September 25, 2015

Canadian Conservative fortunes

There are some conflicting polling results in Canada but a couple of bigger polls are pointing in this direction.  The liberal Toronto Star highlights one showing the Conservatives are polling near majority territory from a parliamentary point of view:
MONTREAL—Stephen Harper’s Conservative party has taken a commanding lead in the federal election race, a new poll suggests. With less than a month to go in the campaign, and heading into the first of three leaders debates, the Tories have moved ahead of their rivals with the support of 35.4 per cent of voters, according to the Ekos poll conducted for Montreal’s La Presse newspaper. Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have 26.3 per cent support and the NDP has the backing of 24.5 per cent of respondents. The poll questioned 2,343 people between Sept. 17 and Sept. 22 and is considered accurate to within two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
But it conflicts with another recent poll that still shows a statistical three way tie. It's hard to determine which direction things are heading right now.  But as the election draws near, as the election date draws nearer the conservatives need to pull out a stronger lead, as the other two parties are likely to forge a coalition government given anything short of a Conservative majority. 
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