Troubled Sunday Coming in Iran?

According a report from PBS Tehran Bureau, the opposition leader from the last election and subsequent uprising, Mousavi, has called for demonstrations on Sunday.  What makes it even more of a concern is the conflict within the Revolutionary Guard:

12:00 p.m./Feb 18 As we described on the eve of the 25 Bahman demonstrations, there was a report that Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, the Revolutionary Guard commander, had expressed his doubt that Guard enlisted men would be willing to use violence against marchers. The Telegraph reports that reluctance of that sort is now being voiced at much higher ranks:

Senior officers in Iran's Revolutionary Guards have written a letter to their commanding officer demanding assurances that they will not be required to open fire on anti-government demonstrators. 

Following the recent violence that occurred during anti-government protests in Egypt, the officers argue that it is against the principles of Shi'ite Islamic law to use violence against their own people.

In a suggestion of a major split within the Islamic Republic's ruling hierarchy over its handling of anti-government protests, the letter has been circulated widely throughout the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards, the body responsible for defending religious system.

The letter, a copy of which has been seen by the Daily Telegraph, is addressed to Major Gen Jafar [...] It calls on [him] to issue guidance to both the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij paramilitary militia to use restraint when handling anti-government protests.

While trouble flares across the Middle East and North Africa in the wake of events in Egypt, Yemen and Tunisia, the biggest questions remaining are (1) how Egypt turns out and (1A) what happens in Iran.

UPDATED: Iranian Elections

Rush Limbaugh today is pointing out President Obama's credit-taking for the 'robust debate' taking place in Iran today. We all know that Obama doesn't deserve credit for that.

But I disagree with Rush somewhat on how tightly controlled Iranian society is by the Mullahs. Yes, it is. And the election process is most likely corrupted. But the moderates sat out the last election - not so this time.

A huge percentage of the Iranian electorate was born post-Revolution. They like 'unacceptable' music and dress. The moderates are in line to win the election. It doesn't mean the reign of the fanatics is over. But it is a positive step if it transpires.

But the credit belongs to the Iranian people, not President Obama.

UPDATE: Looks like the fix is in. Either Iranians really want Ahmedinejad, or the election was fixed. My suspicion is that Mousavi would be the real winner in a fair fight.

TEHRAN (Reuters) - State media declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner of Iran's election but challenger Mirhossein Mousavi alleged irregularities and claimed victory for himself.

The state election commission said early Saturday that Ahmadinejad, a hardline conservative, was ahead with 66 percent of the votes in Friday's election after 21 million ballots were counted.

Ahmadinejad's main challenger, moderate former prime minister Mirhossein Mousavi, had 31 percent, according to the commission, which is part of the Interior Ministry. It said 61 percent of all ballot boxes had now been counted.

Dictator Watch - June 10, 2009

Today we're taking a pre-election look at the improbable end of the reign of Ahmadinejad in Iran. June 12th is the election in Iran.

Breitbart has the following surprising development;

Persian hip-hop thumps from car speakers and young hipsters—men with spiked hair and women in spike heels—dance in the streets.

It's another night and another campaign rally-turned-party for their unlikely hero: a self-styled reformist from the early years of the Islamic Revolution who is now seen as their best hope to defeat hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

But while Mir Hossein Mousavi generates the noise, passion and electricity in Tehran, Ahmadinejad has the backing of the powerful Islamic establishment and deep support in the countryside, leaving Friday's vote too close to call.

Mousavi would appear to have the momentum, drawing staggering crowds and all-night street bashes. But all that noise, fervor and electricity doesn't necessarily add up to a juggernaut, with critical stakes at play, including possible talks with Washington after a nearly three-decade diplomatic estrangement.

The post-midnight raves in Tehran's leafy suburbs are uncorking passions that seem to have caught even Mousavi by surprise. He stood in awe Monday at one end of a nearly 12-mile human chain of supporters along one of Tehran's main thoroughfares, linked by green ribbons and banners in the symbolic color of his campaign.

It's good news for the potential thawing of relationships if Ahmadinejad is ousted. True to the rock star image, Mousavi appears to be headed towards a possible upset.

In the last election in 2005, 20 million moderates sat out, all but handing Ahmadinejad his victory. Iran is one country where moderates would be most welcome. Moderation from radicalism is a good thing. Ironically, the big problem this time around, the reason for the Iranian public's displeasure with their leader, has been the country's economic woes.

Many of his reforms, including gas rationing and capping interest rates that lenders could charge, would not be unfamiliar to those critical of the policies being implemented by President Obama in the United States. Further, in an another eerie similarity, President Ahmadinejad, established a new budget planning body directly under his control, a move that gave him a much freer hand to control and implement his economic policies which have been blamed for driving up prices, in other words, interventionism causing inflation.