November 2, 2020

Well, this is it.

Well, this is it. Either it was a great Trump run, or it's the middle of great Trump run. Let me start with the Senate and Congress as far as predictions go, I have not spent much time on these races unfortunately.  I expect the Republicans however, to maintain a slim margin in the Senate +/- 1 seat. Congress I have no clue.  I expect Republicans to pick up a handful of seats but they have an outside, long shot of winning back Congress.  That would be awesome.

As for the presidency, I have two views.  My technical model view, and my tweaked view where I apply some common sense removal of outlier polls. Here we go.

The numbers call -- The day before the election and my polling model is predicting a narrow Trump win with 275 electoral college votes, Biden with 249 and 14 (Minnesota and New Hampshire) too close to call.  Interestingly in the discounting and unbiasing of polls that I perform on the RealClearPolitics polls of swing states, I'm seeing president Trump winning Michigan and Arizona but losing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  The two closest states are Arizona (a win of just ~8,000 votes) and North Carolina (~15,000).

So that's my model.  But it's based on a lot of late breaking polls that once again show Biden with a larger advantage than in the last few days of polls.  So I don't trust it and I have to tweak it a little to come up with my actual projection.

My tweaks -- After tweaking my results to discount polls that look valid on the surface but are very clearly outliers, here's what I see:

Texas (38 electoral college votes): Trump +4, with a vote lead >200,000.

Florida (29): Trump +5.5%, with a vote lead greater than his win in Texas, approaching 300,000.

Pennsylvania (20): Trump +0.9% with a lead of just 32,000 votes, and serious legal (or not so legal) attempts by Democrats to alter the results.

Ohio (18): Trump +5% with a vote lead of >165,000.

Georgia (16): Trump +2%, and a vote lead >50,000

Michigan (16): Trump +2%,  and a vote lead >50,000.

North Carolina (15): Trump +0.8% and a vote lead of just 22,000.  This is another state Democrats could very easily try to steal.

Virginia (13): The pollsters have this a lot higher but I see a Biden win by only about 4.5%.

Arizona: Trump +1% and a vote lead of just 19,000 votes.  Interestingly this is just removing one NYT/Siena poll which is clearly a late stage outlier.

Wisconsin (10): This one is a coin toss, even after removing the late stage NYT/Siena outlier poll. My model calls it for Biden but my gut says Trump. To be cautious, I'll leave this one in the Biden column for my prediction, but I honestly think Trump takes it by about 25,000 votes. Unfortunately I would have to deviate from my methodology too much to make the call for Trump.

Minnesota (10): I have Trump winning Minnesota by 1.7%, or 28,000 votes. 

Colorado (9): With no decent polling I'm just going to leave this in the Biden column. If Trump wins Colorado, the election is going to be a big red wave election. As nice as that would be, I don't see it happening, not to that extent.

Nevada (6): This is a Biden +4% win ( >30,000 votes) according to my model. I think Biden will win it but it's going to be closer than that, perhaps 2% or 15,000 votes.

Iowa (6): Trump +8.  This will not be close according to my model, or me.

New Mexico (5): There are no dependable polls in the state.  They show Biden ahead by double digits. I think he wins by 6% though.

New Hampshire (4): Unfortunately the polls have universally leaned Biden far enough that he seems to have an insurmountable lead here.  While I believe the even the 'valid' polls are overstated, unless the bias is far more pronounced than in 2016, Trump is not going to win the state. I have Biden +8% in my model. My gut says that Biden is inexplicably more likeable to people than was Clinton, so I'm going to leave it as is; a strong Biden win.

Maine (4): This state is going to go for Biden by an even larger margin than New Hampshire.  I have not seen any polls on District 2, but I'm hopeful that president Trump picks it off and gets the 1 electoral vote.

So here's my net prediction - Trump 306, Biden 232, and the president flipping Minnesota in exchange for losing Wisconsin. Trump may even pick up Wisconsin and get 316.

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