April 25, 2017

France's Le Pen has no shot of winning the election (à la Trump)

To read the opinion pieces in Western media, Marine Le Pen is a far-right nationalist candidate in France.  She won enough support to make it to the run-off second election.  While she is trailing the other top vote-getter, Macron, by a very substantial margin, so too did Donald Trump trail Hillary Clinton.  Trump as we know, emerged victorious.  So too was the case with Brexit, which was supposed to be a trouncing for the attempt to leave the E.U. but turned out to be a win for the Brexit supporters.

Le Pen is portrayed as a far right candidate.  That's what the media equates nationalism to these days, regardless of nation, regardless of any other factor.  If you are proud of your country, and want to put your country first, you are a far-right radical.  Nationalism is being repressed in subordination to globalism.  Without getting to far down into the rabbit hole of globalism helping a few versus nationalism being self-defeating, France is facing a question of nationalism, just as America and the U.K. recently have also done.

There is nothing wrong wanting to put your country first.  There is problems with radical nationalism just as there is with radical Islam - it can devolve into a hatred for others.  But there is a very, very long walk from issues like border security and trade and jobs to "destroy all others" .  The supposed far right or alt-right desire to fit the latter view is misleading.  This is why Trump won the election.  If the media tells you that you are a crazy loon if you support Trump, and you support Trump, and know you are not crazy, then perhaps the only possible conclusion is that the media is wrong.

Which brings us back to Le Pen.    She has a steeper hill to climb than Trump, and the establishment and practically everyone else is aligned against her and her supporters in favor of an untested newbie with no discernable ability to lead.  Nonetheless he holds a powerful lead, and Le Pen has a short window to overcome it.  Odds are she will not win, and I'm skeptical to put the same faith in the French people's spirit and pride as I do with the American people.  It's possible, and I am hopeful that she can pull out a victory.  France needs to step away from the brink of being culturally swamped by immigrants who hold neither western nor French values or culture in anything but contempt.

Le Pen does not have a 0% chance of winning. She is undoubtedly a long shot but a number of long shots have paid off in the past year. 

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