July 27, 2023

Justin Trudeau's popularity is in trouble

Justin Trudeau's popularity has finally started to show signs of suffering from his fascism and megalomania and incompetence. But sadly, i am not convinced Justin Trudeau's days are numbered quite yet.  He has an agreement with the socialist NDP party to back his party until 2025.  That's a long time off yet. In light of prime minister Justin Trudeau's recent cabinet shuffle, it might seem like he's getting ready for an election.  A cabinet shuffle is supposed to shake up the government and revitalize it.  At least that's it's positioned as for public consumption.  A cabinet shuffle is window dressing for political gain, designed to convince voters you care about their pain/suffering/plight. But it's not always done right before an election.  Not when you have this sort of popularity deficit to contend with:

Ten points is a big gap. Conservatives are gaining at the expense of most of the other big parties at the moment. Because of the vote splits, at 39% there is a solid chance of forming a majority government in Canada and not needing to form a coalition.  That's where conservatives have been trending. Because it's such a big gap, Trudeau needs time to overcome the popularity deficit.  A faux shake-up offers him a chance to do so, but not in short order.  It will take time. And as mentioned above, he has time.  He has a compliant socialist party who want to maintain their grip on their influencer status. So why would Justin Trudeau choose now for a snap election?  It makes no sense politically.

Beyond all that, his Liberal party knows how to game the system to win, even as underdogs. They have done so quite effectively in the past.  They don't need to make up ten points in polling.  they need to make up about five and then effectively running certain candidates in certain districts they can out-maneuver  the other parties and get a disproportionate share of seats.  Look, it's smart politics; as much as I hate it, I can't begrudge them that.

My hope is that as Justin Trudeau uses the cabinet shuffle to shore up support, the Conservative party does not make the same as in the last election, lean on their polling lead, win the popular election but lose the right to govern.  Hopefully they play smarter this time.  Just as in the United States, Canadian conservatives understand common sense and the principles of governing, but seemingly not the principles of winning.

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