February 23, 2016

Nevada GOP caucus predictions

Predicting that Trump is going to win in Nevada is not exciting given recent polling. Who comes in second or third also isn't all that big a deal.  What I'm going to focus on is who is going to drop out after tonight.

Ben Carson.  Just a hunch.  But he can now say he lasted longer than Jeb Bush. 

And that's it.  Even though he should drop out to benefit the establishment and also because his chances of winning are approaching zero, Kasich is going to stay in for at least another week.  It's pointless for him to continue, but I don't believe he's going away.  For better or worse, Trump is benefiting from a split field.  Until Ted Cruz drops out, the eventual departure of  candidates will benefit Rubio first, and Cruz second.  

The longer this carries on, the more likely it is that Trump will be the nominee.

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