April 10, 2023

Don't fall for the anecdotal

In 2016, Donald Trump won the presidency, somewhat handily, despite the deep state collusion against him.  I was skeptical because of polling, despite the anecdotal evidence that he was drawing huge crowds, and people were responding enthusiastically.  Polling was predominantly not on his side.  I figured it was going to be a close election, not a Hillary Clinton blowout. I thought either candidate could win but it would be close.  The anecdotal evidence of crowds and the enthusiasm gap proved to be correct.

With the same situation in 2020 with president Trump drawing large crowds and Let's Go Brandon sequestered in a basement somewhere or talking to a dozen or so cars it was tempting to fall for a president Trump blowout win.  I did.  So did many other pundits.  The anecdotal evidence was clearly incorrect that time around.  

As conservatives it seems like we are relying on the anecdotal again, heading into 2024.  While I want this to be true as much as the next MAGA Republican supporter, we can't fall for it being the narrative, and certainly not rely on it.  We are no longer in 2016 and we have seen the lengths the left and the deep state are willing to go to prevent his winning again.  We cannot fight the battle 2016 style. It won't work.

As heartening as it is to see that, it's not a strategy.

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