May 30, 2024

Trump NY trial; my take

My assumption about the New York Trump trial has been that in the big picture (macro) view, it doesn't matter.  To elaborate, if he is convicted, it is at best only going to make a minor difference with voters; some will switch their support away from Trump, and more or fewer will switch their vote towards Trump but most of it has already been baked in to voters' minds. As for the criminality, there will be an appeal process where it will ultimately get overturned. The prosecutors and judge must know that too, given their bold disregard for due process in the trial; this was always only about aiding the election chances of Let's Go Brandon.  Conversely if Trump is acquitted in this initial stage, there will be virtually no impact on the vote. Same if there is a hung jury.  There will be no retrial, before or after the election; it's pointless no matter who wins the election (with a bit of caveat on that).*

As I said, that has been my assumption.  But as the jury deliberations continue, despite my still held assumptions, I cannot help but get nervous about the outcome of this sham, kangaroo court, railroading of Donald Trump for political malfeasance.  Stories like this one do not help with my nervousness:

I realize there are a lot of other takes out there both towards acquittal/hung jury and guilty verdict. I've taken all of them with a grain of salt, since they are opinion driven takes. For some reason this one made me nervous.

*If Trump somehow loses the election, they may still want to convict him to keep any other outsider from trying to come in an disrupt the establishment. They may want to send a message in that vein.  But Trump will still be acquitted on appeal.

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