November 4, 2020

It's not time to Wednesday morning quarterback

I'm shocked this morning. I'm not shocked not by the results (I was sort of expecting a tight Trump win) but by the weird shenanigans that happened last night and are probably continuing to occur this morning. Philadelphia Pennsylvania and Georgia stopped counting last night as one example. But here are some quick observations:

(1) With a roughly 700,000 vote lead in Pennsylvania and about 1.4 million votes outstanding, I cannot see any path for Biden to win. In order to make up that gap he would need to win 1 million and 50,000 of those votes to Trumps 350,000. That's a 75% ratio.

(2) Fox called Arizona very prematurely.  No one else has called the state.  Most of the outstanding votes are from election day voting, which clearly favors Trump.

(3) North Carolina with 95% of votes reported is not called for Trump. He has a 77,000 vote lead. It will likely shrink but Trump should still win. If Fox was willing to call Arizona already, why not?

(4) Trump is leading still in Michigan, narrowly and trailing in Wisconsin, narrowly. Also, surprisingly, he's trailing Nevada only narrowly.

(5) Trump is leading Georgia 104,000 with 92% of the vote called.

(6) Alaska is not called.  If Trump wins it, and it does not help in the overall victory strategy.

The path to victory for Trump is to win North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania and also one of those razor thin states of Nevada, Wisconsin or Michigan.  The latter seems the most promising so far.  I would expect, no matter what happens a lot of legal challenges from the side not declared the winner.

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