VP post-debate analysis

Had to watch.

Full disclosure, I watched the Toronto Blue Jays defeat the Baltimore Orioles in the American League Wildcard game last night, not the Vice Presidential debate. Instead I DVR'd the debate and I have not watched it yet.  As such, I have not had a chance to assemble my thoughts on it.  However, I've heard a fair bit of post debate pontification and do have some quick observations about that.

In short order:

(1) Apparently Mike Pence (R) defeated Tim Kaine (D).

(2) This despite the moderator trying desperately to assist Kaine by enabling the interruption of Pence far too frequently.

(3) The MSM are positioning the Pence win as him positioning himself for 2020, not for helping Trump.  In fact, they are floating the idea that Trump is angry at Pence for doing too well and therefore making Trump looking bad by comparison.

To be honest, I think most viewers of a VP debate would be hardcore partisans on either side and not a huge number of Independents and/or Undecided voters (of whom many are low interest voters).  If my assumption is correct, the debate (no matter the mainstream meme about Pence's win being for Pence not Trump) doesn't matter.

More post-debate analysis will follow.

Revisiting my pre-VP debate predictions

Just prior to the vice presidential debate I quickly threw out some high level predictions.  You can see the original predictions and some rationale behind them here.  How did I do?  Not too badly.

Quick thoughts on tonight's VP debate

Just under an hour to go until Ryan versus Biden.  Here's what I expect.

Over/under on Biden gaffes: 1.  Why only one?  The Obama campaign is gun shy from getting stung by Romney on the opening debate.  You'd better believe they've coached the BFDs right out of Biden.  He knows he's not to wander off the script.  But this is Biden we are talking about here.  As much as he tries to stick to the script, under a Ryan counter-point there's a 50/50 chance he'll slip up and offer up some goofball gaffe.

Chance the mainstream media will declare a Biden victory: 45%.  They'll be looking for a reason for a Biden victory, any indication they can cling to, because they want to start the rebound meme. They're worried They can't do it if Biden reverts to form (see gaffes above). But they have an opening.  Biden doesn't need to be the conquering hero, they probably would prefer that Obama does that himself.

Chance Biden makes some outlandishly incorrect claim about Romney or Ryan: 95%.  Ryan, if prepared as much as Romney will be well equipped to refute it.

Chance Biden goes after Romney's flip-flopping: 99.9%.   

Chances the media fact checks every Ryan breath: 100%

Chances the media fact checks 10% of Biden's claims: 0.1%

Over/Under on Biden funny quips: 0.5 (about the same for Ryan)

Chance Ryan wins (excluding media spin): 99.999%

UPDATE:

Over/under on viewers - 23 million