August 29, 2018

Q2 2018 GDP revised up to 4.2% from 4.1% - election impact?

President Trump's tax cuts are still winning.  Remember when Obama was president and the revisions were always downward?  Ya, not now, and people feel it.

Is a midterm blue wave coming? I still don't see it.  I'm not saying that you should expect a Republican upset romp like you saw the upset of the century when president Trump trounced Hillary Clinton (unexpectedly).  But I would be less surprised by that than by a blue wave.  I'm expecting modest changes in either direction at this point.  In other words a draw.  The GOP should pick up seats in the senate, congress I'm thinking will be relatively unchanged.  So far.

What it comes down to is whether the Russia collusion garbage outweighs the good economic numbers and real-world impacts of the president's tax policy changes.  I suspect how much both of those matter to voters depends largely on voters' existing political leanings.  In other words this is a base election plus the relative importance of those two issues on independents.  My money is on the fact that enough independent voters will vote with their wallets because at the end of the day, that's what matters.  The evidence of that was the election results of 2016.

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