January 21, 2012

Is Romney Over?

Bachmann had a surge too early. That's also true for Cain and Perry and for a while it looked like Gingrich was peaking just a smidge too early as well.  Santorum surged at the right time for Iowa.  Each of those candidates for the GOP primary ultimately fell back to earth.  With all of that it looked like Mitt Romney was taking on an air of inevitability.  That's especially true after he won New Hampshire.


But with Romney falling back a bit now, the question I have is this:  Was it just his turn to surge and he's now falling back to earth as well? Is Romney over? Um, no.  But take a look at this.

Via RCP:

 NOTE: Romney in purple, Gingrich - green, Santorum - brown, Paul - orange, Perry - blue, Cain - red, Huntsman - pink.

Note Romney is above his average, and of late trending downward. This RCP is an average over multiple polls and takes time to reflect the rapidly changing race. But take a look at Gallup;

 

This looks a little more like a post-peak, but it certainly is not enough to make a claim along such lines.  But it is a Gallup trend worth watching. I think previous peaks (and valleys) may mean less and less after Florida as more states have their primaries there will be more momentum-driven poll results.

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