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Taken from the RCP polls, and including only polls that are likely voters, with a sample size greater than 500 or more, and a margin of error less than or equal to 3.5% and polls taken on September 30th or later.
This map would lead to a Trump win with 306 electoral college votes, the same as in 2016. I think this time around he may do better than this shows at the moment.
NOTE: Applying the same logic to national polls, Kamala Harris appears to still be leading in the popular vote, but not by a great margin.
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