September 22, 2016

New polls, new view

As I mentioned previously, I had a problem with the recent NBC/Survey Monkey mega-poll that had Clinton up by 5 points in the national poll.  I've excluded it in my analyses, including todays.  Interestingly a poll was added, again NBC but this time NBC/WSJ, not NBC/SM, that has Clinton up by 7 points.  Only the NBC polls are showing Clinton ahead at this point, almost as if they have an agenda to have her continue to appear to be the frontrunner.  But it's a smaller poll and I've left it included in my averages in the chart below.  The x axis reflects first half and second half of each month.  Excusing the NBC/SM poll (I hadn't even touched on the bias towards the tech savvy respondents in my critique of that poll, but it should be noted), there's a clear trend towards Trump and away from Clinton.  As other recent polls come in, we'll see if the NBC numbers are indeed outliers.  

Stay tuned for that - especially after the debate on Monday.

The graphic below is a weighted average of all polls by number of respondents. It includes only polls of Likely Voters, where a margin of error has been specified and is 3.5% or less.
(click to enlarge)

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