May 3, 2022

Trump's predicament

President Trump has made no great secret that he wants to run for president again in 2022. But he's in a bit of a tricky situation due to a number of converging factors. 

Firstly as of right now, the GOP are walloping Let's Go Brandon and the  Democrats in generic congressional polling (as of this writing, the Republicans hold a 4.2% lead in the RCP average, an average that most recently tends to understate the margin of victory of the poll leading party see 2018, 2014 and typically understates GOP support).  That's good news for conservatives and an apple cart we do not want to upset heading towards the November midterm elections. It behooves president Trump not to upset that momentum as the Democrats have been bleeding Hispanic and now African American support too.  It's on the best interest of the party right now for Trump to keep a low profile except in strategic races where he can help.  

Secondly Elon Musk is in the process of claiming Twitter. He's vowed to make it more open and balanced and has offered to reinstate president Trump's account (who, thanks to his efforts with Truth Social, has so far declined to return). Let's Go Brandon and the Democrats (not to mention CNN et al.) would secretly love to see president Trump return unfettered to the platform.  They need him as a foil to counter the Democrats' absolutely abysmal record on everything since taking control of D.C.  He could act as a distraction for them, and his brash style most certainly would attract/distract a lot of attention. Circling back to the first point, keeping a low profile is not president Trump's style. Whether it's Twitter or Truth Social, he wants to be in there swinging.  We'll circle back to this point as well.

If polling is to be believed, Ron DeSantis is lined up to produce a crushing electoral win in the coming Florida gubernatorial race.  If logic is to be believed, he's lined up to be an eventual presidential contender either in 2024 or 2028.  If he crushes it in this gubernatorial election the case for 2024 becomes that much stronger, as Trump-hating Allahpundit points out.

That diminishes the window for president Trump to remain quiet, to remain off Twitter if Truth Social is still experiencing birthing pains.  He has a limited window to act if he doesn't want to be threatened as the GOP frontrunner for 2024. It precedes even the window that Allahpundit suggest of January 2023.  Why?  If president Trump appears to sit on the sidelines during the 2022 midterm run-up he hardly exudes leadership.

Conversely, if he does insert himself, he risks giving the Democrats the arch-villain they want for this election.  President Trump is not one to back down from a fight. He's likely to go all in for 2022 and as a conservative, that's something we should be glad about: running from a fight has failed Republicans for decades.  Why go back to that approach now?  So it really isn't a predicament.  We know what media storm is going to come if president Trump inserts his support and speeches into the midterm elections. We know there will be potential polling pitfalls that come with that. But there is also the potential benefit of rallying support around a rebuke of D.C. Trump need only make it about the contrast between his record good numbers and Let's Go Brandon's record bad numbers.  If he can do that in 6 second sound bytes the news is all good for conservatives.  And we still have our secret weapon: Let's Go Brandon is still the one making decisions, and all of them are bad.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Disagreement is always welcome. Please remain civil. Vulgar or disrespectful comments towards anyone will be removed.

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

Share This