashed the free trade agreement with the ally, Nicaragua, Panama, Grenada) is being undone in short order. Way to go Obama.

North Korean Despot Kim Jong-il - freed up from they tyranny of the evil Bush 43 years, the peaceful nation of North Korea can now return to it's Utopian goal of annexing it's southern neighbor. That's right, North Korea is talking war.

Way to go Democrats, way to go Obama! Within two weeks of the inauguration you've achieved the grand slam of foreign policy!

1. A destabilized and nuclear armed Russia, that has been drifting towards hostility to America during the entire Putin regime.

2. A re-energized and emboldened Iran.

3. A re-energized and emboldened Venezuela.

4. A re-energized and emboldened North Korea.

Also on the plus side for ultra-libs - those countries are all of socialist orientation, if not practice. AND, you've got the 80's phenom Danny Ortega on the comeback trail. Maybe he can do a guest spot on Knight Rider, or a remake of The A-Team. All in all, Biden's 6 month test is already coming in spades. The problem is, with Obamadoration still in full swing, a lazy compliant press, and an economy in recession, it's all coming in under the radar.

Don't let this one slip past you America. DON'T ALLOW OBAMA TO CUT MILITARY FUNDING BY 10% .

Breaking News:Obama shows cards on Israel

You don't say. I mean it literally. You don't tell your enemies your strategy or tactics in advance. Why would you give away your game plan. Can you imagine the New York Giants handing the Dallas Cowboys their playbook before their upcoming game? People would be calling for firings.