As I mentioned previously, I had a problem with the recent NBC/Survey Monkey mega-poll that had Clinton up by 5 points in the national poll. I've excluded it in my analyses, including todays. Interestingly a poll was added, again NBC but this time NBC/WSJ, not NBC/SM, that has Clinton up by 7 points. Only the NBC polls are showing Clinton ahead at this point, almost as if they have an agenda to have her continue to appear to be the frontrunner. But it's a smaller poll and I've left it included in my averages in the chart below. The x axis reflects first half and second half of each month. Excusing the NBC/SM poll (I hadn't even touched on the bias towards the tech savvy respondents in my critique of that poll, but it should be noted), there's a clear trend towards Trump and away from Clinton. As other recent polls come in, we'll see if the NBC numbers are indeed outliers.
Stay tuned for that - especially after the debate on Monday.
The graphic below is a weighted average of all polls by number of respondents. It includes only polls of Likely Voters, where a margin of error has been specified and is 3.5% or less.
(click to enlarge)