July 21, 2023

Kerch Strait bridge attack - bad for Russia?

Strategically, this latest attack on the Kerch Strait bridge is bad news for Russia according to Peter Zeihan:

I know the popular conservative position on Ukraine is now hands off. I understand why. In some measure, I agree.  But Russia is still a belligerent actor, and a geopolitical threat to a stable world. Seeing Russia collapse to a nation incapable of international aggression would be a good thing. While a far more nuanced way to assist would be better and smarter, some manner of support for Ukraine in what appears to have become a war of attrition and logistics is beneficial to America, as well as the civilized world. 

If that comes in the form of intel and perhaps the occasional bridge attack that minimizes risk to American military personnel, it should be a no-brainer.  When you factor in cost of sending equipment, we are in a different conversation.

For starters, the same Let's Go Brandon who wastefully left billions of dollars of equipment in Afghanistan, is the one spending billions here, billions America truly cannot afford. This is where NATO partners could, and should step in to help.  If they don't have the wherewithal to supply equipment themselves, they could purchase equipment from the United States to share with Ukraine.  There are plenty of ways to do it.

Russia is a nation in decline, economically, geopolitically and demographically.  They are lashing out with this Ukraine incursion as part of an effort to stave off that decline. It will not work, but if the aggression goes unchecked they will keep at it as long as they can.

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