Showing posts with label Carter. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carter. Show all posts

April 25, 2014

A libertarian hit piece on Reagan? Why?

Nick Gillespie at Reason, in support of a statement by Rand Paul has done a hit piece on Ronald Reagan. The rationale behind it is patently unclear despite the subtext in the article itself about the sooner the GOP gets that, the sooner they will actually be for smaller government. Let me preface my critique of Gillespie by saying that I am normally a fan of his opinions, but in this case, I have to disagree with him.

Here's just the start of what Gillespie says:
"Rand Paul: Jimmy Carter was better on the budget than Ronald Reagan" is how the vid begins. It shows the Kentucky senator in a variety of settings between 2007 and 2009 slagging St. Reagan as a spendthrift.

As Mediaite's Andrew Kirell points out, all of Paul's basic statements about spending under Reagan are absolutely true. The short version: Reagan spent like a drunken sailor and skipped out on the bill."
Ouch. But while Gillespie's concern about government expenditures is completely valid, his arguments fall flat on many levels.

1. Winning GOP voters over to libertarianism by attacking Reagan is just a really, really bad way to tackle it. Legend, lore, myth or whatever it is about Reagan is what it is. Reagan is an icon. Trying to tear it down turns your audience against you right from the start. Imagine trying to convert Catholics to Protestantism (an analogy based on the idea of similar basic tenets but disagreements on some issues) by starting with "Let me tell you what Jesus did wrong." It simply won't work.

2. The idea that Reagan went off the rails on military spending is a fair argument, but only if it is observed in a vacuum. At the time, Iran saw the United States as a paper tiger, incapable of effectively stopping rogue nations from doing what they want in violation of international decency. They had held American embassy staff hostage for well over a year. The Soviet Union was on the march, not only in Afghanistan but during the Carter years, also in El Salvador, Nicaragua, Ethiopia, . Ronald Reagan faced an advancing Soviet tide, and the U.S. had clearly lost the lead in the Cold War, with rising defeatism at home. To not do anything to stop the spread of communism and socialism at the time was to admit defeat. The Soviet Union's efforts at hegemony did not stop when Reagan came to power. He understood that they were an evil empire and needed to be stopped. He also understood, unlike the current president that harsh words or tough talk would make no difference unless backed up by muscle. Speak loudly and carry no stick does not work. Military spending growth at the time was dramatically essential. Not only did it force the Soviet Union to curtail at least overt sovereign incursions, it also made economic sense - he spent the Soviet Union into submission - they could not afford to spend like America did because of the significantly smaller size of their economy. Reagan was clearly thinking bigger picture, even economically, by spending on defense to the point where the Soviet system collapsed. After Reagan won the cold war, the spending could then be throttled back to normalized levels.

3. It's the Congress stupid.  The military spending led directly to the era of the 'peace dividend' and balanced budgets which Bill Clinton was only too happy to take credit for during his administration's tenure. Except that didn't happen until the Contract with America ushered in the first Republican Congress in decades. Because Congress is responsible for budgets - not the president. While Reagan pushed for more defense spending, he clearly was not a fan of bigger government. To foist all of that other spending on him, spending pushed by a Democrat Congress, is misleading.

4. The economic malaise that the economy suffered under Carter cannot be overlooked either. While Carter presided over an economy that languished, Reagan`s economy roared back to life with a vengeance. The spin-off of the military spending no doubt played a small part in that return to prosperity (less so than tax changes and economic policies) as companies supplying the military were suddenly flush with demand, and jobs and growth. I categorically do not espouse government spending with economic growth, but unlike Obama`s `shovel-ready projects` there was clearly a spin-off effect.

5. To paint Reagan as a drunken sailor on spending falls into the category of useful idiot of the left. Gillespie's article is likely intended to disaffect Republican supporters on ``traditional`conservatism while pushing them towards a libertarian view on economic matters. I`m not sure it will accomplish either aim (see point #1). But what it does do is provide fodder for the far left to say `see, even these certain people on the right can see that Reagan was a fool.`` (or a spendthrift or whatever other adjective they care to use). President Reagan wasn`t perfect but he did things with specific purposes and he accomplished in the Cold War a defeat of his enemy without requiring a direct shot. The evidence that Reagan`s ideology was for smaller government is evident in his lowered tax rates but higher tax revenues. It is evident in his actions when it came to problems like the Air Traffic Controller`s strike.

Reagan may have spent more than Carter but looking merely at inflation adjusted outlays is not a sufficient view of their respective presidencies. Even the graph that Gillespie references (shared above) shows Reagan`s spending in growth was in line with a historical trend that does not really accelerate until G.W. Bush. By that measure, every president has been more of a drunken sailor than his predecessor - an unfair accusation, even in a vacuum. But again, Reagan was not operating in a vacuum. There were things that needed to be done that he did. He was laying the foundation for a leaner government down the road. If you read Reagan`s writing and listen to his speeches, it`s clear he wanted balanced budgets, smaller government and wiser government spending. Under Reagan it was a question of him doing what he could during his tenure and his successors then taking it further. Had his successors similarly inclined, it might have succeeded.

My point is simple - leave Reagan alone Nick.  Work your argument a different way and you'll get better results.  Otherwise you are just preaching to the libertarian choir and not winning many converts at all.

September 10, 2012

More bad news

The last couple of posts have had a pretty negative slant. A so-called Republican supporting Obama, and I missed Bill Whittle.  Let me just pile on that negativity for a moment. The latest polling indicates that president Obama received a post convention bounce while Mitt Romney got none, or the intra-convention bounce wore off because of the timing of the Obama coronation purposefully hit the tail end of the Republican convention and didn't allow the Republican's bounce to take hold.  On top of that, in August, the president had overtaken Romney in fundraising for the first time in months and Democrat Super-PACs seem to be ramping up as well.

Bleh. More bad news.

Nevertheless, I remain upbeat.  The polls may shift and the Obama bounce, puffed up by the media may very well turn out to be as transient as Romney's.  After all, Carter led Reagan by 4 points in September 1980.  Mitt Romney's ad blitz has finally started.  They'll need more messaging to add to the blitz, but the dollar amounts they've raised can help turn the temporary tide.  And really, the three debates are really going to be the deciding factor and frankly I like our chances.  Biden will be torn apart by Ryan. And in the Romney-Obama debates there will be no teleprompter for the president to use.  Short of cheating, he'll come up short against Romney.  He has too much to answer for, to account for, to effectively mount a sustainable and strong defense.


August 30, 2011

Another Obama illegal relative?

Democrats Jimmy Carter had his brother Billy.  Democrat Bill Clinton had issues with his brother Roger.  Democrat President Obama had issues with an aunt Zeituni, and now an uncle as well.  I'm not saying it's a Democrat pattern...okay yes I am.

February 11, 2011

On Mubarak's Departure

On Mubarak's departure I'm in a wait and see frame of mind.  In case you missed it, President Mubarak has resigned today as President of Egypt. One one side you've got the possibility of a Muslim Brotherhood, anti-American leaning nation as an outcome and on the other side you've got the possibility of a peaceful transition to a democracy in the Middle East with an unchanged peace treaty with Israel.  The former outcome would be a disaster and the latter fantastic.  Neither outcome is by any means assured.

February 5, 2011

Egypt: What would Carter do?

You have to wonder if President Obama is reading the Jimmy Carter playbook on Iran in dealing with Egypt. Some eerie similarities exist and if President Obama isn't running the Carter playbook then he apparently is one of those condemned to repeat history.  On the other hand, it's quite possible that the Obama administration actually has helped foster the unrest and is seeking to reap what it has sewn.

June 7, 2009

Quick Post: Predicting the Netanyahu Speech

Next week Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, a national defense hawk, will be giving a speech on strategic direction for Israel. Will his position become more conciliatory because of Obama's Mideast trip and speeches?


Short answer - No. President Obama was overseas for 6 days and didn't bother to stop in Israel. Israel, unlike the United States is directly and immediately threatened by the prospect of a nuclear armed Iran (not that the US isn't endangered too). Netanyahu has been scolded to stop the settlements. The President has positioned himself as being a different President and more willing to impose on Israel to secure peace than any President since Jimmy Carter. Already Saudi Arabia is all over that opportunity, asking Obama to impose his ideas for a Mideast peace solution on Israel.

Obama's actions have not made existence any easier for Israel. Don't expect Israel to just roll over and suck up a beating because of an Obama pronouncement. This is not the US Senate Democrats or even the US Senate Republicans. It's a country that has always had to struggle for it's existence. It is populated by a people who are used to persecution and adversity. They are not going to be as moved by an Obama speech to take one for Team Obama just because he's said that Arabs have to recognize Israel's right to exist. They won't be swayed by the supposed messianic image as naive, insulated Americans have been.

No, don't expect Netanyahu to roll over and agree with Obama. His vision and strategic pronouncements will be very different. And if they aren't then we have to really start asking more seriously why Obama is getting his way on everything, domestically or internationally. That's not something most of us are prepared for at this point, because the answers are either not too obvious or just too sinister to contemplate.

May 10, 2009

Obama = Carter - Part II

Pre-election fears



meet post-election truths. On inflation.



On Iran, effete.



Meanwhile, reality continues to intrude;



His hypocrisy is astounding. Those who walked out were expressing their freedom of expression. He listened to the speech of the President and equates that to his own sick diatribes? All those countries walked out because of Ahmadinejad's arrogance and vile racism. But Obama will sit with him.

Weak. And racist. Just like this.

May 9, 2009

Obama's inevitable slide

Early public support doesn't mean Obama's in the clear. It seems there's an almost inevitable slide in popularity of Presidents. From a Gallup report, Obama's ratings seem pretty good right now.



But look what happened to Reagan and what happened to Carter.

Reagan:

As President Reagan prepares to leave office this week, two-thirds of the American people approve his performance over the last eight years, the highest rating given any President at the end of his term since World War II.

The latest New York Times/CBS News Poll showed that Mr. Reagan has maintained this extraordinary popularity by succeeding in the two areas that are central to any President: peace and prosperity.

While 68 percent approved of his overall job performance over eight years, 71 percent supported his handling of foreign relations, particularly with the Soviet Union, and 62 percent backed his handling of the economy. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.
Interestingly, the above results are from the New York times and rate Reagan higher than Gallup did. Gallup has Clinton as the highest final approval rating for a President. While his ratings were definitely decent, I find it odd that they would rank higher than Reagan's.

Carter, according to Gallup's highly reported closing numbers ended in Bush 43 territory.

So while Obama may be flying high now, and he may be reversing earlier trends and eclipsing Reagan's early results, it's what's happening 3 and 4 years in that count for re-election. Remember Obama is offering policy that is like Carter, only further left. 63% to 34% may seem like a long way to fall, but Carter did it. Bush did it too. In fact other than Clinton and Reagan, everyone went down. Obama will too. But by how much?

Going by the Gallup open and close numbers above, the changes look like this:

Clinton +11%
Reagan +3%
Bush 41 -1%
Bush 43 -24%
Carter -35%
Nixon -38%

The press holds out hope that Obama will enjoy Clintonesque numbers (again, the Clinton numbers seem wonky to me). But it is far more likely that popularity will decline rather than rise. Perhaps his fall, buoyed by the parachute of a partisan press, won't be as precipitous as Carter's, but a Bush 43 decline, particularly as his policies kick in, is very possible. That would put him in the high 30's or low 40's. Worse is possible. Given his supposed messianic image, any fall to earth could be hastened by the currently elevated expectations.

Is the fall inevitable? Reagan proved to conservatives it isn't. Clinton proved to liberals it isn't. Obama has the press pumping his ratings for him with it's cheer leading. So Obama could conceivably maintain a high rating. But once the reality of the stimulus package kicks in, with the expanded debt and the expanded money supply and the resulting inflation, it just doesn't seem possible.

Maybe we're wrong on economics. Maybe Keynes was right. Maybe Marx was. Maybe capitalism is really dying and socialism is better. Or maybe, just maybe, like Obama's ratings, the press is high.

May 4, 2009

Obama = Carter

Is Obama recycling the old Carter playbook? On some issues, such as energy it sure seems to be the case.

Most striking, in this quick comparison on the issue of energy policy is the fact that for 4 minutes, Carter didn't say much except that we've got a problem and he wants to fix it. Obama was able to do the same thing in in a 31 second commercial. They've gotten more efficient at pointing out a problem, and offering a straw man solution.

Claims are great when you don't have to back them up with facts or even offer details as to what your solution might possibly be.

Carter:




And Obama;



If you're old enough to remember Carter's admonishment to wear sweaters and turn down the thermostat, you might have the insight already to realize that Obama's urging people to inflate their tires equates to pretty much the same tripe.

The real question is whether President Obama is deliberately taking a mid-East crisis in Iran's nuclear program and trying to leverage it to destabilize the oil supply, and oil prices to further his green agenda, during a time of economic pain. He's a smart guy, he's got an agenda. The thought easily could have crossed his mind. I'm just throwing out ideas here, but it seems to me, these foreign policy gaffes, could either be a sign of incompetence or a sign of mad genius being used for a sinister purpose.
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