With Cain dropping out of the GOP race and Bachmann
surging in the Iowa polling, maybe it's time for a second look. Bachmann has certainly been consistent in her
conservative principles throughout the race, out-performing Gingrich, Perry, and even Cain in that regard. So where
did her support disappear to in the first place?
The obvious answer is that she peaked to soon. Before
Perry launched his campaign, on the eve of her straw poll win, Bachmann looked
pretty strong (politically). But Perry effectively deflated that before
imploding himself. When Perry started to fall apart, the momentum shifted from
him to Cain instead of back to Bachmann. That's because he had an effective
slogan and beat that drum at every turn, while Bachmann was effective on her
points, she wasn't limiting herself to clear, simple, memorable sound bites.
Given the diminished window she had in debates, she wasn't taking maximum
advantage of her limited opportunity to re-emerge.
Meanwhile Newt Gingrich was very effectively doing just
that and experiencing a soft surge of his own.
After Cain started to falter, the momentum inevitably shifted to Newt.
Now that Cain has abandon his campaign, there is room for Bachmann to try to
pick up some of his remaining support. The Iowa polling shows that she may have
developed some momentum before the Cain announcement happened.
The conventional wisdom is that the race needs a not
Romney and voters have flirted with all the viable not-Romneys in the field,
seeming to settle on Newt.
While Bachmann deserves a second look she may not have
time or opportunity to get it. Gingrich seems to be consolidating his lead of
late, in poll after poll.
Another consideration is electability. That's the knock
on every candidate in the race, even Romney. Defeating Obama is going to come
down to electability more than ideology. Everyone in the race is to the right
of Obama, and most considerably so. But winning the general election requires
the candidate be able to defeat King O.
That comes down to winning over independent voters,
having charisma, and having debating chops. Bachmann is hard pressed on all
three. Independents need some tempering of conservative principles, she is a
solid conservative with a solid conservative message - they may be hesitant to
embrace that. She has charisma, but she
can be negative at times, and her charisma is also rooted in the conservative
base. Winning over skeptics has not (yet) been her strong suit. That's the type
of charisma she needs - an ability to appeal beyond her core constituency.
Thirdly, she has not maximized her debate potential and she has to be able to
do that. The press will be pressing for Obama. He will have a funding advantage
and therefore a messaging advantage, not to mention incumbency. They only way
to counter those home field advantages is to stomp him in the eventual head to
head debates. She has sound bites that are unexciting not to mention very broad
in nature. That's not a winning formula.
Gingrich on the other hand has some ability to create
broad appeal (at least it seems so for now) and certainly has his debate chops.
That he isn't a perfect conservative is apparently being trumped by his ability
to win in 2012.
I'm sure some more support will drift back to Bachmann,
but I don't think it will be enough for a second surge of significant value.
She'd make a good president but I don't think she's ready to be a good, fully
rounded candidate yet.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Disagreement is always welcome. Please remain civil. Vulgar or disrespectful comments towards anyone will be removed.