January 8, 2020

Iranian missile "crisis" manufactured by Trump and Iran?

It's a little too perfect.  The president takes out an Iranian terror sponsor general, Iran is outraged (not to the level that the media is claiming, but the leadership there clearly needed to save face).  In response the Iranian government launches 15 missiles at American bases in Iraq.  Not one American appears to have been killed or injured.  Not one.  How incredibly unlikely is that? And now everybody has an out.

President Trump has no reason to escalate the conflict because no Americans were killed or injured - so no further response required - crisis averted. Sure, expect more threats from both sides for a while, but President Trump wants out of Iraq as much as he wants out of Afghanistan and Syria and probably also Korea.  The Iraqi parliament voted to kick out the Americans.  For president Trump and his America first agenda this is a win win. He got a terrorist and the end result is that he gets to bring home American troops without political fallout because it will appear to be Iraq's decision.

Iran looks to it's populace that it followed through on their revenge.  If indeed America leaves Iraq, leaving a vacuum, Iran gets another win - a weakened former enemy in Iran that they can pretty much turn into a vassal state that they control.

President Trump conversely gets the pressure on regional partners like Europe and Saudi Arabia to step up their presence in the region to counter Iran.  In the best case scenario, the Saudis would form an anti-Iran alliance with Israel, thus creating or at least fomenting a de facto acceptance of Israel in the region.

In the absence of American presence Iran gets a period of vacuum in which to operate and further their sinister goals.

In the absence of further response by either side, everyone gets to look diplomatic and restrained.  Iran gets some peace credence and president Trump gets to stuff it in the face of his Leftist detractors claiming this was to be how World War III gets started.  

How is this not a win win for both sides? In fact it has so much upside, you almost have to wonder if president Trump and the Iranians got together and planned the whole response scenario. Or perhaps both sides did the calculus and determined independently that there was a path forward that suited everyone's respective goals.  Or alternatively, Iran is just that bad at war and we got lucky.  Ultimately whether the crisis was manufactured or an accident does not matter, both sides are going to get what they want. 

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