My take on the state of the race

A lot of polls being included in the RCP polling average for the swing states, are of little value.  For example the NYT poll does not show a Margin of Error.  When polls exclude details like that, or survey size, for example, they are either not confident in their results or are hiding something. I exclude those polls based on threshold criteria, along with polls that are too small, or include perhaps all adults instead of Registered or Likely Voters, or ones that may oversample Democrats, which often happens.  Those types of polls are not exactly push polls for the respondents but are a form of push polls for the voting public.  For example polls trying to generate astroturfed momentum for Kamala Harris.

I have not in this exercise even looked at the crosstabs and these polls may indeed still be overemphasizing the positive look for Harris. All that to justify what I have included in my polling calculations.  What I have done is aggregated the polls that are worth including (minus the bad crosstabs filter) into a vote total for each state to see what the good polling is actually showing across multiple pollsters with similar, acceptable methodology/disclosure polls.

Here's my criteria (these are relatively loose criteria, but if they were any tighter, there would not yet be enough to share any insights):

 

Here's what I see.

Based on the above, here's what I would project, a Trump win.

Keep in mind there are a number of states that do not have enough polling to report.  Georgia is one such example but others I have defaulted to most likely based on previous cycles.  These include New Hampshire, Virginia, Minnesota and Maine.  These were leaning Trump when he was facing Let's Go Brandon, but have since not shown any polling results.

My honest opinion is that this will break more for Trump by November but that remains to be seen.