December 4, 2023

Predictions of Trump 2024

Depending on who you ask, outside of the Mainstream media, there are a variety of positions people hold on whether president Trump can retake the White House in 2024. The mainstream media has hinted at worry about a Trump re-election, but they still mostly maintain, at least in their presentation, that Let's Go Brandon has been a great president, and at most, Donald Trump is a minor worry.  A few examples of this follow:

Vox magazine in April said that Biden’s presidency had “an exceptionally productive first few years.” The Atlantic magazine likewise declared the first two years of Biden’s presidency as “among the most productive of any president in the past half century.” Jonathan Lemire of Politico said on “Morning Joe” that “Joe Biden’s first years in office were extraordinarily successful.”

Wow, you'd have to be spectacularly insulated to believe that tripe.  Unfortunately many voters are that insulated from reality. It in fact may have been "extraordinarily successful" if you look at it from the perspective of Xi Xinping, or similar types. No, what they hope is that their literal propaganda in support of Let's Go Brandon is extraordinarily successful. 

But once you step outside of those trying to influence a particular outcome, you get a very different perspective. Kurt Schlichter for example, a DeSantis supporter who would solidly support Trump if he were the nominee had this to say:

I still remain unconvinced that Donald Trump is likely to win in November 2024. In my view, way too many people irrationally hate him and will never vote for him. But I could be wrong. There’s evidence that I am, coming from competent people who do not have an interest in twisting their analysis to fit some preconceived result.

His longer form summarization seems to be that Trump is not the favorite, but nevertheless, very well could win in 2024.

Sean Trende at RCP, whom Schlichter references in his piece, has a slightly different take.  He thinks it's too far out to speculate, but:

These all make for fun speculation and are useful reminders that if a week is a lifetime in politics, then a year is, well, a very, very long time. Analysts should, of course, feel free to indulge in gaming out the possibilities.
But when the conversation returns to what we do know, there honestly is only one correct answer: Trump can win this election, and is well-positioned to do so.

He's more optimistic and seems to feel like, as of this moment, president Trump could be considered the favorite.  The caveat, is the time; the election is almost a year away. Sean Trende is a numbers guy and his interpretations are not to be take lightly.

The betting odds at RCP make Trump the prohibitive favorite to emerge from the GOP primary.  The GOP primary of course is not the White House.   And between the party's nomination, which Trump is highly likely to win, and the general election, you can expect a barrage of negative stories on the president from the same lie-peddlers who relentlessly assaulted his character from 2015 until, well, now.  But if he is the nominee the barrage will be insane. The field-tilting for Democrats will reach new heights (you know that of which I speak). The lawsuits may only simmer since they have been having the opposite effect Democrats have intended. But there will be new, unforeseen, malicious attempts to derail president Trump's 2024 bid. It's a long way to the White House, and while president Trump's chances are looking better than ever, those of us fighting to save America had better realize how difficult it will be.  It's not just polls, it's voter registration, it's a better RNC chair, better donations, better get out the vote efforts, better legal preparation etc.  It's a lot of things that conservatives still seem underprepared to face and do. I like president Trump's odds at the moment, but this moment is only one of many between now and election day.  A lot can go right or wrong between now and then, we need to plan for teh former and prepare for teh latter.

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