March 5, 2012

Super Tuesday Winners Ahead of Time

Not exciting.
I'm not all that excited about Super Tuesday because it could turn out to be the Romney show and guarantee his nomination.  I still believe he is the antithetical candidate for a Republican win against Obama in November.  Rich, out of touch and stiff, he'll be easy fodder for the Democrats to portray as a cardboard candidate without real values and without empathy.  He'll be demonized in the ceter, the same place Obama is trying to shore up his own credibility.  He's very, very vulnerable in November, and a Super Tuesday win for Romney is more likely than Santorum or Gingrich to seal the fate of the GOP chances of losing the presidency in 2012.

That is not an exciting prospect.  Super Tuesday has me as uninspired as a David Hasselhoff made for TV movie. It's not something I want to see, but because of all the hype, it's going to be on a bunch of channels.  Who knows, maybe the Germans will be excited about it.

All that said, here's how I see tomorrow playing out.


Virginia - Romney: A state that Gingrich and Santorum have been excluded from the ballot, voters likely aren't poised to send a message with a write in candidate. Romney is ahead of Paul in a cakewalk.  That pretty much guarantees the state to Romney.  He should take at least 40 of the states delegates, probably more.

Georgia - Gingrich: This is Gingrich's home turf and the biggest state of the day.  Gingrich should take about 50 of the state's 76 delegates.

Massachusetts - Romney:  This is one of Romney's home turf states, he'll win it handily and take at least 30 delegates out of Massachusetts.

Oklahoma - Santorum:  A socially conservative state, Santorum is ahead of Romney and should take two-thirds of the delegates.

Tennessee - Santorum: Another socially conservative state, but I think Gingrich will glean enough of the vote to make it a squeaker between Santorum and Romney.  Santorum, will take slightly more than a third of the delegates, Romney slightly less and Gingrich should also do reasonably well, and get about 10 delegates.

Idaho - Romney:  Mitt Romney should sweep this state.

North Dakota - Santorum: This is going to be a tight, tight race, but Santorum should beat Romney in a squeaker.  Ron Paul could also do well here.

Alaska - Gingrich:  There isn't a lot of polling data to be found. This is a complete guess.

Vermont - Romney:  This isn't exactly home field for Romney, but it's close enough to Massachusetts to give him the edge here.

Ohio - Romney: This is the big newsworthy prize because it's a large state with a close race and a few momentum shifts.  The latest polling has a Romney surge so I'm picking Romney to win Ohio, late in the night. Santorum should still take a chunk of the delegates, and could have made it even closer if his campaign had been a little more organized.

That's 5 states for Romney, 3 for Santorum and 2 for Gingrich.  Overall, Romney should take about half of all the delegates, and primarily on the strength of Georgia and Tennessee, and maybe Alaska, Gingrich could pass Santorum for second place in the delegate count.  He risks being seen as a regional candidate though which might make the second phase of his third comeback that much more tough.

UPDATE: corrected 2nd place reference to Santorum.  Originally had unintentionally written 2nd place as Romney.
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