Integrity in reporting: latest jobless claims news item doesn't show it.

The most recent weekly jobless claims 'unexpectedly' rose to an 8 month high, of 474,000 last month.  But not so unexpectedly, someone had a ready, but not entirely plausible explanation for it.

With data hinting at a slowdown, no surprise given the phony government spending bulge that made the last  quarters look a little more rosy, the latest jobless claims lend credence to the idea maybe this recovery isn't as massive as a Recovery Summer II advocate would have you believe.

No Adult Left Behind

President George W. Bush had the 'No Child Left Behind Act'.  Now the New York Times is ruminating about employees who have been laid off and are not likely to get jobs again - ever.  That is certainly an issue.  The problem is the New York Times, very liberal solution to the problem.

Happy Tax Day America - Some 'Unexpectedly" Type News

I wish I could say something happier today.  But here are some facts, especially selected to annoy you to the point of sipping up lead and spitting out rivets.

Congressional Comparison

Take a look at the chart below - it compares Congressional Democrats from 1974-1994 against Congressional Republicans from 1994-2006 and against Congressional Democrats from 2007 to present day as a trend over the months those parties had control of Congress, and therefore control of the national budgets.

Predicition: Jobless rate will rise in August

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on September 4th will release the August unemployment figures. Expect the seasonally adjusted numbers to head back up.  That's in addition to further possible layoffs coming from other companies. I fully expect the jobless rate to climb in August to 9.6%, or more. I'm not big on pessimism, but...

In July auto makers typically lay off shifts for part of the summer. That affects the seasonal adjustment. And this year, a lot of layoffs that happened were prior to the regular layoff period, and they were more permananent than in other years. Just as the July statistic did not account for this and therefore understated the real unemployment, the August numbers will be back to reflecting reality.

If that's the case, then the DJIA will probably take a hit.  Consumer confidence likewise will be affected.  Those hoping for a V-shaped recovery or even a U-shaped one could be disappointed.  Some are calling for a W recovery now (ironic, given the monicker of the last POTUS).  I still thinka hockey stick recovery is a distinct possibility, which means years before the job losses reach the mid 2007 employment levels.  It could be well into 2013 before that happens.  Of course that assumes no further unhealthy Obama shocks to the system.