October 11, 2012

Quick thoughts on tonight's VP debate

Just under an hour to go until Ryan versus Biden.  Here's what I expect.

Over/under on Biden gaffes: 1.  Why only one?  The Obama campaign is gun shy from getting stung by Romney on the opening debate.  You'd better believe they've coached the BFDs right out of Biden.  He knows he's not to wander off the script.  But this is Biden we are talking about here.  As much as he tries to stick to the script, under a Ryan counter-point there's a 50/50 chance he'll slip up and offer up some goofball gaffe.

Chance the mainstream media will declare a Biden victory: 45%.  They'll be looking for a reason for a Biden victory, any indication they can cling to, because they want to start the rebound meme. They're worried They can't do it if Biden reverts to form (see gaffes above). But they have an opening.  Biden doesn't need to be the conquering hero, they probably would prefer that Obama does that himself.

Chance Biden makes some outlandishly incorrect claim about Romney or Ryan: 95%.  Ryan, if prepared as much as Romney will be well equipped to refute it.

Chance Biden goes after Romney's flip-flopping: 99.9%.   

Chances the media fact checks every Ryan breath: 100%

Chances the media fact checks 10% of Biden's claims: 0.1%

Over/Under on Biden funny quips: 0.5 (about the same for Ryan)

Chance Ryan wins (excluding media spin): 99.999%


Over/under on viewers - 23 million

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