November 4, 2009

Temperature Check on GOP 2012 Candidates

Back in the spring I did an early analysis (premature, no doubt) on the likely GOP candidates for President in 2012.  I looked at the relative merits of Palin, Huckabee, Jindal, Sanford, Gingrich and Romney.  Things have, to say the least, changed.  It's about time for another premature temperature check.

Next week I'll take a look again at the possible candidates but I'd like to take this opportunity to point out some noticeable changes.  Gone will be Jindal and Sanford and Gingrich.  For various reasons, they are no longer viable candidates.  Of course that is arguable which I'll be discussing my rationale in this post today.  Added to the mix will be Tim Pawlenty and possibly Haley Barbour. Returing for re-evaluation will be Romney, Huckabee and Palin.

Why is Jindal out?  He delivered the Republican response to the first Obama State of the Union address.  It was flat and probably did a lot to torpedo his chances in 2012.  Jindal has a bright future in the GOP and in politics.  He's still young and will eventually surface as a candidate.  But I don't think it will be before 2016, and more importantly, I don't think he thinks so either.  Jindal may run in 2012, but if he does, he's a long shot at best.

Why is Sanford out? In case you missed it, an extra-marital affair in Argentina combined with a borderline missing person case when Sanford went missing for a few days to cheat on his wife.  I don't think that sort of thing will slip past the conservative base.  Unfortunately Sanford has some great conservative ideas and credentials, but he's doomed himself either to at least 2016 if he can repair his image over the long haul, or more likely, he's lost his chance permanently.

Why is Gingrich out? Scozzafava, plain and simple.  He backed not only the wrong horse, he backed a very liberal Democrat in Republican clothing despite the hue and cry from conservatives.  He stubbornly stuck to his I'm right on this attitude until Scozzafava, backed out of the race and then backed the Democrat.  That's not just egg on Newt's face, it's in his pockets, his shoes and all over his hair.  It doesn't seem on the surface like something that is as big as the right is making it out to be, but make no mistake in many quarters Newt is being pilloried for this.  Scozzafava is just the straw that broke the camel's back.  He's also hopped on board the global-warming-scare train.  He's cavorted with Hillary Clinton and in general, come to embody the watered down, beltway Republican that the party is looking to purge right now.  Centrist Republican or right wing Republican, civil war or not, no one wants a bunch of self-serving, unlistening representatives at any level of governement.  Newt, is toast.

Why is Tim Pawlenty in?  He seems serious about running.  He may fill the void vacated by Sanford and Jindal in terms of positioning.  Without Pawlenty and Palin in the race, we're left with Huckabee and Romney.  I don't think the base sees either of those as the second coming of Reagan.  Palin maybe could be. I know a lot of conservatives don't see that in her, but the question you have to ask yourself is why is CNN running polls on her viability for the Presidency and not on say Romney or Huckabee at this point?  But Pawlenty probably sees a real opening, especially if Palin is the favorite next time.

Why is Haley Barbour in? Just because he's been mentioned. I don't know if he would seriously consider running but he'd make another good alternative to have in the mix for the same reasons as Pawlenty.  But it's just speculation on him right now compared to the others who are likely candidates for a Presidential run.

Next Week - the assessments of Romney, Palin, Huckabee, Pawlenty and Barbour.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Disagreement is always welcome. Please remain civil. Vulgar or disrespectful comments towards anyone will be removed.

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

Share This