November 14, 2013

Thursday Hillary Bash - Odds on Favorite


There's a thought that's been keeping me up at night with worry.  It doesn't keep me up all night because (a) I'm not a troubled sleeper and (b) I don't see this scenario happening. 

First let's set the stage once again with the Hillary is inevitable meme.  According to the Las Vegas Review Journal, Hillary Clinton is still favored to win the presidency.
The American presidential election may be three years away, but that isn’t stopping gamblers from placing wagers on who will succeed President Barack Obama in the White House.

William Hill said Monday that a customer in London placed a $2,400 bet with 5-2 odds on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to succeed Obama as president in 2016.

A company spokesman said it was the largest bet placed so far on the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

William Hill has cut Clinton’s odds to 2-1 from 5-2, making her the odds-on favorite.

“This bet on Hillary Clinton, together with a run of support for (New Jersey Gov.) Chris Christie, reducing his odds from 20-1 to 10-1, seems to signal the presidential race coming under starter’s orders as far as political punters are concerned,” William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe said.

As of Monday, the odds to win the election were: Clinton, 2-1; Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., 6-1; former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 9-1; Christie, 10-1; New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 12-1; and Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., 16-1.

William Hill said Democrats and Republicans are tied at odds of 10-11 to win the election, while it’s 100-1 for an independent candidate.
Interestingly, her odds appear to have diminished slightly in the last little while.  Other than Andrew Cuomo, all of the other top contenders are Republicans, which means that odds makers clearly still Hillary as a near lock to win the Democratic nomination.
 
How could Hillary become a lock?  With Bill admonishing Obama to keep his word on Obamacare, the odds may turn back in Hillary's favor as the Obamacare fiasco worsens.  If she really wanted to lock up a victory in the general election, and possibly the Democratic primary, all she really needs to do if this becomes a full blown catastrophe (as is apt to happen) is to mention the words "repeal and replace".
 
I shudder to think how well she'll do if she were to take that stance.  I don't really think that'll happen because she'd be too worried about losing the primary to a Cuomo type.  But if she did, it'd practically guarantee a win for her.
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