Keystone XL pipeline vs. Trump's tariffs

The Keystone XL Pipeline was a big priority for president Trump in his first term. In 2025, he's imposing tariffs that would impact the pipeline. These two positions are at odds with each other.

An "I'm busy, no-title" post

This week has been a busy week for me and I haven't been able to post much at all.  Unfortunately I haven't lost track of the news cycle, which means I'm up to speed on all of the buffoonery of the current president and his cabal in the congress and senate.  This is the beginning of years of stupid decisions.

Not my president I'm more than happy to report. Even my ultra-liberal Prime Minister here in Canada is peeved at the ...you know, the guy.  The guy whose name I will not speak. 

As I continue to be very busy at work, I'm happy to say I still have a job. Unfortunately it means fewer posts for the short term.  And it flies in the face of my goal for the year of trying to post more essay type content.  But I'll try to continue as best I can until time is more permitting than it is right now.

For now, some common sense from Dinesh D'Souza:

Teamsters dismissing Hillary?

Hillary Clinton came out against the Keystone XL pipeline recently, and now the Teamsters seem to be coming out against Hillary.

Teamsters officials met behind closed doors today. The union refused to endorse Hillary Clinton for president. The officials told FOX News they want to meet with Donald Trump.

Interesting turn of events, but I'd be surprised if they didn't end up supporting Bernie Sanders and should she win the nomination, ultimately her. 

Keystone short by one inch. The good and bad.

The Senate has rejected the Keystone pipeline.  There's good and bad in that.

Sen. Mary Landrieu’s bid to pass a Keystone XL pipeline bill fell short by the slimmest of margins Tuesday, leaving the $8 billion pipeline still on the table for the ascendant Republican Party to push the project to President Barack Obama’s desk in January.

The 59-41 Senate vote was just shy of the 60 votes needed to pass the bill, following a dramatic six days of whipping by the embattled Louisiana Democrat on an issue that almost all of Washington had expected to sit idle until next year.

The defeat deals a blow to Landrieu’s campaign ahead of her Dec. 6 runoff against GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy, whom polls show running comfortably ahead. Winning on Keystone would have helped her demonstrate her clout on the Hill as a champion of her state’s influential oil and gas industry.

The good - the passage would have aided a Democrat who sat idly by on the issue for years and is only pushing it now that she is in deep political peril. She deserves no credit on the pipeline, even if she got it to pass. So the bill's failure will allow Republicans to take credit for the passage when it finally does pass the 60 vote threshold after the new senate is sworn in. A Democrat controlled senate allowing this to come up for a vote now is clearly a political grant to Landrieu, but having done so and not passing it, indicates that even DEmocrats think she's toast.

The bad - there's still no pipeline. The timing for this would have been great because it would have put pressure on president Obama to appear to be willing to work with Republicans right before he poisons the well with amnesty for illegal immigrants. After the well gets poisoned, the president will claim no one can work with these Republicans and he will have no reason to sign a Keystone bill (or any others), so the Keystone pipeline will likely get a veto, and sit undone for two more years.

The interesting -  how exactly did the Democrats get to their calculus on this issue? It's not clear, but Joe Manchin, possible future REpublican was not impressed:

The bill’s failure left a bad taste in the mouth of centrist Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.), who had urged his colleagues in a closed door meeting to support it.

“This was ridiculous for us to [get] 59, one short. It really was uncalled for,” he said.

Political soundbite or true distaste? TBD.

Are Canada's ruling conservatives in trouble?

There's a federal election coming in Canada in 2015.  The Conservative party after having twice governed with a minority government finally won a majority in the last election.  They've been able to govern in a more conservative fashion and play closer to their own agenda than in the past.  But an expenses scandal in the appointed senate, most prominently among conservative senators, has caused voter support to falter.

In conjunction with that, the son of Pierre Elliot Trudeau, Canada's most liberal Prime Minister ever, has taken on the helm of the Liberal party and despite his mammoth lack of experience, he has name recognition and some charisma and is siphoning off voters from both the Conservatives and the formerly surging socialist New Democrat Party.  That's a harbinger of bad news.

What does THIS mean for the Keystone XL pipeline?

It's been noted by advocates of the Keystone pipeline build from Canada to the Gulf Coast that if the pipeline isn't built the Canadian oil will be sent instead to markets in Asia, most particularly China.  While the president continues to ignore and dither over the Keystone build, something happened to Canada's alternate option for its oil experts.

British Columbia, a fairly pristine province, decided it didn't want any part of the Northern Gateway pipeline ostensibly because of environmental protection concerns.  The pipeline was intended to bring the oil from oil rich province of Alberta to the Pacific coast at Kitimat, British Columbia (well north of Vancouver) seaport for tanker shipping overseas.  But the plan has hit a snag.

In its final submission to the Northern Gateway Pipeline Joint Review Panel, B.C. says it cannot support the project as presented because proponent Enbridge Inc. has been unable to address British Columbians’ environmental concerns.

“We have carefully considered the evidence that has been presented to the Joint Review Panel,” B.C. environment minister Terry Lake in a statement. “The panel must determine if it is appropriate to grant a certificate for the project as currently proposed on the basis of a promise to do more study and planning after the certificate is granted. Our government does not believe that a certificate should be granted before these important questions are answered …‘Trust me’ is not good enough in this case.”

While environmental organizations applauded the tough talk, B.C. also said its position on Northern Gateway is not a rejection of heavy-oil projects. It says all proposals, such as Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion or David Black’s Kitimat Clean refinery project, would be judged on their merits.

 While that seems like it's the end of the alternative pipeline and environmentalists have won, it isn't.  Canada will not allow itself to be stuck sitting on a wealth of oil unable to pipeline it to the United States or China, both pipelines are likely to go through eventually.  This is just a setback.  Here's what it really means for both pipelines.

Firstly, not all opposition to the pipeline in British Columbia is environmental.  There is no doubt an underlying profit-sharing motivation from British Columbia.  The government is undoubtedly looking at royalties from Enbridge (the pipeline's owner) in order to allow the pipeline and to prepare for potential risks.  In other words, it comes down to money - they want a bigger share of it.  The government is using the environment as a bargaining chip right now.  What that means for Keystone is a little more tricky.

Environmentalists in the United States now have a new weapon in their arsenal.  They can argue that Canada won't even build pipelines in their own country so why should the United States allow these clearly 'unproven' pipelines to run through so many states?  They can use that as cudgel to hit president Obama on the Keystone decision.  While the president is not up for re-election, Democrats in 2014 and 2016 will be.  If Obama cares about his liberal agenda more than his own legacy (which is debatable) he might just be swayed if he thinks the environmental constituency is larger than the union jobs constituency.  Again, Obama prior to the election didn't make that call, and while he can now, he may try to figure out a way to thread the needle or at least stall as long as possible.  He's voted present on this issue for some time now.

On the other hand, this presents a bargaining chip for those who would see the pipeline built in the U.S.  After all, you could get concessions because you now know Canada's Plan B has been partially derailed.  

In effect, this has turned all of this pipeline development into a five way poker match between Enbridge, British Columbia, TransCanada (the company behind the Keystone XL pipeline), environmentalists and the U.S. government.  Who folds, who bluffs, and who eventually wins will have to wait until the hands get played.

Reason: 3 reasons to build the Keystone pipeline

Reason TV, on why the pipeline makes sense for America.

Great news on gas prices - Obama to tap America's oil supply!

Strategic Petroleum Reserves

Okay that's a little misleading. 

There will be no ANWR reserve drilling, no Keystone pipeline delivery, and no increased near onshore or deep water drilling. There will be no new push for clean coal or natural gas reserves either. There has been no White House Epiphany. Sadly.

But the president is seriously considering tapping America's oil supply - the Straegic National Reserve, to be used as a backstop for national emergencies or for the military should be unleashed on the market to keep oil prices and gas prices overheating before the election. It's all about the election, which means should prices continue to remain high, the president will try to neutralize the issue going into the election, strategic reserves be damned.

That's just great.

Really?

The most undeserved photo op ever:

Remember, you like me.

The president has the gall to stand in front of pipes to announce he's approving the southern leg of the Keystone XL pipeline (after the horse has left the barn).  He's also fond of taking credit for the largest oil production in U.S. history due entirely to the approvals and actions of his predecessors and not in any way, shape or form to his efforts.  Not...at...all.

Some people still fall for this trickery.  Of course years in, they were able to find people who hadn't heard about the O.J. Simpson trial too.

Obama's Horse Already Out Of The Barn

When you close the barn door after the horse has escaped the barn, you aren't really doing any good. Such is the case for Obama with regards to the Keystone XL pipeline.

The decision to go ahead or not with the Keystone XL pipeline should have been made long ago. After years of obfuscation and delay, it should have been made on the last scheduled timeline and not put off until after the 2012 elections.

Obama will choke on this

A proud tradition of protesting intelligent decisions since the 1960s.

Via The Globe and Mail;

TransCanada Corp. (TRP-T42.390.390.93%) said it will spend $2.3-billion to immediately build the southern leg of its proposed Keystone XL pipeline, aiming to fill a shortage of crude supply to refineries while the company works to make the full Alberta-to-Texas line a reality.

Calgary-based TransCanada plans to connect the major North American oil hub at Cushing, Okla., to the Texas Gulf Coast, where giant heavy oil refineries are running under capacity due to shipping constraints from Cushing. The bottleneck has weighed on prices for crude shipped to Cushing, as supplies in storage grow.

While Canada is working on a deal with China, unlike the president, they haven't given up on the U.S. oil market.  What does the president do next? Get spiteful and say that there is no way the oil will ever flow from Western Canada to the Gulf Coast? Or does he cave?  Neither option is politically viable so perhaps he avoids the issue for as long as possible or else he tackles it "head on" by saying another review is still needed and this changes nothing.

That's what happens when you paint yourself into a corner.  The president has left all of the moves with TransCanada and his Republican opponents all the while satisfying no one in his base.  It's heartening to see that no one is knuckling under to the president's ham-fisted mismanagement of this whole episode in America's energy saga.