December 31, 2017

President Trump's message for 2018

President Trump is predicting a banner 2018:

There's no reason to think that he's going to be wrong. Economically at least the U.S, could conceivably see 4% GDP growth, more record stock market performance, even further jobs growth and even a lower than predicted deficit resulting from a booming economy. It likely will be a year of progress on the border wall, as well as perhaps the U.N. reacting not so negatively to everything America or Israel or else face a funding crisis. More conservative justices are likely to be appointed and government will likely to be trimmed further as far as the president is able to do so autonomously. ANWR drilling and the Obamacare mandate removal are two other victories for the president and for America. From an executive perspective, the president has actually seen a lot of success in 2017 and will likely continue to do so in 2018.

On further legislative victories, the path is a little more difficult. It's an election year and legislative candidates will need to spend time consolidating existing victories and touting that success. They will be reticent to try anything else new so close to an election - not because they don't want further victories but rather how those victories will be turned into horrendous losses by the media. A truly disproportionate swath of the electorate actually, and incorrectly think that the president's tax cuts are going to increase their taxes rather than reduce them. Once the evidence in the form of paychecks come in they will change their minds. But that takes time and after months of hearing how terrible it is going to be, a legislative victory in June might not be absorbed impartially by the electorate before November.

2018 promises to offer an historic opportunity for Republicans to consolidate their strength in the senate and hold congress, setting up 2019 for a huge opportunity to advance a conservative agenda. That requires 2018 to be a sales year. Republicans need to spend the year explaining why they have helped average Americans. The coming year will not be a Democrat wave election. But it does represent a risk for Republicans in that they could very well under-perform on the opportunity they have open to them. 2018 should be the year of President Trump the salesman. Based on his recent tweet, he gets that.  Let's hope Republicans follow suit.

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