November 2, 2022

My latest take on RCP polling

Previously, my take on Real Clear Politics (my rationale explained briefly here) showed Republicans up by a whopping 5.5% on the average of their polls I felt were worth inclusion.  That's slipped a little bit but still showing a healthy GOP lead in the generic congressional ballot.

Here's my latest take on the available polls, 3 new ones have been added by RCP - NPR/PBS/Marist (R +3%), CBS News Battleground Tracker (R +2%) and CNN (R+4), with the largest sample being the CBS News poll and also having the smallest Republican advantage.  All three have brought the average Republican lead down.  

Keep this grain of salt in mind: all three newly added polls are from Democrat-favoring institutions.  This could be damage control.  I actually don't mind that as long as conservatives and like-minded independents do indeed get out and vote.  Why?  Because the alternative false narrative they could provide would be worse and the Left is missing that opportunity (unless the idea is already in play on a broader scale than we realize).

Here's what they would do if they were not so blindly and bitterly partisan;  start inflating the Republican advantage in these polls to ridiculous levels (R+12%, R +9%, R+11%) and then when it inevitably comes in short of that range, say at R+5%, the narrative could become that voters wanted change but at the last minute realized that they really didn't want a Republican majority and many voters pulled back and as 'reason took over' decided to revert to their true inclination to vote Democrat.  That narrative would keep the Democrats are the true majority notion alive, whereas sayin it's R +2% and then it turns out it ends up as R +5%, they will have to admit they took a deserved drubbing.

Or of course, they could just start to blame Biden. 

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