October 21, 2019

Trudeau's last days?

Today there is a national election in Canada.  Justin "black face" Trudeau has been plagued with scandals (from political interference in business, to multiple black face incidents, to ministers leaving due to his treatment of women in the political party), but he has somehow managed to rebound in the polls over the last month.  There is a chance that the Conservative Party of Canada could re-emerge victorious after one term of Liberal leadership but the polling all indicates a tight race between the Conservative and Liberal parties.  

All the other political parties have reverted to form as minor players with minimal representation.  But here's the problem - for Conservatives to win, they must win an outright majority of seats.  The NDP, a truly socialist party, and the Green Party would be more than happy to align with the Liberals to thwart a conservative minority government.   Should the conservatives win less than 50% +1 seats in parliament, it's very likely Canada would have a coalition government between the Liberals and NDP (and the Green Party if necessary).  The Bloc Quebecois will not win many seats but an alignment with conservatives is unlikely in any scenario other than where it would give a slim minority and make the separatist party the power brokers in the next parliament.  other party the PPC, which is a populist/libertarian leaning party might align with the conservatives but it's not clear they will win any seats at all.

I think like with the 2016 election in the U.S., the polls are off and while the Liberals might win a majority (a long shot), a minority (possible), or the Conservatives could win a majority (also a long shot) it's more likely the Conservatives win a minority and are ousted by a Liberal-NDP coalition.

As much as I hope these are Trudeau's last days, and they should be, I think sadly, they aren't.

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