October 29, 2009

Reading the Races: Virginia and New Jersey

It's been three days since I've had a chance to blog and I'm itching to get back to it.  Unfortunately I haven't had the chance to work on it over the past week or so, I've got about 15 half-baked ideas to work on, and I'm still pressed for time.  But while I have a couple of minutes, I'd like to just throw in a bit about the elections in Virginia and New Jersey this coming Tuesday.

While it looks like Virginia is a lock for a Republican governor with McDonnell opening as much as a 13 point lead on his Democratic opponent, New Jersey seems to be a bit scarier for the GOP. Rasmussen has a paragraph on it here. Chris Christie is clinging to a lead of only a few points over the incumbent Jon Corzine.  That's down from a much larger cushion earlier this summer.  In fact in the latest Quinnipiac poll puts Corzine ahead. Meanwhile some of that anti-Corzine energy is being drained away by the third party candidate.

It would be a shame to see a Corzine victory in New Jersey.  I'm hoping that enough of those opposed to Corzine and leaning towards Daggett will put aside their personal preference and get behind Christie.  Here's why.  A Corzine victory will provide President Obama and the Democrats in Congress and the Senate something to hang their hats on.  They can argue that while they lost Virginia, they still held New Jersey and therefore the split does not portend an anti-Democrat trend in the nation.  They can argue that their mandate has not been lost and that New Jersey was never in play.  On the other hand a GOP sweep of the only two states in play sends a message to Democrats.

Maybe not the President or Harry Reid or Nancy Pelosi, but it sends a message to blue dog Democrats and Democrats in red states to smarten up on health care, on cap and trade, on government oversight and a host of other issues.  Two big GOP wins, will make many Democrats listen.  And it might be just enough momentum to stop this Obamacare thing from going forward in any meaningful way.  Town halls and Tea Parties have made politicians take note (even if they pretend to ignore it). A Christie win in New Jersey however, provides the exclamation point on the sentence that people are not happy with the direction of the goverment right now.  I've got my fingers crossed for a strong conservative statement on election day. That means among other things a GOP win in New Jersey.

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