October 18, 2023

More thoughts on Trump vs. Brandon vs. RFK Jr.

When RFK Jr. announced an independent run for president, I wondered if it would hurt or help president Trump's chances in 2024. At the time I thought it was too early to tell.  I still feel that way now but I think there are some preliminary impressions to be gleaned.  Red Eagle Politics takes a stab at breaking down some of it.  I also have some thoughts about how Democrats will use this in 2024, which I will discuss below.

Coming out of the 2024 election, there are two likely scenarios at this point assuming the nominees end up as expected as of today; (1) Trump is elected or (2) Let's Go Brandon is re-elected. The latter scenario is only likely in the event that RFK Jr ends up taking more votes from Trump than Brandon. 

In the former scenario, Trump winning, the chances are high that no candidate will reach the 50 percent voter mark. Democrats will argue that since that is the case, Trump has no mandate to do anything.  Even without a divided but victorious GOP  in the house and/or senate the president will face yet more legal obstacles to any policy item.  The GOP and president Trump must be prepared for that fight. The media will carry the 'no mandate' water for Democrats as far as they can. 

If Brandon ekes out a win, the reverse will be true.  The argument will be he needs to bring disaffected Democrats who voted for RFK Jr. back into the fold be being conciliatory with them and then he will have a true mandate.  The media will carry the water again, claiming he is doing just that, as he continues to placate the far left and obfuscate any chance for real criminal justice for his crime family (or any other Democrat), while maliciously and irresponsibly prosecuting anyone who disagrees with them or dares question them. In other words, establishment BAU (business as usual).

Getting back to the election impact, I am not beyond believing Democrats have set up RFK Jr. as a pseudo Manchurian candidate to suck independent votes away from Trump, while he still truly is a dyed in the wool leftist.  He certainly is a rabid environmentalist and the common ground with libertarians centers predominantly around anti-vaccine mandates.  It's a convenient situation for Democrats if he can drain just enough Trump support.  After all, he did drop his Democratic primary challenge against Let's Go Brandon to run as an independent.  That in itself raises a red flag. It can be argued that he may achieve more success this way, but is sure helps Let's Go Brandon by him doing so.  Food for thought.

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